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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: WiiU to hit 10m sold after E3 2015

 

WiiU to hit 10m sold after E3 2015

Before E3 119 60.71%
 
During E3 15 7.65%
 
After E3 62 31.63%
 
Total:196

Whatever, It's Christmas season and I feel optimistic, I'll say 10m before e3.



nice

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bonzobanana said:
No major third party support next year although I don't think the previous titles had much impact. It does however mean that consumers will know immediately the wii u isn't supported before purchase.

I personally don't think Nintendo will bring out another home console just a handheld with easy connection to a tv. I just can't see them investing in a major new design with cutting edge technology and I think they realise they can't come to market with another weak offering. I think they'll stick to handhelds perhaps with a customised android os and phone features. Unless they can partner up with a company that could offer streaming services and Nintendo offer the game content for a new game console. I'm a wii u owner myself, in fact I have two but I think its in for a rough year. Next christmas may be a clearance christmas for wii u.

The handheld that connects to TV idea is out, recent comments at financial reports suggest they won't do this. They talked about having their handheld and console being more unified like "brothers", having them "absorb" the Wii U architecture and having multiple "form factors".

This is somewhat vague and obviously is up for interpretation, perhaps they will simply have a smaller gap in power compared to previous generations and with both having the same architecture they can pump out games at a faster pace or have more cross-platform titles. Or perhaps they will go for the Vita/Vita TV approach where both devices have essentially the same hardware and share all the same games, each piece of hardware costing the same so it just comes down to whether u want to play on the go or on a TV. Either way they have pretty much ruled out the handheld that connects to a TV approach.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Well if it gets to 9 million by the end of the year and does at least 50K/week for all of 2015 leading up to E3 2015 in June then it will reach 10 million by E3. It is still possible since it has been selling over 50K since the end of October and Nintendo is going to continue to release their franchise games every month. But the Wii U was supposed to get to 10 million by the end of this year and sadly that is no longer possible. 



mZuzek said:
And I believed with Mario Kart and Smash it would be through 10 million this year... these holiday numbers are absolutely depressing.


They are depressing, Nintendo has to step it up. I don't hardly ever play the system because of everything it lacks.



Seece said:

So it looks like WiiU is on track to hit 9m (with a bit of luck it could do a little higher) by 2015. I looked at how long it took WiiU to sell 1m from Jan 4th~ this year, and it takes me to June 14th.

If WiiU maintained the same level as early this year, my prediction should come true.

WiiU does have a more consistant slate of games in Q1/Q2, but then nothing as big as Mario Kart to push hardware (which pushed 300k out of that 1m in the last 3 weeks of this period).

However, If Nintendo price cut before E3 this could destroy this prediction.


I don't think they will be cutting cost any time soon,  no matter what they are going to do, they are not going to see a massive upshift in sales. So I think if they where going to lower cost, they would have already done it for this holiday season.

Also if Xbox keeps the price at 350, this will also be cutting into Nintendo's sales, sense they are essentially so close in cost. So I'm going to say it will hit 10,000,000 after E3, I hope I'm wrong but I think sales are going to drop of hard because of the lack of a price cut.



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I think that it will, but you guys need to recognize that having 10M sold by the consoles' 3rd year on the market is fucking depressing, especially when you consider that the PS4 is very close to reaching 20M just after one year on the market.



I'm now filled with determination.

vivster said:
ExplodingBlock said:
If Smash had been bundled it could have hit 10m by January

Please explain that logic to me. Who would've bought the additional consoles? Do you think there are Smash fans that just didn't buy a Wii U because they couldn't have the game in the box?

If it was bundled, it would have had the same effect as Mario Kart 8, but also the holiday boost. Some people here thought it would rach 10m by the end of December



AnthonyW86 said:
benji232 said:
SocialistSlayer said:
its worth pointing out that many nintendo fans, didnt even believe nintendos forcast and claimed the wiiu would easily clear 10 million this year, even 12 million.

well it looks like nintendo didnt low ball its estimates, and actually again overestimated (as they do every year it seems).
it appears the wiiu wont even sell 9 million by the end of the year, let alone 10.

and it looks like it doesnt have a chance to even come close to matching the gamecubes sales. ive been saying all along it would beat it, but its going to sell significantly less than what i even thought, less than 15 million is a real likely possiblility.
it wont come close to the pipe dream that many nintendo fans still hold on to of 30-50million (which was a laughable estimate 12 months ago, and just crazy now that many still hold on to that estimate)

Actually, they are right on track to hit their target (if not beat it by a small margin). Last year, they shipped 1.99m consoles in Q3. This year, we can expect a 10-20% increase in shipments yoy. So that would put Q3 shipments at 2.3-2.4m. They already shipped 1.1m lol... You really believe that Nintendo won't be able to ship 100-250k consoles in Q4? 

I do agree with you that wiiU LT sales are going to end up under 15m though (it's in my sig).

 

Actually in the past two years there were hardly any Wii-U's shipped in Q3. The remaining holiday stock simply was enough for the fourth quarter. And i fully expect Wii-U sales to drop hard after the holidays as they did the previous years. There is also the possibility that Q3 this year will end up lower than last year.

I still expect the Wii-U to meet Nintendo's forecast, but it won't easily beated as most had expected when the forecast was made.

Q4 2013: 390k

Q4 2014: 300k

This year, to meet it's forecast, they would have to ship roughly 100-250k in Q4 (assuming they ship roughly 2.2m which is almost garanteed). I'd say that there is next to no chance that Q3 shipments go down YoY. Europe and US are up YoY. And that's where Nintendo always send most of their shipments. The decline in Japan will easily be offset by those 2 regions. 

With that said, I can't see them beating their forecast by a signicant margin. I think their going to be either spot on or very close (like 3.7m). But I also can't see their Q3 2014 shipments being down YoY lol. 

I guess we'll find out soon enough.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

DonFerrari said:
benji232 said:
SocialistSlayer said:
its worth pointing out that many nintendo fans, didnt even believe nintendos forcast and claimed the wiiu would easily clear 10 million this year, even 12 million.

well it looks like nintendo didnt low ball its estimates, and actually again overestimated (as they do every year it seems).
it appears the wiiu wont even sell 9 million by the end of the year, let alone 10.

and it looks like it doesnt have a chance to even come close to matching the gamecubes sales. ive been saying all along it would beat it, but its going to sell significantly less than what i even thought, less than 15 million is a real likely possiblility.
it wont come close to the pipe dream that many nintendo fans still hold on to of 30-50million (which was a laughable estimate 12 months ago, and just crazy now that many still hold on to that estimate)

Actually, they are right on track to hit their target (if not beat it by a small margin). Last year, they shipped 1.99m consoles in Q3. This year, we can expect a 10-20% increase in shipments yoy. So that would put Q3 shipments at 2.3-2.4m. They already shipped 1.1m lol... You really believe that Nintendo won't be able to ship 100-250k consoles in Q4? 

I do agree with you that wiiU LT sales are going to end up under 15m though (it's in my sig).


Why are you expecting raise in Shipments when YOY there haven't been much increase in sales???

Actually, there has been a raise in sales YoY in Europe and US. The only place that is down is Japan. Also, I do believe that Nintendo pointed out that BF week was their biggest week ever for WiiU sales. I think that their going to somewhat maintain that momentum going into December and probably see a sales boost of 20-30% YoY in december's NPD and in Europe. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

During E3 12m



Prediction: Nintendo Switch sells 100 million until the end of 2021