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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why x1 will not win US even at 329$ CROW THREAD

One of the major problems with using the Infoscout data is that its scope is to limited. What I mean by that is the questions asked skew the data in a way that cannot be determined unless there was a more broader subject discussed.

Case in point, if someone asked me did I purchase my X1 for my kids, I would say yes. If that person also asked did I purchase the X1 for myself I would also say yes. As a family man, I have multiple motivations when purchasing a product. As for the X1 it fit nicely as something I could buy at a price point the wife would not complain, that the kids will enjoy. It also has a price that allow me to purchase multiple gamepads which is another expense and still be under the price of the PS4.

The key is that stating the PS4 is the grownup console cannot be extrapolated from the data using infoscout results. The whole basis of the OP relies on the theory that sales of the X1 increase because of family purchase for kids but that theory has way to many wholes to come to a reliable conclusion.

The one main constant that can be used is price. If you are a parent and you are looking for a home console system that pleases everyone, price makes a big determination before anything else.



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kinisking said:
TheBlackNaruto said:


Did you actually read the OP or did you just comment first? I mean not that I agree but it was a sound analysis and made a lot of sense. But your comment makes no sense if you actually read the OP that's all.

Not going to lie I didn't read the OP at all.i simply know it's most likely wrong so I don't want to waste my time 


But if you didn't read it then how could you KNOW it is most likely wrong? And if you didn't want to waste your time then why did you take the time to comment on a topic you didn't even read? Doesn't that automatically make it a waste of time? Again nothing wrong with disagreeing but to say something is wrong without even reading it comes off as a little bit bias and silly don't you think?



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@mymuro
and this corresponds to the other poster vance.
the problem is, parents buy because the demographic cant afford it otherwise
yes, surely there is a percentage that exists, but a parent is generally gping to buy a console for a kid during Christmas.
this follows with the demographic and christmas popularity.
nintendo has the youngest audience, and for the past many years has had the biggest increase in holiday numbers.
360 had the second youngest and the second highest increase
ps3 had the oldest and the least increase.
additionally except for 2010, this is conversely true with sales during the year
ps3 highest, 360 next, wii last
So ps sells most during the main year, 360 next, wii last and the opposite becomes true during christmas.
can you think of any other reason other than presents for kids?
This is matched yet again by infoscouts report that most wiiu were bought for kids. Etc.

I mean, if you think there is some other explanation than these sales are increased because parents are buying for kids I would love to know. Price drop? When dropped to 399 it dropped back to its regular weekly. There is one explanation that solves all these problems elegantly and that is the present theory.



Gamz said:
Captain_Tom said:
cpg716 said:
Two factors that might change this....

1.) With more children getting the Xbox One this holiday, they will talk about it with their friends more. This could build it more with the younger generation. PS4 seems to skew older as it is..

2.) The PS4 sold SOOO well in its first year.. that sales might slow down heavily going into next year.. The Xbox One will likely stay at $349.. that price point might continue to help boost sales now.. where people were waiting to buy before..


1) I mean the same goes for every PS4 purchase as well.  People talk at every age bracket.

2) I disagree.  The PS4 sold very well before any of its "Biggest Hitters" came out, and so you would think now that it is going to get all of its big game sales will increase instead of decrease.  We are far from the point of saturation.

In regards to 1 I think younger kids gear towards Xbox because of Mindcraft on the 360.   I know my kids ages 7 & 5 all they ever talk about is minecraft and Xbox.  They have no idea what Playstation is.   


That's funny because all my younger cousin and her friends talked about was Minecraft on PC and Android.  Minecraft is on ALL platforms.  In fact it has sold almost twice as many copies on mobile, and 50% more on PC.

Nobody is getting an Xbox to play Minecraft lol.



@Machiavellian
so the people have been responding in the exact same incorrect pattern for 5 years?
Infidelity has been doing this for a while now.

The data about ps3 and ps4 being older demographic is supported by Nielsen which is a service which tracks what you do on your tv.

Dont go about condemning data we have. Otherwise you cant really argue anything. When the numbers prove me right, it doesn't necessarily mean the data was right, but it will mean I used the data to correctly predict it.



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theprof00 said:
binary solo said:

You didn't read the Op did you? Or if you did you completely failed to understand its thesis. Not sure what's worse, failing to read or failing to understand.

@OP your logic is interesting, however it fails to account for one thing. There are roughly 100 million young'uns in the USA, roughly 40% want a game console, roughly 25% of those want a xb one and roughly 40% of them are not especially fussed about what console they get. That means roughly 26 million kids and teens who have birthdays evenly spread through the year. That means 200k birthdays per week spread over 5 years is 40K consoles per week as birthday presents, minus 10k for consoles bought for Xmas means 30k consoles. The price skew puts xbone at an ongoing weekly advantage which can mean xbone > PS4 most weeks.

Over 5 years, assuming that every kid gets one. Many kids don't play video games or some buy both. And a lot don't get consoles for birthday but something smaller. I only got consoles for xmas for example. Also, I don't entirely understand your numbers either, what about kids who want a ps4? Main demographic only means the largest portion, not 100%

Yeah, that's why I roughly estimated that 40% of the roughly 100 million "kids" want (and will get) a console during this generation. So the consumer pool of kids who will get consoles is about 40 million. That might be high or it might be low, but if the console market as a whole in the USA is about 80 million then half being of he dependant child variety (at least at the time the console is purchased) feels about right.

I guessed 25% of kids want a Xb one, 40% are flexible and will be happy with whatever, leaving the other 35% as either explicitly wanting WiiU or PS4. If you want an estimate there I'd say 15% Wii U and 10% PS4. But all 3 companies are really marketing to to the 40% who are happy to go with any console. PS4 is at a disadvantage with that 40% right now, because of price. If a parent is not directed by the child to get console A, then when the (non-gamer) parent goes out to buy a console they will mostly buy on price and / or the console bias of the shop assistant they're talking to.

It is probably true that parents will prefer to defer a console purchase until the holidays, because that's when the best deals are available. This is why it's important to release games with kid appeal all year 'round. Firstly it keeps console sales ticking along 52 weeks of the year instesd of 12 weeks, and secondly it shifts sales to a more profitable time where specials and bundles don't squeeze the margins. When you relase, say, Mario Kart in June it means kids with birthdays in the weeks after that will agitate for a Wii U because they want Mario Kart NOW!!!!! And as long as the parents aren't on a strict budgets they will often cave in.



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The main sku of the winter was AC4/5 then there was limited COD, SSO and leftover non bundled skus. I wouldnt say that a company selling 3 of 4 skus with Mature games is selling just for kids, I cant imagine those numbers being accurate and I would guess a lot of people who bought for kids(X1 and PS4) also bought for themselves. In fact Sony is the only company that offered kids skus.



Getting an XBOX One for me is like being in a bad relationship but staying together because we have kids. XBone we have 20000+ achievement points, 2+ years of XBL Gold and 20000+ MS points. I think its best we stay together if only for the MS points.

Nintendo Treehouse is what happens when a publisher is confident and proud of its games and doesn't need to show CGI lies for five minutes.

-Jim Sterling

it all depends on price of course but obviously xbox won't keep up with nov/dec sales but i think the point that some people make that many 360 users will upgrade to an XOne does hold true in the US,i can see them leading but luckily for the PS4 they will basically be much closer than the PS3 ever was,which is so important in the US market,tons of money to be made



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Captain_Tom said:
Gamz said:
Captain_Tom said:
cpg716 said:
Two factors that might change this....

1.) With more children getting the Xbox One this holiday, they will talk about it with their friends more. This could build it more with the younger generation. PS4 seems to skew older as it is..

2.) The PS4 sold SOOO well in its first year.. that sales might slow down heavily going into next year.. The Xbox One will likely stay at $349.. that price point might continue to help boost sales now.. where people were waiting to buy before..


1) I mean the same goes for every PS4 purchase as well.  People talk at every age bracket.

2) I disagree.  The PS4 sold very well before any of its "Biggest Hitters" came out, and so you would think now that it is going to get all of its big game sales will increase instead of decrease.  We are far from the point of saturation.

In regards to 1 I think younger kids gear towards Xbox because of Mindcraft on the 360.   I know my kids ages 7 & 5 all they ever talk about is minecraft and Xbox.  They have no idea what Playstation is.   


That's funny because all my younger cousin and her friends talked about was Minecraft on PC and Android.  Minecraft is on ALL platforms.  In fact it has sold almost twice as many copies on mobile, and 50% more on PC.

Nobody is getting an Xbox to play Minecraft lol.


I never said people are buying Xbox's for Minecraft.  I'm saying the mindshare of Xbox and Minecraft is very strong.   For obvious reasons it being one of Xbox biggest sellers and the biggest seller on consoles.  It was a real get for the Xbox last generation and buying it doesn't hurt either.



why the x1 will not win US even at 329 is quite simple not only have i made the thread about it not winning US this gen way b4 the gen started http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167395&page=1#45

but its simple mathematics if the ps4 can sell more than the xb1 while the ps4 was 399 all of 2014 and with imo a lackluster SW lineup there should be no problems maintaining and widening this lead as time goes on

most of the posters on here dont know or cant even understand the sales the PS4 is going to have in the US when uncharted 4, tlou2 mgs, next god of war ect release aswell as when sony drop to 299

 

what MS have done in Nov and dec of 2014 are just little bandages they wont have any offence when sonys real exclusive titles release and when the ps4 drops in price theres gonna be a point in price range where MS price being under the ps4 wont matter



                                                             

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