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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Has Wii U Reached Full Market Saturation?

Well, it could still yet get a boost if it launched in China and India.

It's of course overdue for a price cut too.

I wouldn't be surprised near the end of the WiiU's lifespan, we get some kind of fully portable version of the console. Who really knows how well that could do?



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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One of the biggest issues for the Wii U is that it was selling at a $299 price point last November and $299 price point this year. It's too expensive for what they are offering. Sales will pick up as the price decreases but due to their inability to be aggressive, best bet is an Ltd of 20-25 million console sales.



" Rebellion Against Tyrants Is Obedience To God"

I always though this holiday will be its peak but I've changed my mind.

Its still pretty expensive and still lacks large number of system sellers. I think there is a fair portion of Nintendo fans who are holding off til later. Im one of them.

Holiday 2015 it will hopefully be quite a bit cheaper and a lot of the more casual nintendo fans looking to get it as a secondary console will finally pick it up with zelda and every other desired game out by then.



Yeah, I'd say that I basically agree with everything that's been said here. Maybe the Wii U hasn't quite reached it's peak yet, but it's getting awful close. Also, as other have said, Nintendo would probably just be happy at this point to see massive numbers of software sales even if hardware sales flatten out.



Well there will inevitably be a price drop, which will be huge. They already anounced a very LATE Smash bundle on the cheap to unload excess stock of immovable 8gig models.

I expect next holiday to be pretty big. Lower price point, larger library, Zelda U and possibly Metroid U. Xenoblade may be delayed until the holidays for NA as well.

Call me crazy on Metroid but:

Nintendo was dropping a lot of hints about wanting Retro to make Metroid, including the Metroid pin by reggie and Iwata saying they loved their work on Prime and would love them to make more.

Shortly after DKC:TF, and even a little before its release, Retro began work on another project. The head guy said they were working on a secret project, and nobody has gotten any information on it since.

Assuming a ~two year development cycle, the launch window for the game they're working on could be released during the 2015 holiday season.



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At this time it needs a price drop. I'd say 220$ for the deluxe bundle would be a good start. That's what I paid for mine new from a guy that won the system and totally worth it. The Xbone could be bought for 330$ with games and the WiiU was still at 259$ on sale, that's too close in price



Experimental42 said:
Well there will inevitably be a price drop, which will be huge. They already anounced a very LATE Smash bundle on the cheap to unload excess stock of immovable 8gig models.

I expect next holiday to be pretty big. Lower price point, larger library, Zelda U and possibly Metroid U. Xenoblade may be delayed until the holidays for NA as well.

Call me crazy on Metroid but:

Nintendo was dropping a lot of hints about wanting Retro to make Metroid, including the Metroid pin by reggie and Iwata saying they loved their work on Prime and would love them to make more.

Shortly after DKC:TF, and even a little before its release, Retro began work on another project. The head guy said they were working on a secret project, and nobody has gotten any information on it since.

Assuming a ~two year development cycle, the launch window for the game they're working on could be released during the 2015 holiday season.

You could be right, but I think if there's a Metoid game in 2015, it'll be for 3DS, not Wii U. As you said, it's likely a 2 year dev cycle for Metroid U, and since they probably began work on it in Summer '14, it'll probably release in Summer '16. 



WiiU will be a slow-burn console. I think Nintendo will drop the price after holidays, and that will keep low but steady sales through 2015.
The device will still be around for at least two years.

Lifetime sales? I´d say something around 20 million worldwide,



SJReiter said:

You could be right, but I think if there's a Metoid game in 2015, it'll be for 3DS, not Wii U. As you said, it's likely a 2 year dev cycle for Metroid U, and since they probably began work on it in Summer '14, it'll probably release in Summer '16. 


Well Retro started working on their "secret" project in January. January 2014-December 2015 is pretty much 2 years. Throw some crunch time in and I could see a decent sized game being developed in time for Black Friday 2015.



SJReiter said:

I don't want this to sound like just another NINTENDOOMED post, but I think this is a discussion worth having. So yesterday we learned that the Wii U was up 10% in sales over last November. This modest bump came despite the fact that Smash Bros, one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, had just released. In addition, there seems to be more positive feelings around the Wii U lately, with the apparent strong 2015 lineup. There were also some great games that had been released throughout the year (MK8, HyWa, Bayo2, etc.). All of these factors should have led to the Wii U greatly increasing it's sales YoY, and yet, we only saw a 10% increase over what most people considered to be a pretty terrible 2013 holiday for the Wii U. I think it's worth discussing whether the Wii U has essentially reached the peak of it's market saturation, at least in the US. I mean, it's not like software sales have done poorly, with a 90% increase over last year. This indicates, however, that most of these software sales are coming from people who already have Wii Us, and these new games aren't really encouraging people to buy Wii Us. Obviously, the Wii U will continue to sell at some rate throughout it's lifespan, but I can't help but wonder if November 2014 was the month that officially confirmed that the Wii U basically reached the limits of it's market saturation in the US. 

Wii U is up about 10% YoY in Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Sep, Oct, Nov. It's only May-Aug that are up by a decent margin which is solely do to releasing the Mario Kart during a time that had nothing in the prior year. If 2013 had a major release in May/June than we would likely have seen only a modest YoY increase from Mario Kart.

Overall Wii U is up 270k YoY in the US, about 50% of that is from May/June alone and about 75% of that is from May-Aug. Wii U is only up by about 60k from Jan-April and Sept-Nov.

We can only attribute the big mid-year increase do to releasing one of their biggest franchises at a time where 2013 was suffering a drought.



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