because they bought it thinking the price would go back up so possibly would have held off till $300

No, I don't think it will. They know sales will be awful if the price goes back to $399 but they don't want to announce a permanent price drop just yet since they want people to keep buying X1's.

Probably for a short time because Microsoft is stupid

Im going to say X1 @ $379.99 MSRP

Not sure they are losing anything at $349 and no added games.  The cost of the system at launch was less than what they were selling it for.  After they dropped the Kinect, they skould have been in the black by $30-50 (at the $399 price point).  But, the $349 with games has to be a loss for sure.

The most accurate estimates we have said that at launch it was $396 to make without the Kinect. That of course also makes no mention of development costs.

Even now it's highly unlikely that they are making any money at $349 even without games.

Like I mentioned earlier, I don't know if it makes sense for them to keep the price so low just to be competitive in one or two markets.

I know that none of us really know the true number, but the term accurate estimate is kind of funny if you think about it.

I would think that M$ would be able to source parts pretty cheap, especially a year into making it.  Also, most of these situations that those estimates come from are truly a guess.  How could anyone know what the cost of a component being ordered in the 10's of millions would be?  They can look at what the cost would be in the 1000's maybe, not the 10's of millions.

we will just never know...  

So, like all #'s used in the forums, I will just make up my own numbers to suit my purpose.  Just like everyone else.  I can be no more or less accurate than what those estimates were at launch.

This is a price cut not a sale.The only way they can sell consoles is to practically give it away by bribing consumers.It's really pathetic.Everyone who bought one before the price drop got ripped off.There are no good exclusives,the controller is trash as is the OS and its weaker compared to the PS4.

As one of the few people who paid $399(in my case the Sunset Bundle) I am going to say no. Though I admit that at first when Microsoft announced the limited price cut I was a little disappointed... in myself actually because I actually waited until I think the 15th of September, two weeks before it's release, that I preordered it. I didn't cancel my preordered because I didn't really felt like cancelling it XD. Then when I saw how the white xbox keeps selling and selling out I felt glad I didn't do it since I couldn't find the white xbox in some target or Gamestop stores. Also since there is no news or backlash regarding the price cut from early adopters I will assume it won't happen if they permanently keep it  at $349.

Hhhmm...good point, perhaps, educated estimate is a more appropriate term.

I wholehartedly disagree with your analasys of this situation though. Those numbers are from IHS, a rather large market research firm with significant experience in this sort of thing. It's hardly the same as someone on a forum pulling numbers out of their butt.