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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo HDS 2016 or 2017?

 

Nintendo HDS When?

2016 102 30.72%
 
2017 230 69.28%
 
Total:332

Probably in 2017 along with the next console



XBOX ONE/Wii U/3DS/PC

RIP Iwata 12/6/1959-7/11/2015

Thanks for all the great memories!

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zorg1000 said:
How powerful do u guys think the 3DS successor will be assuming it releases in 2016-2017?

Considering that 3DS is somewhere between PSP & Wii in terms of power, I would say HDS (or whatever it's called) will be somewhere between Vita & Wii U in terms of power or roughly equal to 360/PS3 but with more RAM (perhaps about 1gb)


With Fusion, Nintendo is moving more towards the middle so I expect a more powerful HH than their usual. I think it'll be more powerful than nvidia shield, around 150-250 gflops.  Since the Wii U gamepad was 480p, I expect at the very least, a bump to quarterHD or 540p.  If ninty were to do perfect scaling then their HH specs multiplied by 4 should be their home platform (roughly 800 gflops or just over 2-3x Wii U).    It all depends on ARM APU advancements and what deal Ninty can get from AMD.



teigaga said:
the_dengle said:

2016 would be a terrible move.

Why so?

Terrible is a strong word..

Waiting til your system is literally not selling is quite a bad move and 3DS is down YOY everywhere I believe and software is drying up, theres no reason why the in 2 years time it will still be selling like hotcakes. Introduce a successor a few years into its decline seems the smarter move, as opposed to releasing it after the system is dead.

Because as others have pointed out it's very similar to what they did with the DSi XL --> 3DS, and that was a mistake. 3DS successor needs some breathing room. Otherwise all the air will have been sucked up by the New 3DS.



the_dengle said:
teigaga said:
the_dengle said:

2016 would be a terrible move.

Why so?

Terrible is a strong word..

Waiting til your system is literally not selling is quite a bad move and 3DS is down YOY everywhere I believe and software is drying up, theres no reason why the in 2 years time it will still be selling like hotcakes. Introduce a successor a few years into its decline seems the smarter move, as opposed to releasing it after the system is dead.

Because as others have pointed out it's very similar to what they did with the DSi XL --> 3DS, and that was a mistake. 3DS successor needs some breathing room. Otherwise all the air will have been sucked up by the New 3DS.

I dont think New 3DS is gonna be a huge seller, ya it will have a strong launch but its primary purpose in my opinion is to slow down the decline rather than cause a significant boost. 3DS is on track to sell like 10 million this year, next year will probably around 8 million and 2016 would be like 5-6 million, 2017 would be like 3 million.

Rather than wait for 3DS to completely die, they need to release it while the system still is selling at least decently. They don't have to announce it so far in advance like Nintendo usually does for new hardware. They could give New 3DS the spotlight for all of 2015 then announce the next-gen hardware in Jan/Feb of 2016 then release it in late Spring/early Summer giving them about 5-6 months between reveal and launch.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

I dont think New 3DS is gonna be a huge seller, ya it will have a strong launch but its primary purpose in my opinion is to slow down the decline rather than cause a significant boost. 3DS is on track to sell like 10 million this year, next year will probably around 8 million and 2016 would be like 5-6 million, 2017 would be like 3 million.

Rather than wait for 3DS to completely die, they need to release it while the system still is selling at least decently. They don't have to announce it so far in advance like Nintendo usually does for new hardware. They could give New 3DS the spotlight for all of 2015 then announce the next-gen hardware in Jan/Feb of 2016 then release it in late Spring/early Summer giving them about 5-6 months between reveal and launch.

It has already completely supplanted the regular 3DS in Japan. It will do the same in the West, because that is what Nintendo wants. They aren't giving the old 3DS models price drops, they're discontinuing them.

Almost all 3DS hardware sales for the next year will be of the New models. Many of these buyers will be on their second or third 3DS. And Nintendo is supposed to sell these same gamers yet another new handheld the next year? That's a terrible strategy. The DSi took the wind out of the 3DS's sails and the New 3DS will do the same for the 3DS successor if Nintendo approaches it the same way.



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teigaga said:
the_dengle said:

2016 would be a terrible move.

Why so?

Terrible is a strong word..

Waiting til your system is literally not selling is quite a bad move and 3DS is down YOY everywhere I believe and software is drying up, theres no reason why the in 2 years time it will still be selling like hotcakes. Introduce a successor a few years into its decline seems the smarter move, as opposed to releasing it after the system is dead.


To be honest a big mistake they made with both Wii U and 3DS is both those system's came out 1 year too late. They let the previous generation run too long and basically lost all momentum they had. Not saying that would've made the Wii U a big hit, but 2012 was waaaaaay too late. 

If 3DS had launched in 2010 and Wii U in 2011 I think they'd be in a better position right now than they are. 

Nintendo fans will always be rabidly interested in all things Nintendo, but what happened is the less hardcore Nintendo fans started to find more exciting things elsewhere (Kinect! iPhone! iPad! Android!) and what Nintendo was offering looked stale and dated by comparison. 

Waiting until your previous system is completely on its deathbed is a stupid strategy. But hey I guess the 200 Nintendo fans on message boards who think "the longer a life cycle for a console the better!" got their nice cookie reward even though Nintendo paid dearly for lost momentum. 



teigaga said:
the_dengle said:

2016 would be a terrible move.

Why so?

Terrible is a strong word..

Waiting til your system is literally not selling is quite a bad move and 3DS is down YOY everywhere I believe and software is drying up, theres no reason why the in 2 years time it will still be selling like hotcakes. Introduce a successor a few years into its decline seems the smarter move, as opposed to releasing it after the system is dead.

Just cuz its yoy down from last year  doesn't mean it will heavily decline again from this year to the next (2014⇒2015). 3DS first 3 years were all 12mil-14mil sold. This year it should be around 7.5mil-9mil sold (currently around 6.2mil). Thats not bad for 4th year and 5th year N3DS should keep the decline to a minimum. I say 7mil-7.5mil 3DS will be sold in 2015. It might even be up....

As for SW drying up... Really? SSB 3DS+ORAS say hello. Next year could have many million sellers as well. There's still Software to come in 2015



tbone51 said:
teigaga said:
the_dengle said:

2016 would be a terrible move.

Why so?

Terrible is a strong word..

Waiting til your system is literally not selling is quite a bad move and 3DS is down YOY everywhere I believe and software is drying up, theres no reason why the in 2 years time it will still be selling like hotcakes. Introduce a successor a few years into its decline seems the smarter move, as opposed to releasing it after the system is dead.

Just cuz its yoy down from last year  doesn't mean it will heavily decline again from this year to the next (2014⇒2015). 3DS first 3 years were all 12mil-14mil sold. This year it should be around 7.5mil-9mil sold (currently around 6.2mil). Thats not bad for 4th year and 5th year N3DS should keep the decline to a minimum. I say 7mil-7.5mil 3DS will be sold in 2015. It might even be up....

As for SW drying up... Really? SSB 3DS+ORAS say hello. Next year could have many million sellers as well. There's still Software to come in 2015


Anything under 10 million is *horrible* for Nintendo. 

They have not had handheld shipments that low in almost 20 years. The last time their handheld shipments got into that range, Yamauchi greenlit the freaking Virtual Boy (lol) because they needed something else to sell. 

That's not a sustainable number of sales for them to earn the types of profits they want especially not when their console division has also gone to crap. 

People always bring up the GBA-GCN days but even they were clearing 16-20 million GBAs a year + 4+ million GCNs. To ask them to go down to 7.5 million 3DS + maybe 3 million Wii Us ... is a disaster. 

If they can't even hit 10 million this year ... that will be one bitter pill for Iwata and co. to swallow.



Soundwave said:
tbone51 said:
teigaga said:
the_dengle said:

2016 would be a terrible move.



Just cuz its yoy down from last year  doesn't mean it will heavily decline again from this year to the next (2014⇒2015). 3DS first 3 years were all 12mil-14mil sold. This year it should be around 7.5mil-9mil sold (currently around 6.2mil). Thats not bad for 4th year and 5th year N3DS should keep the decline to a minimum. I say 7mil-7.5mil 3DS will be sold in 2015. It might even be up....

As for SW drying up... Really? SSB 3DS+ORAS say hello. Next year could have many million sellers as well. There's still Software to come in 2015


Anything under 10 million is *horrible* for Nintendo. 

They have not had handheld shipments that low in almost 20 years. 

That's not a sustainable number of sales for them to earn the types of profits they want especially not when their console division has also gone to crap. 

People always bring up the GBA-GCN days but even they were clearly 16-17 million GBAs a year + 4+ million GCNs. To ask them to go down to 7.5 million 3DS + maybe 3 million Wii Us ... is a disaster. 

Was there mobile/tablets f***ing with HHs in all those years though? They earn profits on its SW, not selling a couple million more HW. (yes i know it helps, but its not the entire picture).

Ok i get the past, but we are talking right now. Have you seen recent SW sales? Then there are other factors as well. 3DS under all these conditions are doing alright for itself. Dont kno why you think it HAS to do these amazing numbers :-/



Soundwave said:

Anything under 10 million is *horrible* for Nintendo. 

They have not had handheld shipments that low in almost 20 years. The last time their handheld shipments got into that range, Yamauchi greenlit the freaking Virtual Boy (lol) because they needed something else to sell. 

That's not a sustainable number of sales for them to earn the types of profits they want especially not when their console division has also gone to crap. 

People always bring up the GBA-GCN days but even they were clearing 16-20 million GBAs a year + 4+ million GCNs. To ask them to go down to 7.5 million 3DS + maybe 3 million Wii Us ... is a disaster. 

If they can't even hit 10 million this year ... that will be one bitter pill for Iwata and co. to swallow.


Even DS shipped less than 8M, so why is horrible?



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