Good boy. Perhaps when you go for the third lap you could, like, run a little?

Poor you... :/

This thread and our conversation is specifically about Japan so please leave out global sales/releases. Metroid Prime 2 didn't release in Japan until 2005 so that game is out.

It doesn't matter that Twin Snakes sold like shit, it was still a major release for GC in 2004 just as Wonderful 101/Bayonetta 2/Devil's Third are considered major releases for Wii U despite selling like shit or likely to sell like shit.

Pikmin 2 sold virtually the same as the original in Japan (560k) so no decline there.

Also while yes Zelda is a huge worldwide release, it has not been a very huge series in Japan for quite some time now. It use to sell over 1 million back in the 80's/90's but Twilight Princess/Skyward Sword only sold 600k/370k.

Star Fox has declined with each and every installment in Japan and with the series being dormant for nearly a decade, it's hard to see the game selling very strongly.

Basically hear the comparison for GC 2004 vs Wii U 2015 in Japan

Paper Mario/Mario Tennis=Mario Maker (Mario spinoffs)

Mario Party 6=Mario Party 10 (same series)

DK Jungle Beat/Konga 2=Kirby/Yoshi (novel concepts with DK games selling similar to Yoshi New Island/Canvas Curse)

Twin Snakes= Devil's Third (major 3rd party collaboration that will likely sell poorly)

Pikmin 2=Star Fox (hardcore yet relatively niche genres)

Naruto Clash of Ninja 3/Xenoblade Chronicles X (hardcore Japanese oriented games, Naruto on GC actually sold much better than Xenoblade on Wii)

That leaves Splatoon & Zelda which I already explained Zelda is no longer a huge franchise in Japan and Splatoon is an unproven, new ip although it does have potential.

While I agree with u that Wii U 2015 lineup is better than GC 2004 lineup in Japan, we are talking about sales here and GC sold 600k in Japan in 2004, Wii U will likely sell about 750-800k in Japan this year, which is down from last year with Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros releasing and are some of Nintendo's biggest series. That means Wii U will likely be down next year so about 600k seems pretty likely.

[1] star fox has declined coz the quality has declined. as i said, starfox adventures (the last rare game on a nintendo home console) had a lot of expectations. it did not meet them. in hindsight it was a harbinger of the rare decline to come, as was dk 64, but whatever. if quality returns to this series, which it hasn't since 1997, there's absolutely no reason why it cannot settle in somewhere between the snes star fox and the n64 one. it is a hardcore game, but the wii u has not had a hard time appealing to the nintendo hard core, i.e., the same people who buy star fox, zelda, etc.

[2] paper mario and mario tennis are not really comparable. they are mario spin-offs but paper mario has shown greater longevity and great sales potential as a series. the only mario tennis game that sold exceptionally well was mario tennis on n64, which sold 2.32m. otherwise, many mario tennis titles, even on more successful platforms, have done badly, settling in at around 500k (true both of gba, gbc and 3ds mario tennis games). not one paper mario game has ever sold below 1m. in fact the least successful was the first, after which every single one (of three) sold over 2m, with super paper mario selling an astonishing 3.66 even tho it didn't conform to ttyd/original paper mario gameplay. even the indisputably shitty sticker star sold over 2m. no way are these two franchises comparable, let's not kid ourselves. mario maker, which is what you're comparing them to, is completely unproven. if anything the closest thing to it nintendo has released is mario paint for the snes. that sold 2.75m [.71m in japan] btw. don't strain to create parallels where there are none, it undermines your already wafer-thin argument.

[3] no dispute here, mario party always does exceedingly well for them (this is the only one of your equivalencies that isn't a false one, which is appropriate coz as you point out, they're the same series)

[4] c'mon. jungle beat and donkey konga were completely new properties with (then) bizarre controls. they are some of the worst selling dk games ever (tho they still did ok for all that). comparing this to yoshi and kirby is downright irresponsible. kirby i think will probably do 800k-1.2m (~.33-.45m in japan based on canvas curse sales) depending on price point (there have been some rumblings suggesting a 39.99 price like captain toad, which would i think make it more of an impulse buy). yoshi however i think stands a chance to be the best yoshi game (not much competition) since yoshi's island. good-feel are proven to consistently make million sellers, even when it's a weird wario land game (shake it/shake dimension), which despite the fact that no wario game had been released in 6+ yrs, still sold 1.14m. kirby's epic yarn sold a whopping 2.02m [.5m in japan]. i think yoshi will sell somewhere between these two, 1.2m-2.0m and will probably be the go-to platformer of 2015 (there aren't many others). jungle beat and donkey konga were budget curiosities to most people upon release (even tho jungle beat is in some ways a dry run for the galaxy games and terrific in itself). kirby and yoshi are not.

[5] devil's third has something which twin snakes did not which is a multiplayer mode. in fact i think this, like splatoon, will be disproportionately focused on the multiplayer element (tho splatoon will probably have an interesting story mode, judging from the recent story trailer from the last direct). i don't know how it will do. but depending on how bayonetta 2 does (and it's done pretty well so far, charting no. 1 in na on its release week with only two days of sales), and whether this is well-reviewed (it's itagaki, who did make ninja gaiden black), it could do anywhere between your lowball figure of 400k and 800k (probably closer to where zombiu did, which i think will end up being 800k and is already 730k).

[6] i'm not going to comment on this, it's self-evidently absurd. i'll just reiterate your own equation: pikmin 2 = star fox.

[7] again, naruto clash of ninja 3 = xenoblade. ok dude. xenoblade chronicles x will do well in japan; the reason xenoblade didn't do well in the us was the limited distribution deal with gamestop/ebgames in canada. this will be widely released. that's nowhere near the same thing. it's like expecting a cult movie that's only showing in la and nyc to do as well the avengers. not happening. xenoblade is getting the avengers treatment in 2015. it'll be one of the three blockbuster jrpgs of 2015--persona 5 and ffxv being the two others. and it's going to outsell persona 5 because xenoblade has already, with all its distribution handicaps, outsold every single persona game to date globally, and all but two in japan.

i agree with me too, i think it's much better and there are actually more games--possibly another paper mario title will be announced in a few hours, animal crossing, etc. all million sellers on gc, paper mario 2.25m. animal crossing especially is riding new leaf's wave of popularity. i think animal crossing u could be the definitive title for the series. we'll see tho.

tl;dr stop making silly parallels coz it helps no-one and it cheapens the discussion

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Traitor.

Nice achievement.

Maybe a price drop can help it reach other milestones....... I´m betting Nintendo will drop its price after holidays worldwide.

Next Milestone, 5 million by end of 2015

By the way... we still don´t know when Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem will be coming. Those two are popular franchises in Japan. If that game comes in 2015, who knows if it will help to drive a few more units ?

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