Wii U reaches 2 million units sold in Japan - Media Create

[zorg1000]

jetforcejiminy said:

zorg1000 said:

jetforcejiminy said:

zorg1000 said:
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Media_Create_sales_figures

According to this Gamecube was right around 3 million at the end of 2003 (it's second full year) while Wii U will likely be around 2.2-2.3 million by the end of this year.

One other thing to take note of is that GC launched in Sept while Wii U launched in Dec so GC has a couple extra months on it by the end of their 2nd full year.

but look at its third and fourth year. gamecube crashed. partly because after an initial onslaught of games (mario sunshine, wind waker, metroid prime, in addition to probably nintendo's biggest first party launch, with wave race, luigi's mansion etc. and melee within two weeks of launch) the games dried up. the situation has been the reverse for the wii u, and its 2015 looks a heck of a lot better than gamecube's 2004. (best part is when gamecube sold least was when it was cheapest--$99.99.)

Well I'm not sure Wii U will sell better next year than GC did in 2004 for Japan. Last year Wii U sold about 900k in Japan and it's currently down YOY by about 100k so we can estimate year end sales to be about 750-800k, depending on the boost that Smash Bros can cause in the final 4 weeks. That would mean Wii U will be down YOY despite having big releases like Donkey Kong, Mario Kart & Smash Bros which are some of Nintendo's biggest hitters.

Next year's lineup does look good but in terms of games that can move alot of units, I'm not so sure. Games like Kirby & Yoshi are 2nd/3rd tier franchises and likely will sell to existing users, Mario Maker has potential but with NSMBU/Luigi U/3D World already out it seems like the Mario fanbase is already on Wii U, Splatoon is another game with potential but is an unproven new ip, Zelda hasn't been very big in Japan for quite some time now, Star Fox is a wildcard we don't know anything about it really so I'll hold judgement on that, I have a hard time seeing Devil's Third selling well. Pretty much the only game that seems like it could be a really big system seller is Xenoblade X.

So I kinda expect Wii U to be down YOY again in 2015. 900k in 2013, 750-800k in 2014, 600k in 2015. Perhaps in can match GC 2004 sales but I can't see it doing much more.

Edit: actually the GC lineup wasn't horrible in 2004.

March-Metal Gear Solid:The Twin Snakes

April-Pikmin 2

July-Paper Mario:The Thousand Year Door

October-Mario Power Tennis

November-Mario Party 6/Naruto:Clash of Ninja 3

December-Donkey Kong Jungle Beat

It's not bad and is comparable to the known titles for next year.

twin snakes sold like shit (less than 500k). pikmin 2 was a huge decline from pikmin (+400k less, or more than 35% of pikmin's sales). jungle beat, while a terrific game, was viewed initially as a novelty and sold accordingly, selling only 25% of what the last major dk game did (dk 64). this is in no way comparable to a new zelda game (which routinely sell 4m+, even on the gc), or a new star fox (which sold almost 2m even when it sucked in star fox adventures, with star fox 64 selling 4m+). paper mario (2.25m) and metroid prime 2 (1.33m), which you missed, were the must-own titles that year. neither sold well compared to the previous installments.

2004 was a bad year for the gc globally, let's not pretend otherwise. the wii u's 2004 was actually 2013, when there were no games rather than the embarrassment of riches the gamecube had at launch. smash, sunshine, metriod prime, wind waker in the same 12-16 month period! and then mario kart at the end of 2003!

This thread and our conversation is specifically about Japan so please leave out global sales/releases. Metroid Prime 2 didn't release in Japan until 2005 so that game is out.

It doesn't matter that Twin Snakes sold like shit, it was still a major release for GC in 2004 just as Wonderful 101/Bayonetta 2/Devil's Third are considered major releases for Wii U despite selling like shit or likely to sell like shit.

Pikmin 2 sold virtually the same as the original in Japan (560k) so no decline there.

Also while yes Zelda is a huge worldwide release, it has not been a very huge series in Japan for quite some time now. It use to sell over 1 million back in the 80's/90's but Twilight Princess/Skyward Sword only sold 600k/370k.

Star Fox has declined with each and every installment in Japan and with the series being dormant for nearly a decade, it's hard to see the game selling very strongly.

Basically hear the comparison for GC 2004 vs Wii U 2015 in Japan

Paper Mario/Mario Tennis=Mario Maker (Mario spinoffs)

Mario Party 6=Mario Party 10 (same series)

DK Jungle Beat/Konga 2=Kirby/Yoshi (novel concepts with DK games selling similar to Yoshi New Island/Canvas Curse)

Twin Snakes= Devil's Third (major 3rd party collaboration that will likely sell poorly)

Pikmin 2=Star Fox (hardcore yet relatively niche genres)

Naruto Clash of Ninja 3/Xenoblade Chronicles X (hardcore Japanese oriented games, Naruto on GC actually sold much better than Xenoblade on Wii)

That leaves Splatoon & Zelda which I already explained Zelda is no longer a huge franchise in Japan and Splatoon is an unproven, new ip although it does have potential.

While I agree with u that Wii U 2015 lineup is better than GC 2004 lineup in Japan, we are talking about sales here and GC sold 600k in Japan in 2004, Wii U will likely sell about 750-800k in Japan this year, which is down from last year with Donkey Kong/Mario Kart/Smash Bros releasing and are some of Nintendo's biggest series. That means Wii U will likely be down next year so about 600k seems pretty likely.