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Forums - Sales - Why would PS4 win December NPD?

xmositox on 02 December 2014
Captain_Tom said:
xmositox said:
At $329 for an XB1 with two games vs $399 for a PS4, there is no chance for the PS4 to win December.

In January, if the Xbox returns to $399, then PS4 will win in spite of the two free games...


No chance?  At all?  There is a whole world out there.


The OP only posted about PS4 and NPD.

The US and UK are the only places that XB1 can be competitive with a fire sale.  I mean it was pretty much under $200 at Target if you remove the two games...

Even with a US fire sale and Halo they couldn't beat PS4 worldwide.  At this point they are doomed to 2nd place and all they can do is try to stay competitive in the US and UK.



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torok on 02 December 2014
Aura7541 said:

Not to mention the costs of DDR3 RAM is already low to begin with. It'll get worse when DDR4 RAM comes out because when new RAM technology gets released, the old version actually gets more expensive.


Yes, it's another big factor. DDR4 is already out and will become the mainstream norm during the consoles' lifecycle. And GGR5? We don't even have specs for a sucessor.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

Areym on 02 December 2014

It's up in the air but XB1 has an edge with the price for now. We'll see if Sony announces something during the PS experience that may shift the balance.



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

iTechHeads on 02 December 2014

There's no guarantee at all. It's way too early to say it will "definitely" win.
As long as they get their bundles back in stock I think they will be fine. Xbox One had the momentum of big bundles and price cuts in November. That won't be as much a factor in December.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 02 December 2014
Leadified said:
Didn't Xbox win last December? Or was it January?

December and BF due to supply issues primarily.

Low supply in combination with retailer price cuts makes this closer than a lot of people suggest.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

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iTechHeads on 02 December 2014
Areym said:
It's up in the air but XB1 has an edge with the price for now. We'll see if Sony announces something during the PS experience that may shift the balance.

They can't wait that long. They need a competitive bundle NOW. Whether that's in price or value it doens't matter. Anything is better than nothing.

Destiny bundle = Drop it to $399

Black Friday bundle + Bring it back at $399

Lego Bundle = Same as above

Standard PS4 = Drop it to $350 on Christmas week.

White PS4 = Release it as a stand-alone SKU without Destiny. $350 with a gift card.



Leadified on 02 December 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Leadified said:
Didn't Xbox win last December? Or was it January?

December and BF due to supply issues primarily.

Low supply in combination with retailer price cuts makes this closer than a lot of people suggest.


Yeah that makes sense. Depending how November goes it's going to be a very interesting December.



Captain_Tom on 02 December 2014
Aura7541 said:
torok said:

That's one big, massive advantage they have. The most expensive component on PS4 are the 16 GDDR5 modules (512MB each). Just the start of mass manufacturing of 1GB modules, fuelled by modern GPUs that won't have less than 2GB of memory and things like the GTX970 retailing at mass market price with 4GB of VRAM. The cost of each module will go down naturally and changing them for 1GB modules would drive the price down without much R&D.

And MS? Their most expensive component is their custom made APU. The embedded EDRAM makes it big. A big APU uses more silicon and you do less of them per wafer, using more expensive material. And there's another problem here. Silicon wafers have impurities and each one can cost an entire APU. If you do less per wafer, your loss ratio is bigger. They have to cut price here and that's not easy. They will cut their costs in a way slower fashion.

And there's another thing. Any improvement to the APUs litography will come from GlobalFoundries, that makes both APUs. So, improving the manufacturing of one automatically improves the yelds on the other and both will have a lower cost. The big problem is that Sony achieved a more powerful console that is cheaper to manufacture and will see its costs drop faster.

Not to mention the costs of DDR3 RAM is already low to begin with. It'll get worse when DDR4 RAM comes out because when new RAM technology gets released, the old version actually gets more expensive.


Exactly.



Captain_Tom on 02 December 2014
torok said:
Aura7541 said:
 

Not to mention the costs of DDR3 RAM is already low to begin with. It'll get worse when DDR4 RAM comes out because when new RAM technology gets released, the old version actually gets more expensive.


Yes, it's another big factor. DDR4 is already out and will become the mainstream norm during the consoles' lifecycle. And GGR5? We don't even have specs for a sucessor.

HBM is its likely successor and it will be on the 390X and 380X in 2015.  However it won't completely replace it at all levels like DDR4 will to DDR3.



torok on 02 December 2014
Captain_Tom said:

HBM is its likely successor and it will be on the 390X and 380X in 2015.  However it won't completely replace it at all levels like DDR4 will to DDR3.


Very interesting tech, at least from what I got with a quick search. I'll take a better look on it, looks promising!



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.