binary solo said:
You think early December will have similar sales as W/E 15 Nov? With ACU having a disappointing start across all platforms I expect the Holiday lift to push early december sales well beyond mid Nov. If you look at the last few years the first 2 weeks of Dec have typically had sales of 1.5-2:1 over the 2nd week of November. I don't expect PS4 to sell 1 million per week in the first 2 weeks of Dec, but I do expect it to sell notably more than 500K. Actually selling 500K this week strongly indicates PS4 will have at least one week over 1 million in December, possibly 2. PS3 never has a >500K week in any November aside from BF week. Its best non-BF November week was in 2009 at 432K.
4M for December is a stretch no doubt, but I think >3.5M is quite likely. It is a shame LPB3 is looking like a bit of a flop for the family audience. That's 2 holidays runnning where the kid friendly game on PS4 has fallen flat. Sony needs to sort its shit out in that department for 2015, Tearaway Unfolded might be be that game. On the plus side is that Xb one has nothing to offer in that department. So either Wii U will benefit or a lot of the family-friendly dollar will go elsewhere (mobile) this holidays.
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I am not sure of just how well sales carries over into the first 2 weeks of december when compared to mid november sales.But my stimates were based on me being conservative. We sem to be in agreement that the PS4 could sell 3.4M-3.5M in december alone. For that to happen sales will have to look like I predicted +/- 100k respectively. If the PS4 has 2 1M weeks in december then it will definately go over 4M sold for that month as I don't expect it to do anything less than 500k in any week in December.
If that happens then we are looking at potentially over 20M sales by the end of 2014. Thats just crazy. Not impossible, but even I can't be that optimistic.
By the end of November the PS4 should comfortably be around 16M. Add a potential 4M plus change to that from december and we have 20M+ consoles sold. I can't even type that without flinching.