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Forums - Sales Discussion - October 2014 NPD Thread!

Here is my opinion on the two issues at hand:

1.) Leaks -- It is somewhat silly of Aquamarine to try and prevent numbers from exiting the GAF forums. It would be understandable if GAF were a small, enclosed community. But GAF is known as the largest gaming forum in the world. I might be wrong, but I've read data of over 100K members. So, by obscuring the numbers, you still have 100K people that can see them. Not only VGC members, but also members of other forums, journalists, tradesmen, researchers, students etc. etc. To think that none of those 100K members will use the data for their own purposes is really strange.
Of course, the issue then is two-pronged:
a.) Aquamarine obviously likes attention. Surely that in a month of his/her ban, he/she would have found a better way to disseminate the numbers, either by PMs to the moderators, PMs to a selected group, forming a small, invitation only forum etc. But no, GAF and 100K+ audience is still the best choice. The fear of getting caught is certainly much smaller than the joy of being in the spotlight.
b.) Also, GAF ownership definitely profits from those leaks, as it gets extra memberships and an undivided attention from the press, thus not being in their interest to have AM go away. A mutually beneficial arrangement.
Therefore, I doubt that we will stop getting the numbers, no matter how many times they are leaked outside GAF.


2.) Sales, XOne sales in particular --- VGC overtracked by 50K. While it would be simpler to chalk that overtracking to the last week, the truth is probably somewhere in between -- minor overtrackings throughout the month, with a major 30-35K overtrack in week 4.
Week 4 was probably over because of the algorhythm giving too much significance to a Sunset bundle. Sunset was overtracked as well, so it is understandable where the error might have occured.
This error then led to major overtracking in Nov. Week 1, as MS's statement was used with erroneous numbers. Also, MS's PR was very vague, leading us to believe that they won Oct. Week 4, while in all actuality it was just referring to the 10 days of discounts.
It is reasonable to assume so, because the price-cut bundles were announced in Week 4, and Sunset is by no means a must-have-now game that would entice gamers not to wait 5 days for a $50 discount. Thus Oct Week 4 dropped a bit from the prediction, backloading the Nov Week 1+ (Nov 2 -Nov 12 MS announcement), giving them a 200%+ jump, but to about 200K, not almost 300K. Enough to win over Sony, definitely, but nowhere close to the total domination we were led to assume.



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How about we don't post the actual numbers but a range of sales? So ps4 280k to 320k and Xbox One 150k to 180 or something. As long as someone has the actual numbers those can then be used for VGC adjustments.



I don't know why the wishes of a leaker should be respected to the extent that the numbers are not put in these threads at all. It is patently ridiculous for a leaker to demand their leak not be re-leaked. I'd rather the leak got well and truly plugged than buy into this sort of power trip.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Troll_Whisperer said:
A leaker who doesn't want her leaks to leak.


aqua should be a plumber instead. 

ethomaz said:
My comment.

Xbone did worst than I expected... that says a lot.

i literally laughed like you in your profile pic! 

This over tracking for October really is giving me doubts for November. X1 should be ahead as of now but that can all change on BF. I kinda want MS to win just to make the warz a little more interesting but at the same time if SOny take November they can focus on beating the 360's win streak!



Looks pretty bad for Xbone if this figure is legit. Also, seems that Bayo didn't help WiiU at all...



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Ka-pi96 said:
ryuzaki57 said:
Looks pretty bad for Xbone if this figure is legit. Also, seems that Bayo didn't help WiiU at all...

Not really, I mean we all kinda knew Xbox One would lose October. They threw everything at November though, even had plenty of bundles at the start of the month that were announced in October. November is the important one.

the bad thing about this though is that it means their triples for the start of november is not really as big as we thought. That dents it's early lead big time and gives the PS4 a chance of beating it. 



soony_xbone_U said:
Xevross said:
drake_tolu said:

6 SEP 40,000
13 SEP 100,000
20 SEP 54,000
27 SEP 48,000
4 OCT 42,000

And this month:

11 OCT 38,000
18 OCT 36,000
25 OCT 34,000
1 NOVE 60,000

Humm...

My prediction for November are for now:

8 NOVE 180,000
15 NOVE 180,000
22 NOVE 150,000
29 NOVE 400,000

Yeap, those numbers seem very plausible, except I'd expect BF week to be much bigger

BF week is about 60% of the whole month.
So yes, should be bigger. Or the other smaller


He overstimated the 2nd and third week, it will obviously drop a lot after the big boost from the first week (packs AC/SO,COD for free, 50 dollars less, Marketing for call of and AC...).

We can't really predict BF numbers, it's always...well...it's BF...

 

Anyway, the Xone is overtracked by 60k then for october, and already by 70/100k only for the first week of november...



Ka-pi96 said:
NewGuy said:
Conegamer said:

Whilst I'm not sure about the practice of "disguising" the numbers in this way, what I do know is that these numbers are confidential and were asked not to be shared. Is that the right thing to do? Perhaps not. However the graph which was posted in particular is quite a clear violation of Rule 15 on this site. Read up on it if you'd like.

As Tor said however there's no well-defined rule about this, nor am I pleased with how the numbers were displayed in the first place. However a little courtesy would be appreciated for the longevity of the leaks; else soon enough we'll get nothing at all because people couldn't be discrete for a month. 

So I guess it's your call, really. We've made our decision and standpoint clear, now it's up to you whether or not you wish to respect that or not.

Could you kindly point me to that rule? I glanced through the TOS and did not find it:

http://www.vgchartz.com/terms-of-use.php

15. Do not post links to or requests for copyrighted content. This is pretty well black and white - posting links to, or requests for, copyrighted content can and will get you banned. Copyrighted material includes, but is not limited to: copies of games, ROMs of console games (not including wholly from scratch creations, subject to any licenses said creations may have), and leaked versions of not-yet-released games, even ones that will be freely available in the future. Just because you've got your hot little digital hands on a leaked copy of the Half Life 3 open beta a few years/decades/centuries early, doesn't mean that you can share it here. The same goes for movies, unless they are hosted on a reputable video website. Feel free to defend and discuss piracy in general, but don’t use the forums as a means of sharing pirated content.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/forum-rules.php

And since when NPD numbers are copyrighted material? It is quite reaching to mod based on that. And if it was really moddable then these threads should have been banned from the beggining.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Kerotan said:
riecsou said:
Now those MS deals and price cut makes perfect sense to me. Don't get me wrong. Those are amazing deals from MS. But to have so many good deals and attractive bundle at the same time, it must have been because something were far from what they expected.


so what do they do if they lose November? 


Well, Ms PR will probably be doing this :

And say something like : "We're The best sellers this month for hardware with the Xbox" (xbox one + xbox 360)



DonFerrari said:

And since when NPD numbers are copyrighted material? It is quite reaching to mod based on that. And if it was really moddable then these threads should have been banned from the beggining.

Before the numbers were either leaked with a range, or given to us straight from NPD. The graph literally said "DO NOT SHARE THIS" or something on the top which is close enough for me.

Anyway, yeah because of the events in this thread it's pretty much a certainty that we won't be getting NPD leaks from now on. You can agree or disagree with what we said, fine, but at the end of the day it was merely to try and keep these threads going. As it stands it seems like that won't be possible.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.