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Forums - Microsoft - Q1 & Q2 2015; Any Xbox One exclusives?

Landguy said:

The 360 had a 6 million console lead + a price advantage when the PS3 came out.  The PS4 has only a 1 million lead in the US, and until June, had a $100 price advantage and the obvious perception issues.  Currently, the Perception issue is fading into the past and the price has now moved into the XB1's favor.  If the public feels that the XB1 is now OK to buy, it will achieve a continued parity with the PS4.  I don't assume like many others that the XB1 will now magically make up all the lost ground and take the lead in the US by Jan of 2015.  I do believe that it can at least match the PS4 in US sales throughout 2015.  If that happens, that would be a huge win for the XB1.

In reality, that gap matters a lot more to perception then launch woes. Jan is when DRM stopped mattering to the public, June is when Kinect stopped mattering. People, especially Americans, go where their friends go, and thats gonna be where the sales are. Price cuts, bundles, and holiday deals are insufficent with regards to momentum and baseline.

In fact, I can almost guarantee that ~50% of XB1's LTD was in its first 2 months. Sure it looks good on paper, it might even stop the consecutive NPD victories but its not addressing the problem and possibly makes things worse. People will start waiting for holidays to buy the XB1, meanwhile gap's growing from jan - oct, holidays start to matter less and less. And Xbox has always been good on holidays, but since they aren't topdog in US anymore, momentum is gonna have to matter alot more.

Matching the sales of the PS4 in the US throughout 2015 is not going to happen because of holiday deals alone. And a "drought" in the first half of 2015 is the last thing they need.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

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Not sure for Q1/Q2 but there are plenty of third parties I'm looking for :)
Master Chief Collection / Dragon Age will keep me busy until Feb. (The Whitcher 3) and then Fable Legends/Quantum Break/Metal Gear Solid 5/Halo 5 later in 2015



Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Landguy said:

The 360 had a 6 million console lead + a price advantage when the PS3 came out.  The PS4 has only a 1 million lead in the US, and until June, had a $100 price advantage and the obvious perception issues.  Currently, the Perception issue is fading into the past and the price has now moved into the XB1's favor.  If the public feels that the XB1 is now OK to buy, it will achieve a continued parity with the PS4.  I don't assume like many others that the XB1 will now magically make up all the lost ground and take the lead in the US by Jan of 2015.  I do believe that it can at least match the PS4 in US sales throughout 2015.  If that happens, that would be a huge win for the XB1.

In reality, that gap matters a lot more to perception then launch woes. Jan is when DRM stopped mattering to the public, June is when Kinect stopped mattering. People, especially Americans, go where their friends go, and thats gonna be where the sales are. Price cuts, bundles, and holiday deals are insufficent with regards to momentum and baseline.

In fact, I can almost guarantee that ~50% of XB1's LTD was in its first 2 months. Sure it looks good on paper, it might even stop the consecutive NPD victories but its not addressing the problem and possibly makes things worse. People will start waiting for holidays to buy the XB1, meanwhile gap's growing from jan - oct, holidays start to matter less and less. And Xbox has always been good on holidays, but since they aren't topdog in US anymore, momentum is gonna have to matter alot more.

Matching the sales of the PS4 in the US throughout 2015 is not going to happen because of holiday deals alone. And a "drought" in the first half of 2015 is the last thing they need.

Honestly I do not think DRM mattering that much to the public. On internet forums (specialized ones) maybe but not to the general public... And the day one pre-orders are mainly from hardcore console enthusiasts (who read a lot of specialized forums/news site).

What mattered to the general public after the initial launch, in my oppinion, was simply the price. Both are branded as next generation consoles able to play new gen games with some nice exclusives (each of them). That's it, this is what the general public saw and then, they saw the price both can do the same but one is 100$ cheaper...

Now the Xbox One is less expensive. So it may have a good impact on the market penetration, esp. during the holidays where daddy and momy are going to buy a next gen console for the family. They will not go on VGchartz/GAF forums to select which one... They will look at the price first...



Fusioncode said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
And the new shiny games in Feb and March will be Battlefield, Evolve, Witcher 3, and Project Cars. Might be forgetting one or two. They will sway the market more than The Order or Bloodborne ever would. And the market is already swayed towards PS4.

I think you're underestimating Bloodborne. The Souls fanbase is very dedicated and will pick up a PS4 to play it. It won't sell past 3m copies but it will move systems. Besides, all those multiplats you listed are already on PS4. Only Evolve has the potential to pull a Destiny and sell XBOs.

OT: The first half of 2015 is pretty barren for XBO. Neither Screamride or Fable Legends interest me in the slightest. It does give me a good chance to catch up on Sunset Overdrive and FH2 which I won't buy 'til next year. 

I know they are MP. That was the point. And they're all bigger than Bloodborne or The Order.

If someone is looking at the libraries on January 1, 2015 and they don't see much if anything to warrant buying the console, imho neither console has anything set for the first half of 2015 that would entice a lot of people to buy. They both have huge 3rd party games that will though.

Basically this thread is asking where the Xbone's big guns are to combat those two PS4 games, but it really doesn't need any. It's not like Uncharted 4 is launching in March.



BreedinBull said:
If Phil shifts some of those second half games that have that half so loaded to the first half of 2015 instead of bumping them the other way to the first half of 2016, things could be looking good-er.


Do you really think that's possible without compromising the quality of the games?



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LudicrousSpeed said:
Fusioncode said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
And the new shiny games in Feb and March will be Battlefield, Evolve, Witcher 3, and Project Cars. Might be forgetting one or two. They will sway the market more than The Order or Bloodborne ever would. And the market is already swayed towards PS4.

I think you're underestimating Bloodborne. The Souls fanbase is very dedicated and will pick up a PS4 to play it. It won't sell past 3m copies but it will move systems. Besides, all those multiplats you listed are already on PS4. Only Evolve has the potential to pull a Destiny and sell XBOs.

OT: The first half of 2015 is pretty barren for XBO. Neither Screamride or Fable Legends interest me in the slightest. It does give me a good chance to catch up on Sunset Overdrive and FH2 which I won't buy 'til next year. 

I know they are MP. That was the point. And they're all bigger than Bloodborne or The Order.

If someone is looking at the libraries on January 1, 2015 and they don't see much if anything to warrant buying the console, imho neither console has anything set for the first half of 2015 that would entice a lot of people to buy. They both have huge 3rd party games that will though.

Basically this thread is asking where the Xbone's big guns are to combat those two PS4 games, but it really doesn't need any. It's not like Uncharted 4 is launching in March.

Yes it very much does.

The greatest problem with the XB1 is holding on to momentum, mainly because the PS4 has the multiplat advantage by sheer fact of popularity/userbase.

The MP is going to decide whether or not someone is getting a next gen console. If exclusives aren't swaying towards XB1, then MP pushes PS4 by default.

3 vs 2 last year had parity for the most part, but 0 vs 2 is not looking good. And next year migh as well be a worse repeat of this year for the One in that case.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

LudicrousSpeed said:
Is anyone expecting Fable to be good? Most impressions I read have been mixed.


I got to play this game... I am still not sure if this game will be any good. Won't say it isn't fun but I don't know if it will keep players addicted to it.



HyrulianScrolls said:

Lots of smaller games should hit. Ori is definitely coming Q1 or Q2, along with Inside and Cuphead. Also Screamride interests me, but I know probably not many people. I'd say Fable Legends is a long shot, and will probably end up between July-September.


I'm more jealous of these 3 games than any other on XBOs roster. Been wondering...I know. Inside is coming to ps4, but anyone know if it is possible for Cuphead and Ori to come to ps4 eventually? These aren't internal games are they?



pitzy272 said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

Lots of smaller games should hit. Ori is definitely coming Q1 or Q2, along with Inside and Cuphead. Also Screamride interests me, but I know probably not many people. I'd say Fable Legends is a long shot, and will probably end up between July-September.


I'm more jealous of these 3 games than any other on XBOs roster. Been wondering...I know. Inside is coming to ps4, but anyone know if it is possible for Cuphead and Ori to come to ps4 eventually? These aren't internal games are they?

Ori is a MS IP.



Goatseye said:
pitzy272 said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

Lots of smaller games should hit. Ori is definitely coming Q1 or Q2, along with Inside and Cuphead. Also Screamride interests me, but I know probably not many people. I'd say Fable Legends is a long shot, and will probably end up between July-September.


I'm more jealous of these 3 games than any other on XBOs roster. Been wondering...I know. Inside is coming to ps4, but anyone know if it is possible for Cuphead and Ori to come to ps4 eventually? These aren't internal games are they?

Ori is a MS IP.

But its on PC too. 


Its strange to allow this one to come on PC, its could have been a great exclusive.

 



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m