"Dividing those numbers out leaves us with the PS4 selling about 42 percent better than the Xbox One, with Sony's system representing about 59 percent of the two-console market. And remember, this estimate is making assumptions that are quite generous to the Xbox One and quite pessimistic for the PlayStation 4. The real ratio might be even less encouraging for Microsoft."

Thats the way it should have been done if they were going to guestimate sales like they did, instead of  calculating the absolutely best case for XB1 and worst case for PS4 and then concluding with 'PS4 outsells XB1 by 40%!'. Ars should stick to Apple worship and quirky science articles and leave sales analysis and prediction to people who have a clue. The fact they even mentioned Pachter in the article....

You have to admit though there is a lot of weazel words, 'might be even less encouraging for Microsoft'. How about 'is definitely less encouraging for Microsoft', because they've used completely unrealistic assumptions in their calculations. PS4 sales halved in the month Destiny came out, despite Sony themselves saying that sales tripled? Only two weeks of XB1 in stock worldwide, when there hasn't been even a hint of shortages or tight supply anywhere? 360 sales decreasing by 67% YoY? There are so many false assumptions (not conservative, just false) that to finish it off with 'might be' is laughable. 

Oh, I agree, he could've worded it better.  But, like Pachter, his estimations really amount to jack and shit.  So, it doesn't really bother me either way heh.

They do say "* Numbers represent ceiling for Xbox One estimate and floor for PS4 estimate."

What I don't like is that they made conclusions based on these floor/ceiling figures which basically makes them as wrong as they could possibly be.

I think a lot of people are misunderstanding this article. It's actually really flattering for the PS4. They took the floor of PS4 estimates and ceiling of X1 estimates to showcase the absolute minimum gap, which is quite huge if you see it as that.

Taking an average of both consoles would bring uncertancy and would carry a giant asterisk of it just being estimates that could go both ways. But presenting the absolut minimum, meaning there is no possibibility of PS4 selling worse or X1 selling better gives us a clear number.

Working with a certain number that is farther from the truth is always better than working with an uncertain number that may or may not be closer.

the thing is that the author of the article only used shipped data, he didn't use any other available data, so his estimate naturally is even less likely to be accurate than that of regular users that post their estimates in forums such as this

Ever since the very beginning of the generation, they have been extremely biased against PS4, and revering XB1 in every chance. The very same site and the very same guy...

- said the resolutions don't matter

- said prices do not matter

- said "don't read too much into the launch numbers"

- compared Xbox shipped numbers with PS4 sold ones

- reviewed XB1 vs PS4 and found XB1 to be superior due to lineup and Kinect

- re-compared XB1 vs PS4 and found XB1 still to be superior (even after Kinect drop)

- they have been reading too much into XB1's launch numbers, giving the impression that XB1 is selling decent

- this is the second time they have compared XB numbers with PS4 to disguise the gap! (The second comparison contradicts the first one!)

These guys (or this particular guy) is a big XB fan-something or just been paid implicitly or explicitly handsomely by Microsoft. A person could not be more biased.

To the OP: Try reading the article again. They are calculating the BEST possible scenario for X1 compared to the WORST possible scenario for the PS4 and the PS4 still comes ahead about 40%. It is to show that the PS4 is way ahead of the X1, no matter how you crunch the numbers.

Ars is on Tachikoma's shitlist for shady business practices.