Does anyone have the link of analysts predictions from years past? It was embarrassing how badly these paid 'professionals' misunderstood the market. They are business people, many of them don't play video games or even know people who play video games.

FishyJoe, here's a list of some really, really bad ones from before this generation started:

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=16280

I archived it last year because I knew it would only get more fun as the generation progressed.

@Sulla, Good Lord those are some dim predictions... I mean before PSWii release I still pegged PS3 to be the best seller, but some of those are hilariously off.

(I think about August/September 2006 I predicted Lifetime sales of 70-80 mil for PS3, 60-70 mil for Wii and 30-40 mil for 360... it does show I didn't know what I was on about because the total for all three is barely over last generation.... but still)

40 million for PS3 at the end of it's life is stupid. 40 million for the wii at the end of it's life is even more stupid...

the self-destruction mechanism is stupid and funny XD

Haha, thanks. Not a single one even gave the Wii a chance. 

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

I thought this one was better;

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Wow... the same analysts as I posted above updated their prediction after the PS3 release (possibly after USA Wii release too)

Strategy Analytics has updated its worldwide predictions slightly.

Total Through 2012
PS3 - 121.8 million
360 - 59.7 million
Wii - 23.3 million

 Edit: also here is the first sensible prediction... took till March 2007 for someone to come up with this.

J.P. Morgan has faith in Wii. This prediction appears to be lifetime sales worldwide.

Total Lifetime
Wii - 100 million
PS3 - 60 to 65 million
360 - 40 to 45 million

Can you turn off your reality-distortion field and link me some 'professional' analysis which in 2006 predicted that Wii would be the market leader by the end of 2007?

If you can't, then John Lucas' owns all of the 'professional' analysts.

By the way, the name of your logical fallacy is appeal to authority. And I will take your bet that the PS3 will outsell the Wii this Christmas. What stakes?

Actually, I agree with isuppli, that a lot of current Wii owners will get a second console. Most current Wii owners are gamers (previous PS2/GC owners) and will want some of the games not available on Wii. However, PS3 being the only one to benefit from this and not 360 seems like wishful thinking.

Wii is also gaining a lot of new & lasped gamers, and these will NOT buy a second console in any sort of significant numbers. Also new gamers are only at the tip of the iceberg for Wii. The majority will buy a Wii once the price drops to $199 or lower and becomes readily available in stores.

Also a lot of 360/PS3 owners will also get a Wii for some of the unique games only available on Wii.

It seems isuppli looks only at reasons why PS3 should sell, and not at reasons why Wii or 360 should sell.

I suppose PSP will outsell DS according to isuppli too.

 True, the other side though is... a imagine a lot of HD gamers who only have HD consoles will also get the wii. 

However by "lots of gamers" that's going to be the "hardcore consumers" who buy a lot of videogames in the first place, who are a vast minority.