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Forums - Sales - September 2014 NPD Thread! Everything is up!

Madword on 17 October 2014
mornelithe said:
Dark_Feanor said:

Could I say I have agnothistc position in that case?

There were the NPD leak in July with consolidated sales for the first two quarters. Unless the they do some kind of adjustment the NeoGaf leaks were off for a few duzen of thousands units in only 3 months.

And besides, I´m not claiming anything. You won´t find any post of mine in "prediction" threads or weekly VGChartz sales report.

I don´t want to quit NPD threads though, and resort only to shippment threads.

Again, you reference the NPD leak in July, but don't provide a link to what you're referring to, and who made this leak.  That's the problem.  But, you are making claims about the veracity of NPD and the trusted insiders who, every month, provide NPD information.  As Ethomaz (or someone else) stated, those who provide false information are banned from Gaf.  And the mainstays (Aqua, CreamSugar etc..) are known quantities, who we all generally depend on for NPD leaks.

I'm not saying you should quit anything, I'm not saying you're lying, I'm simply saying you're not backing up your claims with even a modicum of supporting data.  And when you have that kind of response, versus NPD which is...I mean let's face it, the industry depends on NPD for US numbers...it's hard to actually give your points any serious consideration.

NPD is the only accurate data we get (except for Consoles Sold/Shipped by Manufacturers) and its what the console manufacturers use when they do their PR... anyone who claims they are incorrect is barking up the wrong tree. 

could I say I have agnothistc position in that case?

I think the term you might be looking for is antagonistic ;)



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Ninsect on 17 October 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
mornelithe said:

Hitchens and Dawkins both research their points, meticulously, and with a great deal of citation (Oddly enough, I just finished reading two of their books) to back up their points.  You simply claim things, with no actual backing.  Ala the overtrack claim about Gaf, that I still don't think you've provided a source to. 

We have official numbers, from NPD, you now have to provide actual facts to support your claim that it's invalid.  Could what you say be true?  Sure, but without actual supporting data to prove that point, it cannot be seriously held up against something as trusted (industry-wide) as NPD.  You don't have to like the data, that's not a requirement, but you do actually need to build a case, with references, as to why the data shouldn't be trusted.


Could I say I have agnothistc position in that case?

There were the NPD leak in July with consolidated sales for the first two quarters. Unless the they do some kind of adjustment the NeoGaf leaks were off for a few duzen of thousands units in only 3 months.

And besides, I´m not claiming anything. You won´t find any post of mine in "prediction" threads or weekly VGChartz sales report.

I don´t want to quit NPD threads though, and resort only to shippment threads.

Again, provide the source please



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NobleTeam360 on 17 October 2014

So almost 300k for Xbone, not bad.



Dark_Feanor on 17 October 2014
mornelithe said:

Again, you reference the NPD leak in July, but don't provide a link to what you're referring to, and who made this leak.  That's the problem.  But, you are making claims about the veracity of NPD and the trusted insiders who, every month, provide NPD information.  As Ethomaz (or someone else) stated, those who provide false information are banned from Gaf.  And the mainstays (Aqua, CreamSugar etc..) are known quantities, who we all generally depend on for NPD leaks.

I'm not saying you should quit anything, I'm not saying you're lying, I'm simply saying you're not backing up your claims with even a modicum of supporting data.  And when you have that kind of response, versus NPD which is...I mean let's face it, the industry depends on NPD for US numbers...it's hard to actually give your points any serious consideration.

 

At that time it was a commun statemant to assume the gap was between 600k and 750k. Last year gap was only 100k. We also knew PS4 sold almost 2x the XOne in January (150k?), February was close (100k?) and March closer(50k?), them for April, May and June was a given there that PS4 beated by close to January numbers and ratio. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2014/07/18/npd-hardware-sales-numbers-leak-for-june-2014/

Total year to date:

  • PS4 – 1,577,000
  • XB1 – 1,101,000
  • 3DS – 768,000
  • 360 – 464,000
  • Wii U – 448,000
  • PS3 – 337,000
  • Vita – 128,000

Edit: The best I could find about the consolidate opinion on Neogaf.

For May: 

– Wolfenstein: The New Order platform breakdown: 41% PlayStation 4, 38% Xbox One, 13% Xbox 360, 8% PlayStation 3
– Minecraft: PlayStation 3 Edition sales: 89,000 units
– 370k < ∞ < 380k, bundle ~ 6.6%
- Wii U + Xbox family < PS4
- 200k > PS4 > 100k > XBO > Wii U > 360 > 50k > PS3 > Wii



Intrinsic on 17 October 2014
vivster said:
ethomaz said:

It will be fun to see this holiday sales.

This data is hard to correlate. The 360 ran unopposed in its first year.

Not really if you think about it.

  1. We are comparing XB1 first year to 360 first year. That not saying a lot when the 360 sold around 7M in its first year.
  2. Yes, the 360 was unopposed for its first year but it maintained steady sales through out the year. The XB1 had a heavy front loaded sales spike at launch. Then poor sales for the months that followed.
  3. And unlike the 360 that was unopposed in the months that followed its launch, the XB1 has to contend with the PS4, WiiU, PS3 and 360. Cause don't forget, the XB was discontinued the second the 360 launched.
  4. If anything what slowed down sales of the 360 in its first year was cause a lot of people were witing for the PS3. Then $599 happened.


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vivster on 17 October 2014
Intrinsic said:
vivster said:
ethomaz said:

It will be fun to see this holiday sales.

This data is hard to correlate. The 360 ran unopposed in its first year.

Not really if you think about it.

 

  1. We are comparing XB1 first year to 360 first year. That not saying a lot when the 360 sold around 7M in its first year.
  2. Yes, the 360 was unopposed for its first year but it maintained steady sales through out the year. The XB1 had a heavy front loaded sales spike at launch. Then poor sales for the months that followed.
  3. And unlike the 360 that was unopposed in the months that followed its launch, the XB1 has to contend with the PS4, WiiU, PS3 and 360. Cause don't forget, the XB was discontinued the second the 360 launched.
  4. If anything what slowed down sales of the 360 in its first year was cause a lot of people were witing for the PS3. Then $599 happened.

 

So you're agreeing with me that it's hard to correlate because of all the different circumstances you just mentioned?



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Boutros on 17 October 2014

The OP has now been updated with everything we have so far:

 

NPD DATA:

PS4 - 538k (~300k Destiny bundle)
XBO - 284k
3DS - 140k
Wii U - 87k
360 - ~75k
PS3 - ~45k
PSV - 20k (97% Borderlands 2 bundle)
Wii - 15k

 

 

Software ranking:

1. Destiny (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3) - >2.5m
2. Madden NFL 15 (360, PS4, PS3, Xbox One) - ~900k
3. FIFA 15 (PS4, 360, PS3, Xbox One, Wii, Vita, 3DS)
4. Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (3DS) - 570k
5. Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor (PS4, Xbox One, PC) - < 350k
6. NHL 15 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
7. Minecraft (360, PS3)
8. The Sims 4 (PC)
9. Disney Infinity 2.0 (360, PS3, Wii U, PS4, Xbox One)
10. Diablo III: Reaper of Souls (PS4, 360, PS3, Xbox One, PC)
11. Hyrule Warriors (Wii U) - < 170k

 

Hyrule Warriors - < 170k (190k including digital sales)
Mario Kart 8 - 60k (including digital sales); nearly 1.2m LTD
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 705k (including 135k digital sales)
Forza Horizon 2 - ~120k (360+XBO)
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: Curtain Call - < 25k
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair - < 12k
Destiny - XBO ~35%, PS4 ~33%, 360 ~23%, PS3 ~9%, 2.5m < total < 2.7m (withoud bundle)
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor - < 350k (PS4 ~59%, XBO ~41%)
Madden NFL 15 - 900k
Grand Theft Auto V - 100k



mornelithe on 17 October 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
mornelithe said:

Again, you reference the NPD leak in July, but don't provide a link to what you're referring to, and who made this leak.  That's the problem.  But, you are making claims about the veracity of NPD and the trusted insiders who, every month, provide NPD information.  As Ethomaz (or someone else) stated, those who provide false information are banned from Gaf.  And the mainstays (Aqua, CreamSugar etc..) are known quantities, who we all generally depend on for NPD leaks.

I'm not saying you should quit anything, I'm not saying you're lying, I'm simply saying you're not backing up your claims with even a modicum of supporting data.  And when you have that kind of response, versus NPD which is...I mean let's face it, the industry depends on NPD for US numbers...it's hard to actually give your points any serious consideration.

 

At that time it was a commun statemant to assume the gap was between 600k and 750k. Last year gap was only 100k. We also knew PS4 sold almost 2x the XOne in January (150k?), February was close (100k?) and March closer(50k?), them for April, May and June was a given there that PS4 beated by close to January numbers and ratio. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2014/07/18/npd-hardware-sales-numbers-leak-for-june-2014/

Total year to date:

  • PS4 – 1,577,000
  • XB1 – 1,101,000
  • 3DS – 768,000
  • 360 – 464,000
  • Wii U – 448,000
  • PS3 – 337,000
  • Vita – 128,000

Edit: The best I could find about the consolidate opinion on Neogaf.

For May: 

– Wolfenstein: The New Order platform breakdown: 41% PlayStation 4, 38% Xbox One, 13% Xbox 360, 8% PlayStation 3
– Minecraft: PlayStation 3 Edition sales: 89,000 units
– 370k < ∞ < 380k, bundle ~ 6.6%
- Wii U + Xbox family < PS4
- 200k > PS4 > 100k > XBO > Wii U > 360 > 50k > PS3 > Wii

Ok, so now I guess I'm having trouble understanding how a consolidation 'opinion' (which comes across as, not derived from NPD, but personal analysis), reflects poorly on the known quantities at Gaf, who leak NPD information (Aqua/CreamSugar etc...)?  You're going to have to explain this to me a bit more for me to understand the angle you're coming from.  I would imagine that not everyone who is a member of Gaf, has access to NPD, so much like VGChartz, some folks may simply see trends and try to extrapolate margins from there (using their whatever resources they have available)?  Again, I'm just kind of confused, because opinion doesn't suggest that it's set in stone??  Sorry for being dense about this.



Dark_Feanor on 17 October 2014
mornelithe said:

Ok, so now I guess I'm having trouble understanding how a consolidation 'opinion' (which comes across as, not derived from NPD, but personal analysis), reflects poorly on the known quantities at Gaf, who leak NPD information (Aqua/CreamSugar etc...)?  You're going to have to explain this to me a bit more for me to understand the angle you're coming from.  I would imagine that not everyone who is a member of Gaf, has access to NPD, so much like VGChartz, some folks may simply see trends and try to extrapolate margins from there (using their whatever resources they have available)?  Again, I'm just kind of confused, because opinion doesn't suggest that it's set in stone??  Sorry for being dense about this.


So, as I understand the general Gaf opinion is based on the Aqua/Cream leaks over the months. It´s a little hard to find their posts on those threads, as it is restricted to registered members.

It would probaly easier find their numbers here... I will check.

Any way, my point is that there are contradition from each different leaker, eventhough they make a effort to "consolidate" their numbers. That is when I start to suspect that they only do a more detailed inference with past data. That, I MY OPINION, would explain why the leaks took some time to be... leaked.

Those french numbers could be right or more right than the general opinion I´ve been reading there.



Arkaign on 17 October 2014
Kresnik said:
GribbleGrunger said:

ZELUDA < 170k
FZ2 ~ 120k
TFFCC < 25k
Goodbye < 12k

 

FZ2 = TOTAL, not kidding. (360+XB1)


Aha, this is what I was looking for.

What's the first one by the way?  I'm assuming Hyrule Warriors but it doesn't make much sense.

I'm guessing the last one is DanganRonpa 2.  Ehh.  Not a bad performing.  I always assume a few thousand more sales because NPD doesn't track NISA store sales.

Beautiful job Boutrous with the thread.

Kresnik, the reason for the bad acronyms and misspellings is to try to dodge NPD ninjas from simply searching for a term like 'NPD Thread + Hyrule' and locating the leaker that easily. It's probably a bit futile masking things like that, I imagine that with a $$$$ outfit like they run that they have multiple people reading the entire thread, and probably dossiers on many Gaffers (and maybe even a few of us here, lol).

If they can tie a leaker to a real name, and find out who they work for, where they got the data, then they can try to contact the contract-holder at the company where the data was leaked out of and get some retribution going. IIRC a few months ago some web site leaked the entire thing in clear text, and it got kicked to the moon because of it (they knew where it came from somehow, probably by altering small details in the data so as to to know preceisely who got THAT dataset). What do I mean by that? Maybe data that you release to (insert corporation here) has 538,650 listed as sales for X, and data that you release to (insert corporation here) has 538,645 listed for the same item. Further, you can alter punctuation, spacing, and other things slightly in automated ways to 'riskier' or suspected customers so as to catch anyone dumb enough to simply copy/paste it somewhere.

That's why you see a lot of pie charts, abbreviated data like > 800 and < 750, etc. NPD Ninjas would love to have creamsugar's head on a pike, and any other leakers they can get.