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Forums - Gaming Discussion - PS4 December Launch In China

Intrinsic on 09 October 2014
kitler53 said:
Intrinsic said:
Arkaign said:
HollyGamer said:
It's time for Playstation total world domination's if the shipping number is bigger then Xbox one, there is possibility outselling Xbox one number that had been sold there.

Eh, it'll be a cripple fight in China. These things are novelties at best.

Let's generously guess FW X1 sold through 60k. With iPhone6 launching shortly afterwards, the 2nd and 3rd week would look something like 7k and 4k, respectively, making a bulls-eye shot towards 1-2k/week baseline. And that's even fairly optimistic to be honest. There's not a precedent for people sustaining home consoles there, and as we can see in South Korea, a market that's fully invested in PC + Phone + MMO is pretty useless for a console to bother in.

PS4 might 'win', but it's a phyrric victory in a market so tiny and irrelevant.

X1 lifetime might .. miiiiiiiiight stretch to 400k in China over a few years. Even if PS4 doubled that, it's still peanuts.

you seem to know so much about a market that ahs not had any official slaes tracking in 14yrs at best. The amount of ignorance levied against china is baffling. This is a country that borrows NA money for crying out loud. Its also a country that sold bought 1M iphones in a month and is projected to sell 15-24M iphones per year. This is a country that currently indirectly owns an increasing number of companies in the free world.

I don't know how well or poorly consoles will sell there, but I thnk its just silly to conclude that they won't. Especially when everything else shows that they can. The funny thing about china, is that if just 1% of their population are interested in buying consoles, thats already over 13M people right there. I can't even begin to understand the logic in thinking that a country with a population of over 1.3B people will not have at least 5M people willing to buy consoles over the next 6 years.

The numbers or logic suggesting such just doesn't add up.


just throwing out some perspective here.  if you do your math as [population * 1% = consoles]  then here are some other percentatage for comparision

US has a population of 316.1M people so:  360 reach 14%, ps3 reached 8% and wii reached 13%

japan has a population of 127.3M people so: 360 reached 1%, ps3 reached 8%, and wii reached 10%

UK has a population of 64.1M people so: 360 reached 14%, ps3 reached 9%, and wii reached 13%

 

these are rich countries (poverty rates less than half that of china) where consoles are well established.

 

and remember consoles aren't so "personal" as a phone.   if consoles reaches 1% of china the math isn't 13.5M units it is more like 3.3M units if we assume the average household has 4 people in it (a number i made up because i couldn't find a real number for china).

Well.... the avergae household in china doesn't have 4 people in it, due to the whole population curbing thing families aren't allowed to have more than one child. Thats why you see so many chinese people outside china.

But even is all else you say is acurate, and then you factor in the avergae income... we are still look at 3-5M cnsoles sold in the region. I don't think thats a bad thing for a place where they weren't officially being sold at all.



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ethomaz on 09 October 2014
Ka-pi96 said:
Good to know when they will be launching there.

200k a year sounds incredibly low though!

Look realistic to be fair.



Aura7541 on 09 October 2014
Nate4Drake said:
Aura7541 said:
It'll be interesting to see how well the PS4 will fare in China. Sony needs to launch the PS4 with a good lineup if it wants any sort of success there.

And most of all have long legs in the new Market.

Absolutely, it's important to have good post-launch sales. We have heard nothing about X1 sales in China since the reached 100k shipments Day 1. It would be best for Sony to try to maintain sales by continuing to offer games that are attractive to the Chinese gamer (which is usually MMOs).



Arkaign on 09 October 2014
Intrinsic said:
Arkaign said:
HollyGamer said:
It's time for Playstation total world domination's if the shipping number is bigger then Xbox one, there is possibility outselling Xbox one number that had been sold there.

Eh, it'll be a cripple fight in China. These things are novelties at best.

Let's generously guess FW X1 sold through 60k. With iPhone6 launching shortly afterwards, the 2nd and 3rd week would look something like 7k and 4k, respectively, making a bulls-eye shot towards 1-2k/week baseline. And that's even fairly optimistic to be honest. There's not a precedent for people sustaining home consoles there, and as we can see in South Korea, a market that's fully invested in PC + Phone + MMO is pretty useless for a console to bother in.

PS4 might 'win', but it's a phyrric victory in a market so tiny and irrelevant.

X1 lifetime might .. miiiiiiiiight stretch to 400k in China over a few years. Even if PS4 doubled that, it's still peanuts.

you seem to know so much about a market that ahs not had any official slaes tracking in 14yrs at best. The amount of ignorance levied against china is baffling. This is a country that borrows NA money for crying out loud. Its also a country that sold bought 1M iphones in a month and is projected to sell 15-24M iphones per year. This is a country that currently indirectly owns an increasing number of companies in the free world.

I don't know how well or poorly consoles will sell there, but I thnk its just silly to conclude that they won't. Especially when everything else shows that they can. The funny thing about china, is that if just 1% of their population are interested in buying consoles, thats already over 13M people right there. I can't even begin to understand the logic in thinking that a country with a population of over 1.3B people will not have at least 5M people willing to buy consoles over the next 6 years.

The numbers or logic suggesting such just doesn't add up.


I have dealt with Chinese companies and traveled there extensively, along with Taiwan and Hong Kong due to business. I perhaps confused things with my wording. The culture is the big obstacle. Leisure and home entertainment are largely looked down on in the society even for those that can afford it, and status is incredibly important there. Iphone is popular because it makes a statement and is something to show how you are have 'made' it in the new China. It's a very appearance oriented culture that has emerged in the new middle class there. It's all new, and utterly unrecognizable from even a decade ago. Perhaps things could evolve in the future but as it stands console gaming is a niche within a niche at best. People might show curiosity, but to establish a relevant market in a culture that doesn't want or demand such offerings is impossible. I'm sorry to be the bearer of unwelcome information, but that's where things stand, and I didn't even touch on the government angle. There is a ton of money in China, but it's largely concentrated in tiny pockets of elites, then you have a moderate middle class with okay money but zero spare time and priorities that place brand name and outward appearance as #1 importance, and then you have the billion+ that can't afford to even think about a console in a million years. 



Namiirei on 09 October 2014

200k seems fake and probably too low.

Launch numbers in china for ps4 can easily be the same as launch numbers in japan, so something like 300/400k.

They will probably have a lot of consoles for china, after all they have most than enough time to prepare for this launch.



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CosmicSex on 09 October 2014
kowenicki said:
what the hell does "start packaging" mean?

shipping?

Seems clear that they do not have permission to sell them yet.


I wouldn't say its clear... because I can't read Chinese lol, but I think you might be on the right track.   Also, packaging means exactly what it sounds like because they have to be make in China to be eligible for the program.  So, it seems like they will begin preparing for launch in December.   I don't think its about them having permission because the JVs were already approved. 



joeorc on 09 October 2014
Arkaign said:
HollyGamer said:
It's time for Playstation total world domination's if the shipping number is bigger then Xbox one, there is possibility outselling Xbox one number that had been sold there.

Eh, it'll be a cripple fight in China. These things are novelties at best.

Let's generously guess FW X1 sold through 60k. With iPhone6 launching shortly afterwards, the 2nd and 3rd week would look something like 7k and 4k, respectively, making a bulls-eye shot towards 1-2k/week baseline. And that's even fairly optimistic to be honest. There's not a precedent for people sustaining home consoles there, and as we can see in South Korea, a market that's fully invested in PC + Phone + MMO is pretty useless for a console to bother in.

PS4 might 'win', but it's a phyrric victory in a market so tiny and irrelevant.

X1 lifetime might .. miiiiiiiiight stretch to 400k in China over a few years. Even if PS4 doubled that, it's still peanuts.

its not just the playstation 4 Sony is using to expand into China with for console distribution

 "Andrew House, CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment, explains that Sony hopes to use the Vita TV to penetrate the Chinese gaming market, where video game consoles have previously been prohibited. It is planned that the Vita TV will be released in Singapore on January 16, 2014 with a price of $149."

 

So Sony has both higher price point Game console and Lower Price point console. Since also the playstation TV shipping cost's are not only lower but price / component is far cheaper and far more return on investment to recover on cost over head vs the PS4.




I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

NobleTeam360 on 09 October 2014

Cool, hope it does well there.



prinz_valium on 09 October 2014

So march or later...



CosmicSex on 09 October 2014
prinz_valium said:
So march or later...


Intial mass production for worldwide launch stated in September and it launched in November.  So I would expect it to launch by March at the absolute latest.  Why are they going to sit on systems for 4 or more months?