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Forums - Gaming Discussion - PS4's Early Sales Lead Might Be All Smoke and Mirrors

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archer9234 on 25 September 2014
pokoko said:
It's just an editorial, people, calm down. After reading the article, which is largely inoffensive, I was very surprised at the angry reactions.

The truth is, it really is kind of smoke and mirrors, as the differences between the XO and PS4, relative to the usage of the average consumer, is somewhat marginal. Most people out there are going to have identical experiences on Madden or CoD.

However, "smoke and mirrors" can have an extremely powerful effect on perception. Even the perception that one is "winning" and another is "losing" can have an impact on which device an individual consumer might choose.

The fact is, the PS4 "won" a lot of categories initially, which allowed them to build a substantial amount of positive momentum. Microsoft, on the other hand, stumbled out of the blocks, giving them negative momentum. The combination of those two factors, plus the PS4 having an edge in other considerations such as price and performance, created an impression with the general public that the difference between the two consoles is greater than it really is.

Remember, the average consumer tends to think in absolutes, and is easily swayed by such terms. "More powerful" might only be a difference of a few horsepower but the term itself stirs something in people that is hard to overcome. Many people aren't going to ask about the real-world difference, they're simply going to be content that one is "more powerful" than the other. The same can be said of "more popular", which is actually a factor a substantial number of consumers value greatly.

I think that, among average consumers, those who depend on others for information, both the advantages of the PS4 and the disadvantages of the XO have been magnified somewhat. It seems fair to me to call this "smoke and mirrors", as that phrase refers to tricks of perception. That doesn't mean those factors aren't real, just that they've grown beyond reality, much the way a fish that got away grows with each retelling of the tale.

It's gonna be emotionaly offensive. It insults the company, by saying they have no quality reason why the system selling, except for dumb luck. That triggers the anger. Articles need to word things a bit better. Like how Tabata got hate when he put the word casual into describing the FFXV combat system.



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Intrinsic on 25 September 2014
Dark_Feanor said:

I think you are confusing my words with other users.

But I don´t want to make my post to long having to add all the time "Accordinto to VGChartz", "According to NPD leaks"... etc.

Sony said they sold 10mi, a figure that VGChartz was way far off at that time. No one expected that, even Neogaf, that banned VGChartz numbers, that annoucement was a surprise. Why would you think that they are accurated with XOne numbers?

Let´s shippments tell their history. 

PS: NPD "leaks" at NeoGaf before the "official leak" of July were pointing that the PS4 advantage to be bigger than 750K back in June. So, the numbers after that could again be off

So...

  • VGC is right if they are under sonys numbers
  • Sony is lying about sold numbers
  • Shipped numbers are more important
You keep fighting the good fight my friend.


Dark_Feanor on 25 September 2014
Intrinsic said:
Dark_Feanor said:

I think you are confusing my words with other users.

But I don´t want to make my post to long having to add all the time "Accordinto to VGChartz", "According to NPD leaks"... etc.

Sony said they sold 10mi, a figure that VGChartz was way far off at that time. No one expected that, even Neogaf, that banned VGChartz numbers, that annoucement was a surprise. Why would you think that they are accurated with XOne numbers?

Let´s shippments tell their history. 

PS: NPD "leaks" at NeoGaf before the "official leak" of July were pointing that the PS4 advantage to be bigger than 750K back in June. So, the numbers after that could again be off

So...

 

  • VGC is right if they are under sonys numbers
  • Sony is lying about sold numbers
  • Shipped numbers are more important
You keep fighting the good fight my friend.

 

 

Boy, I know my english is limited, but for God I try.

I said nothing that you could understand that way.

 

  • No, VGChartz is not right nor wrong. It´s just unaccurated, and I have no way of thinking that is biased to either company all the time. 
  • No, Companies can lie that way. It affects share prices and perspect of profit and losses. I never said Sony lied, for their account they sold 10mi PS4 by July 31st 2014. How they get there is what interests me.
  • Yes, shippments are as official as it can be. Every other hardware company in the world use shipment numbers as a matter of success of failure. If the numbers are hidden you still have their fiscal balance and revenue.


    • freedquaker on 25 September 2014
    celador said:

    1) Japan has no interest in Xbox, and despite people calling it dead every week, PS4 has still sold 700k there and will sell over 5 million lifetime

    2) Continental Europe has no interest in Xbox. It has a long history with PS and MS have made their consoles very American-centric

    3) In the UK and US, PS4 had a better price point and better word of mouth.

    4) PS4 has more games released and more games coming than X1. Bigger first party portfolio, more indies and more Japanese games

    5) The internet has a bigger influence than ever before. People can find out with ease that the PS4 is the more powerful system at a better price. Kinect does not interest most consumers

    6) Markets in the Rest of the World category are growing in size and PS4 is again the more popular choice in those areas


    Completely spot on points. I salute you!



    Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

    Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
    Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
    N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
    Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

    Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

    Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

    Solid-Stark on 25 September 2014
    freedquaker said:
    celador said:

    1) Japan has no interest in Xbox, and despite people calling it dead every week, PS4 has still sold 700k there and will sell over 5 million lifetime

    2) Continental Europe has no interest in Xbox. It has a long history with PS and MS have made their consoles very American-centric

    3) In the UK and US, PS4 had a better price point and better word of mouth.

    4) PS4 has more games released and more games coming than X1. Bigger first party portfolio, more indies and more Japanese games

    5) The internet has a bigger influence than ever before. People can find out with ease that the PS4 is the more powerful system at a better price. Kinect does not interest most consumers

    6) Markets in the Rest of the World category are growing in size and PS4 is again the more popular choice in those areas


    Completely spot on points. I salute you!

    His post is in the first page, and how this thread continued is beyond me.



    e=mc^2

    Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

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    Solid-Stark on 25 September 2014
    Dark_Feanor said:
    Intrinsic said:
    Dark_Feanor said:

    I think you are confusing my words with other users.

    But I don´t want to make my post to long having to add all the time "Accordinto to VGChartz", "According to NPD leaks"... etc.

    Sony said they sold 10mi, a figure that VGChartz was way far off at that time. No one expected that, even Neogaf, that banned VGChartz numbers, that annoucement was a surprise. Why would you think that they are accurated with XOne numbers?

    Let´s shippments tell their history. 

    PS: NPD "leaks" at NeoGaf before the "official leak" of July were pointing that the PS4 advantage to be bigger than 750K back in June. So, the numbers after that could again be off

    So...

     

    • VGC is right if they are under sonys numbers
    • Sony is lying about sold numbers
    • Shipped numbers are more important
    You keep fighting the good fight my friend.

     

     

    Boy, I know my english is limited, but for God I try.

    I said nothing that you could understand that way.

     

  • No, VGChartz is not right nor wrong. It´s just unaccurated, and I have no way of thinking that is biased to either company all the time. 
  • No, Companies can lie that way. It affects share prices and perspect of profit and losses. I never said Sony lied, for their account they sold 10mi PS4 by July 31st 2014. How they get there is what interests me.
  • Yes, shippments are as official as it can be. Every other hardware company in the world use shipment numbers as a matter of success of failure. If the numbers are hidden you still have their fiscal balance and revenue.
    		•

    At the point of data released, VG was off. Inaccurate is wrong.

    Sony goes down with sold through units to customers, so actual shipped number is higher. Sony will probably only keep on releasing bundled figures, but it's not hard to extrapolate shipped numbers when we know sold through.

    Data suggested Microsoft might had shipped less on their last Q. (3.9m ending 2013 and over 1m for Q3; slow Q4). With 2.5 months of data for current Q, it's safe to assume both sold and shipped figures are about 2:1, with VG's innacuracies.



    e=mc^2

    Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

    GTAexpert on 25 September 2014

    PS4 is selling very well because console gaming has become more mainstream.



    archer9234 on 25 September 2014
    GTAexpert said:
    PS4 is selling very well because console gaming has become more mainstream.

    That doesn't explain any of it. If that were the case Wii U and One would be up as well. The easiest thing to explain all this is Xbox pissed people off. And Wii U has nothing but Nintendo games. This causes Xbox people to jump to ps4. And Wii U to be mostly ignored. I have a feeling if Xbox didn't mess up their image. PS4 and X1 would be a lot more evenly close at 7 million now.



    TheBlackNaruto on 25 September 2014
    archer9234 said:
    GTAexpert said:
    PS4 is selling very well because console gaming has become more mainstream.

    That doesn't explain any of it. If that were the case Wii U and One would be up as well. The easiest thing to explain all this is Xbox pissed people off. And Wii U has nothing but Nintendo games. This causes Xbox people to jump to ps4. And Wii U to be majorily ignored. I ahve a feeling if Xbox didn't mess up their image. PS4 and X1 would be a lot more evenly close at 7 million now.

    To be honest even if the XB didn't mess things up the PS4 would still be ahead and EASILY to be honest. THe PS3 sold at a much faster rate than the 360 due to PS being a bigger rband WW than XB. If not for the $600 price point and year late launch last gen would not have ended a tie more than likely. So with launching at teh same time as the PS4 it would have been even more clear. Sure the US would have been closer but everywhere else would not be all that different imo.  



    The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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    archer9234 on 25 September 2014
    TheBlackNaruto said:
    archer9234 said:
    GTAexpert said:
    PS4 is selling very well because console gaming has become more mainstream.

    That doesn't explain any of it. If that were the case Wii U and One would be up as well. The easiest thing to explain all this is Xbox pissed people off. And Wii U has nothing but Nintendo games. This causes Xbox people to jump to ps4. And Wii U to be majorily ignored. I ahve a feeling if Xbox didn't mess up their image. PS4 and X1 would be a lot more evenly close at 7 million now.

    To be honest even if the XB didn't mess things up the PS4 would still be ahead and EASILY to be honest. THe PS3 sold at a much faster rate than the 360 due to PS being a bigger rband WW than XB. If not for the $600 price point and year late launch last gen would not have ended a tie more than likely. So with launching at teh same time as the PS4 it would have been even more clear. Sure the US would have been closer but everywhere else would not be all that different imo.  

    I still think they be even if both were at $400 and no DRM PR failure involved.