According to this site, PS3 at the end of 2008 had sold 19.3m units.  PS4 is currently at just over 10m (already passed PS3 at the END of 2007) so could it have a monster holiday and get a full YEAR ahead of its predecessor in terms of total units?

I'll give it a decent 20% chance

It's beyond 100%.

In a few months, it got to 10M, well ahead of 1 year.

Two full years will be November 2015, by which time it should be far closer to 30M than 20M.

In fact, if you count 2014 to Dec 31st, then by the end of 2014 should be within 10% or less of the 19.3M you're talking about.

So 19.3m by the end of this year? It's plausible, but very unlikely in my opinion. Will go for 10%

I say 17m.

No I'm asking if PS4 can reach >19.3m by the end of 2014, its second year's end because it took PS3 till the end of its 3rd year to reach that number.

That's a confusing way to put it then. If you have a baby in November, and say "he'll be this tall at the end of his 2nd year", people would assume you would be talking about when he turns two years old.

Might want to edit and say "Will the PS4 reach 19.3M by the end of 2014". As PS4's second year on the market will end November 15th, 2015.

This year PS4 will sell more than the PS3 in the year of peack... THIS year.

Next year PS4 will sell 20,000,000.

second year that it's appeared on the calendar then lol

what was that 14m?  Almost certainly.  It's crazy how much faster it's going I mean PS4 has already passed PS3 at the end of 07 and it's AUGUST!  Makes you realize how weird it is for people to say how One is doing well just because it's outpacing 360 which did worse than PS3 in its first year

60% because all it has to do in 2015 is sell at least 1 million below its first 10 months in all of next year. Its likely that it will sell more units next year than this year as well.

True, the comparisons with 360 are pure marketing spin.

360 released in a very supply-constrained way, with fits and starts of availability, and suffered lack of killer apps until GOW/etc really lit the fires. People forget that 360's first year wasn't all that hot honestly. Xbox hadn't built more than a niche brand with OG Xbox (by far my favorite Xbox, lol), so the 360 didn't rise to prominence until :

God of War came as the 'killer' app, and then PS3 released to a huge amount of disappointment and criticism. I think a TON of PS2 owners waited for PS3 to come out, and a lot of those people who waited said 'screw it, I'll just get a 360' due to price and the games out at the time.

But back to XB1, due to a core fanbase of dedicated 360 fans and the highest availability of any console ever before, it sold REALLY well in Nov/Dec. Front loaded beyond anything we've ever seen in gaming history. For 2014, XB1 went promptly into a tailspin and still has yet to really recover. XB1 is now WAY below 360's same weekly/monthly sales for the same respective time after launch, and only remains ahead lifetime due to the massive Nov/Dec frontloading.

I wonder when the lines will cross on 360 vs XB1 lifetime. At some point the XB1 will fall behind the 360 in LTD from launch sales.