Will PS4 at the end of its second year match PS3 at the end of its 3rd year?

[platformmaster918]

According to this site, PS3 at the end of 2008 had sold 19.3m units.  PS4 is currently at just over 10m (already passed PS3 at the END of 2007) so could it have a monster holiday and get a full YEAR ahead of its predecessor in terms of total units?

I'll give it a decent 20% chance