Mass Effect won't move many systems.  Despite being one of the greatest and most critically acclaimed RPGs of all time Knights of the Old Republic sold a relatively measly 1.95 million copies over its lifespan.  According this site Jade Empire didn't even sell 1 million.  Mass Effect will probably sell 2 million at the most, about as many as Call of Duty 2 sold.  It's nothing like Halo 3 which will sell at least 10-12 million copies in the next five years and probably has more pre-orders than Mass Effect will sell total. 

I guess the point was people crazy enough about Madden to buy a console just for it already bought it last year. Plus, this year Madden 360 will have dfirect competition on Madden PS3 and Wii on release. I think this will be the first real test for the Madden Wii series, as people who buy these yearly franchises buy them early, not 3 months out.

Yeah, Kruze, that was my point. ANOTHER Madden won't move many systems. :)

Forza should move a few units for the 360. Over the summer, so should Blue Dragon and Mass Effect. I think it will be enough to hold off Nintendo until Halo and GTA are released. I think the Wii will pass the 360 late in the year (December or so) or early next year (January or February).

you never know EA may just release a killer Madden for the Wii - building on the very innovative controls for their launch port. 

Since Golden Week, the weekly Japan Wii numbers have been up 25-30K/week. That tells me they just started implementing their supply boost. Starting this month, we should see Wii cutting the 360's lead even faster... I think late July isn't yet out of the question, but that won't be clear until we've seen at least a month's worth of sales at the new production rate. What worries me is the holidays... Wii is going to sell out again, but 360 is going to have a lot more available stock. Will Nintendo get some sort of temporary contract going with someone to boost production only for the Q4 period? If they don't, Microsoft can easily take back the lead in December.

I think Nintendo is aware of that holiday problem and they are probably already stockpiling. And if the wii keeps selling out they will up production once more before holiday i expect.

Do we know for sure that Nintendo is stockpiling Wii's. Is this an attack strategy? I think I will get a Wii once they release the system with wireless nunchucks.

Um, the nunchuck comes with the Wii now.

Also catching the 360 in the first year would create so much buzz and give the Wii momemtum into 2008. I wonder if I should buy my Wii now cause as the Christmas season approaches it might get more difficult. I had a chance the other day.