0.38m Japan 6.10m America 3.16m Others	9.64m
	2.40m Japan 2.72m America 1.79m Others	6.92m
	0.91m Japan 1.42m America 0.96m Others	3.28m

Those are the current numbers, am I the only who did not think they would catch them in the first year?

Yes… The Wii catches Xbox 360 in August!

5.85 million global seems to be the latest figures from Nintendo themselves, so i guess it will take a while longer to catch up, unless the 360 figures are equally inflated..

I say October.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/26994/Nintendo-hardware-sales-revealed

I've stayed with September for quite some time. I'm gonna stay with that. It'll get oh-so dangerously close in August, but the 360 should start going ahead of the Wii in week-to-week sales in NA at that time (Madden, ramp up for Halo, price drop by then). Due to NA, i'll ay September. After the June quarter press release, Nintendo should announce 8.8 to 9.1m units sold worldwide. MS should have around 10.5 by then.

5.84 million is from March 31st.  They're selling around 1 million Wiis a month which would mean total sales are probably in the range of 7.0-7.2 million right now (and 360 sales are around 9.7 million).  VGChartz lags slightly behind for good reasons that I'm sure someone else could explain far better than I.  Seeing that the Wii is outselling the 360 globally by at least 600k August or September seems to be a good time frame to expect the Wii to pass it.  However, I'm willing to allow the possibility that Halo 3 will move a decent number of systems this holiday season as the Xbox fanboys claim.  Seeing as the Wii will still be supply constrained and not able to sell more than 1.2 million a month it is possible the 360 will briefly regain the lead in December by a few hundred thousand before losing it again in January.  I don't think its likely though, it would have to sell 4-5 million units in holiday quarter, seeing as it's struggling to pass 1 million sold so far this year I don't think it'll be easy to do that.  By March 31st 2008 I would expect the Wii to never look back from a 3-6 million sales lead.

I doubt another Madden is going to move many 360s, or that Halo will move them before it's released. And I don't expect a 360 price drop this year, certainly not by August. The 360 moved millions last holiday season at $399, I think with Halo 3, they'll move millions more this holiday at the same price.

At any rate, WW Wii is going to pass 360 quickly. The question is, can Nintendo take the NA market lead this generation? I don't see why Nintendo doesn't ship more units to NA when they have a clearly cemented market share lead in Japan.  At this rate, they aren't making up enough ground on the 360.

Madden 07 moved quite a bit of units. It was languishing in the 250k area for months, then in August, moved around 350k units combined with DR. If there was a price drop before Halo, I would assume a few people would start buying if there were games (Mass Effect) that former Xbox owners would like.

If Nintendo could get their supplies increased, they could do it sometime in July. As they are hard to come by in most countries, it could be as late as September. I am expecting Nintendo to increase supply a little, but probably not enough to meet demand to catch up by July, making August the most likely month.