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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

When Destiny comes out.



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phaedruss said:

Lol ioi, so full of it. Vgchartz is partially tracking and partially estimates don't try to fool anyone that it is anything more than that.

 

This post is full of fail. VGC has always said the numbers are based of logical extrapolations.... It's even been repeated in this very thread several times. Calm down guys... Or scroll down to the very bottom of the page and click the "about us" link.



shikamaru317 said:

Yeah, I have to wonder about that as well. How could Sony possibly know how many they sold through to consumers? It's not like they can ring up every game retailer in every country where the PS4 is available and ask them how many PS4's they've sold. Now obviously Sony knows how much they've shipped to retailers, but how could they possibly know how many they've sold to consumers except from compiling the exact same numbers from NPD, GFK, and Media Create that ioi also uses, numbers that don't add up to 10m? It seems to me like they must be making guesses for the remaining regions that don't get tracked by a firm, the same exact thing that ioi is doing, except for some reason Sony is guessing about 600k higher for those regions than ioi is, presumably because they've shipped proportionally more PS4's than PS3's to those regions, which would explain why ioi is off since he's guessing sales for those untracked regions based on PS3 trends.

That assumption... neither ioi knows if GFK didn't add up to 10m.

MC is public.

NPD not but we had a big leak these last months that even broke the NewEgg's site.

GKF is unknow until the end of the year when they release the full year data.

 

Sony have dierect access to all of them and plus retailers... it is not coincidence Sony releses data near the NPD... it is because they wait to get this data together with GFK, MC plus internal trackers to add up the WW sales.

 

Now if you have a estimate when you don't have official data is fine but when you have official data and you are way far from it then there are something wrong in the tracker.

If you doubt the official data then I don't know what are you doing here because if the official is not reliable then the estimate means nothing.

PS. If Germany is 50k under, France more 40k under, UK maybe others 50k under... adding all EU countries you will have a lot of different... maybe close to 500k... you can remove the 100k over in US and do a better tracker in RotW and at the end you will have your 10 million.

 

Edit - I can show you some official data if you guys want.

Spain: 275,000 as of Jun 12, 2014
Italy: 220,000 as of Jun 26, 2014
France: 239,998 as of Dec, 2013
Germany: 540,000 as of Jun 28, 2014
UK: 530,000 as of Dec 31, 2013



ioi said:

They will be using their own internal data which won't necessarily be exactly the same as other tracking firms have estimated.

So do you think Sony is wrong about 10 million? Well I think EU did more than VGC estimated... it didn't hurt anybody to fix the data to show the official... it will better for the site's reputation and credibility too.



So, I guess if one thing can be said, it's that the PS4 numbers have gone...
(>o_o)
(>o_o)>@-@
(>@_@)
...to shipped.

...
(>@_@)
(>o_o)>@-@
(>^_^;)

Thaaaaat pun sounded more clever out loud than it did written out.



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Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.

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Every day that figure is up there VGC looses what little credibility it has. You're seriously telling me that you think sony would lie? And there was no room for interpretation, Ryan was as clear as humanly possible. And there is no way you can tell me that VGC is somehow more accurate than Sony's own internal tracking. That is utterly ridiculous

I now understand completely well why Neogaf will ban people for the mere mention of this site's name



cycycychris said:
DrDoomz said:
cycycychris said:
For all we know, Sony could have assumed the number.

The only chance this would happen is if their entire marketing department is run by a bunch of chimps with a bad case of diarrhea. This would have to be failure of embarassing proportions from the sales dept, to the legal dept. all the way to the marketing communication dept. Possible, but highly unlikely.

And that is why I said I don't think they would lie on stage. I would think they work close enough with retailors to see a trend in reorders and would be able to come up with an accurate number of consoles that are currently on shelf and then compare with shipment numbers.

But of course, what I just said is them asuming......

To state that there is a chance that they would simply assume the sales figures implies that there is a chance that they would think/state something without sufficient proof of its correctness. And, when officially stating a sales figure during a press conference, what else would you call it but lying if they did this without first being sure about the numbers they announced? Maybe you used the wrong word? Since "assume" is defined as:

: to think that something is true or probably true without knowing that it is true

Source: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/assume

Whatever the methodology at coming up with the numbers they used, it is safe to assume that they would have far better access to more accurate numbers than this site could ever hope for and that said access allows them a far more accurate sales figure/estimate with a far lower margin of error than any kind of logical trend based extrapolation this site can ever achieve.

When a company announces something as basic and quantifiable as sales numbers there are only a few possibilities: that the number is true, that the company is full of incompetents or that the company is desperate enough to lie about the figures. Essentially that Sony is either right, stupid or lying. Which one do you think is it?



shikamaru317 said:
cycycychris said:
I understand ioi point of view on this. If he can't find where the system was mistracked, it's hard to make changes. I'm sure Sony probably wouldn't lie about the number on stage. For all we know, Sony could have assumed the number.

Yeah, I have to wonder about that as well. How could Sony possibly know how many they sold through to consumers? It's not like they can ring up every game retailer in every country where the PS4 is available and ask them how many PS4's they've sold. Now obviously Sony knows how much they've shipped to retailers, but how could they possibly know how many they've sold to consumers except from compiling the exact same numbers from NPD, GFK, and Media Create that ioi also uses, numbers that don't add up to 10m? It seems to me like they must be making guesses for the remaining regions that don't get tracked by a firm, the same exact thing that ioi is doing, except for some reason Sony is guessing about 600k higher for those regions than ioi is, presumably because they've shipped proportionally more PS4's than PS3's to those regions, which would explain why ioi is off since he's guessing sales for those untracked regions based on PS3 trends.

I'm guessing they have a better handle on it than VGChartz given they know exactly how many consoles have been shipped to each country, whereas VGC only gets actual sales information from a listed pool of countries then makes educated guesses for the rest. Sony will also have a reasonable handle on stocking rates in many countries esp where supply is tight. There is clearly less supply constraint now in the major markets but supply may still be tight in many markets. This makes arriving at a reliable figure relatively easy given there are fairly robust hardware tracking services in many major markets, and if supply is tight in most minor markets you end up with a pretty reliable sell through sales figure. Does that mean sony knew the exact day PS4 passed 10 million? No. But it does mean Sony will know within a fairly narrow window of time when the 10 million mark will have been passed. To be safe sony should not have announced unless they new for sure that the 10 million window was well and truly passed. But in their enthusiasm they may have announced some time within the window because gamescom happened to fall within that window.

I haven't seen or heard the exact announcement by Sony, so I'd be interested to see their precise wording.



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ethomaz said:

PS. If Germany is 50k under, France more 40k under, UK maybe others 50k under... adding all EU countries you will have a lot of different... maybe close to 500k... you can remove the 100k over in US and do a better tracker in RotW and at the end you will have your 10 million.

 

Edit - I can show you some official data if you guys want.

Spain: 275,000 as of Jun 12, 2014
Italy: 220,000 as of Jun 26, 2014
France: 239,998 as of Dec, 2013
Germany: 540,000 as of Jun 28, 2014
UK: 530,000 as of Dec 31, 2013

This. Ps4 is probably Way undertracked in Europe, and a little too for the rest of the world.

Well, if Vgchart let the numbers without correcting anything after a official report, then Vgcharts loose all credibility as day pass.



Ninsect said:

Right now it's at 9.4m as of August 9th and since it's selling like 110-120k per week I would personally give it another 5-6 weeks, so around Destiny launch if I am correct.

What do you think?

ioi's explanation is here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6598658


Thanks



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