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Forums - Sales - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

outlawauron said:
Nicklesbe said:
Purple said:
Nicklesbe said:

Actually they do know. They have cultivated relationships with every retailer that sells their consoles and games. Just as MS and Nintendo has. The retailers, not some third party tracker, but the retailers themselves report directly to sony the number os consoles they sold through to customer.

As much as I love the idea of Kaz calling up every store in the world that sells Playstation products and asking them how many copies of Killzone they sold today, I just don't see it happening.

Apologies if sarcasm, I'm tired!

He doesn't need to call them. Have you ever worked as manager in retail?: ever known anyone that has? Sony, or the devs or who ever constantly need to to restock or reevalute the current stock in stores. Every week A manager will send Sony a bunch of infomration asking for more stock or returning old stock if its really not selling. they also send a detailed report of every Sony product sale to sony. It tells them how many of what sold and when. It works the same with pretty much every product and in most places it's become pretty much automated.  

Oh my, I can't believe you're serious. This doesn't happen often and they would get quarterly/yearly data at best. People who are dedicated at this are unable to get this information and they pay specifically for it.


You've obviously never worked in retail then. Sony, just like every product producer gets the sales numbers directly. Try working as a store manager, or better yet ask one since you obviouslly have a misconception about it.



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Dark_Feanor said:
6% off is not that bad...

Specially when most of that undertracking comes from places where we have no official tracking record.

They have 6/7% off because there are NPD and others official institutes.

Without them, it would probably be 50% error, at least...we already see that a lot last months, with 100% overtracking for xbox one, or the Vita who was 500% undertracked in the Us.



Lots of points and questions made in this thread. It's a shame most were absent from here in June when MS announced 84M X360's shipped and got a 1M adjustment here within 48 hours..



Blood_Tears said:
Lots of points and questions made in this thread. It's a shame most were absent from here in June when MS announced 84M X360's shipped and got a 1M adjustment here within 48 hours..

big difference between shipped and sold. 



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shikamaru317 said:
Kane1389 said:
shikamaru317 said:
cycycychris said:
I understand ioi point of view on this. If he can't find where the system was mistracked, it's hard to make changes. I'm sure Sony probably wouldn't lie about the number on stage. For all we know, Sony could have assumed the number.

Yeah, I have to wonder about that as well. How could Sony possibly know how many they sold through to consumers? It's not like they can ring up every game retailer in every country where the PS4 is available and ask them how many PS4's they've sold. Now obviously Sony knows how much they've shipped to retailers, but how could they possibly know how many they've sold to consumers except from compiling the exact same numbers from NPD, GFK, and Media Create that ioi also uses, numbers that don't add up to 10m? It seems to me like they must be making guesses for the remaining regions that don't get tracked by a firm, the same exact thing that ioi is doing, except for some reason Sony is guessing about 600k higher for those regions than ioi is, presumably because they've shipped proportionally more PS4's than PS3's to those regions, which would explain why ioi is off since he's guessing sales for those untracked regions based on PS3 trends.

So how we have come to a point where we are assuimng that Sony themselves might be wrong or are straight up LYING on the sales of their own product but VGC is probably right? Man, some people just cant stand seeing the red line being the longest on the front page

I never said Sony was lying. I'm suggesting that they may be guessing total sales and that even if they aren't at 10 million yet, they believed they were close enough to 10m that they went ahead and announced it at Gamescom while they had a big stage to announce it. I'm genuinely curious how exactly a console manufacturer can know for sure how many consoles they've sold through to consumers when the only data they have access to is how much they've shipped to retailers, and the data from tracking firms (which doesn't add up to 10m). If the tracked countries add up to 9m, Sony has to be guessing how much they've sold in untracked countries based on shipped numbers. I'm sure retailers in those untracked countries don't tell Sony how many consoles they've sold, they just order more shipments periodically. And with retailers likely stocking up on PS4's ahead of Destiny's release, that could potentially be skewing Sony's predictions for those untracked countries, making them think that previous shipments have sold through when they haven't yet.

They don't need to estimate, they don't need to guess. They get the numbers directly from the retailers. It's as simple as that.



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DrDoomz said:

1) Announcing "over 10 million" makes the announcement itself very clear and quanitfiable. As there is no other way to interpret "over 10 million" outisde of the figure being above 10 million. The whole point to being misleading in advertising is to be as ambigious and open to (mis)interpretation as you can.

2) No, it's stupid marketing. From what I'm reading you have little practical knowledge of how marketing comminication works. You're basically saying that they'd risk loing their credibility and the goodwill from gamers that they managed to wrest from their competitors for the sole purpose of announcing a milestone that would have minimal (if any) effect on their sales. The risk/reward is retardedly bad. If anything, granted that they may be estimating their numbers (with a much better margin of error than VGC could ever attain due to access to internal numbers as well as what is publicly available), chances are they would estimate rounding down to avoid being wrong.

3) Except for the fact that they announced "sold thru to consumers" and "not shipped"...!

On the contrary I have ample experience of marketing in the real world. There is no way of ever truly knowing how many PS4's have been sold through to consumers. There is absolutely no risk in claiming they've sold in excess of 10 million. If it is possible from their data that there could be in excess of 10 million sold through, that's what they're going to tell us.

I feel you're being very naive if you think companies don't fudge the data a little to tell a nice story. And you clearly work in a much more honest and less outcome focussed sector than myself. Which I envy you for!



Purple said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

And bending the truth isn't going to fly in this scenario. Sales numbers are not subjective, if its proven that Sony is lying, it will kill a lot of their positive image. And that is frankly iditotic. Why would they jeapordize their position on a statement they didn't need to make and then clarify it as sale through to assuage any doubt.

So it doesn't matter whether or not "Sony themselves have no way of possibly knowing sold through figures", as a billion dollar company we can be sure that there methods of actually tracking the sales of their own product are accurate enough that they can make such a statement with certainty.

They wouldn't blow their PR on a sales announcement when they were already 3million above the nearest competitor. Please...

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Unlike you I don't think there is an exact number of PS4's out there. You only need to look at the variation in Media Create and Famitsu data to see that. Now if we can't get the numbers exact in a highly urbanised and regulated market like Japan, what chance of accurate data is there coming out of India or South America?

As I said, I don't care if it's over 10 million. I just think VGChartz numbers deserve credit for being reasonably accurate and it's important to remember the Sony estimates will be on the higher end of possible sales. It was a sales pitch remember.

And you don't seem to get what I'm saying. Sony is making Estimates, that much its obvious. But if they are making public statements based on those estimates, then they must have enough certainty, that they don't look like blantant liers when we have stronger facts.

I don't know why you keep mentioning the 10 million number, that stuff doesn't matter at all. This applies to any public statement of sales numbers and really we could generalize this to any of the big 3.

Their is zero reason to call Sony's statement into doubt right now, which you are doing,especially because of the discrepancy between it and VGC numbers, especially when ioi has already clearly explained why that discrepancy exists.

This isn't an arguement, because its not up to debate.

Not to mention their is a huge difference between exact numbers and a milestone, nobody is saying they know the exact numbers, but its naive to think that Sony wouldn't have access to the amount of resources neccessary for them to know whether or not they have passed a milestone, let alone access equivalent too the statistics that ioi has avaliable.

Seriously.

This kind of blantant speculation is appauling. And frankly you either don't understand what I'm saying, or don't want to understand and are simply making up the argument that you think I'm having with you.

Never did I say Sony had exact numbers or even that exact numbers existed, so to accuse me of claiming that I said this "I don't think there is an exact number of PS4's out there" is just a red herring. Doesn't matter that you cite the variation in media create or famitsu, I NEVER SAID ANY OF THAT.

In not a single one of my replies you or in this thread in general did I even say something along the lines of 10 million sales confirmed. You keep saying "As I said, I don't care if it's over 10 million." this crap, As if I was saying it matters if its 10 million or 50 million. No you are missing the point. As I've said above, it doesn't matter its a friggen public statement, nobody is that stupid to not check their facts before risking the shit storm especially when you are in the lead because of your positive PR as well as various other reasons.

Never did I say VGC tracking was terrible, yet you feel the need to repeat " I just think VGChartz numbers deserve credit for being reasonably accurate", a pointless nonsequitor that has nothing to do with anything I'm saying. The only thing I've said, Is what ioi said, lack of data presents a problem and the forumula has obviously gotten to the point that simply slotting in 600k will only lead to further mistracking.

And again you spread FUD, discrediting the estimation of Sony by saying crap like "it's important to remember the Sony estimates will be on the higher end of possible sales." how in the hell could you possibly know this, you don't have ANY information on how Sony tracks and are just speculating on the public resources avaliable to VGC. Despite the fact, that Sony has insultingly way more access to accurate data then VGC.

If anything, why didn't MS "bend the truth" and say 6 million sold. Why didn't Sony say 11-12 million shipped. Cause their is no way in hell that VGC can tracked shipped numbers, so whose going to prove them wrong?

 

In short, the only thing the VGC discrepancy shows is that their is a problem with the tracking algorithm, especially when many times this year its tracking has been outside the margins of error that it had last gen. Despite, Sony's statement, ioi, not being a billion dollar company, does not have access to the data that Sony has so he cannot adjust the numbers till said data is released, lest he perpetuate the tracking issues of the site. It does not call into doubt the statement Sony themselves made, and to use it as evidence to discredit Sony is the same kind of foolishness that gave us gems such as "Globally in the US". VGC adjusts its numbers to more accurate trackers, not the other way around, and Sony is going to have more access to more accurate trackers then VGC, there is no debate.



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Puppyroach said:
He gives a reasonable explanation to why they haven´t updated the numbers YET. He should have given this explanation for the 360 numbers aswell, just yo calm some of us down :).

We have very good tracking in alot of countries so the question remains; where are those 600k in sales?

We don't know about sales in almost ANY European country really. Germany sales we know of as of the end of June and they are off. If you do have sales for Europe I'd like to see them.



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Nicklesbe said:
outlawauron said:

Oh my, I can't believe you're serious. This doesn't happen often and they would get quarterly/yearly data at best. People who are dedicated at this are unable to get this information and they pay specifically for it.

You've obviously never worked in retail then. Sony, just like every product producer gets the sales numbers directly. Try working as a store manager, or better yet ask one since you obviouslly have a misconception about it.

I have worked in retail and I've even spoken to regional manager about this specific thing. They don't report on this data on a daily basis, and they certainly don't send back information that's less than 2 days old. You're grossly overestimated the competence of the people, systems, and PoS.



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Rab said:
COX said:

sony knows how much they shipped. shipped =/= sold to consumers.

Sony was clear enough "sold through to consumers "  Are you saying that Sony are liars ?


They have been known to bend/spin the truth when it suits them 

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2007/01/6584/

http://www.crappyreviews.com/gaming-news-and-notes/shame-on-sony-for-lying-to-consumers


Being misleading/spinning is not the same as outright lying. Watch the conference. He clarified it like twice. Then you can proceed to read the press release on Sony's website.



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