If PS4 is over 35 million by then, that could well be Xb one's lifetime.

Would be a possibility to hit 35 if ps4 hits 18M then it will be 14M in 2014 plus 17M 2015 would be natural. If we get 20M this year that is 16M this year so we could have 40M total next year (quite the leap of faith but not completely out of the realm of possibility).

I would like to see both XBox One and Wii U put up some resistance and take sales away from PS4 with some good game releases/counter moves. PS4 selling 60 to 70% market share and the Wii U and Xbox One continue to struggle is not good competition and no good for innovation.

I have been wrong from the beginning of the gen? I correctly predicted the troubles the Gamepad has had for the Wii U and the problems with mandatory Kinect and launching at 100$ higher for the One and wrote about how the PS4 would take the upper hand by offering purchasing incentives not based on gimmicks and concepts unfit for the platform's overall developer environment and core customer base, there is plenty on it in the UNITY thread, among others. At this point, it looks like I'll be in the 8-10% margin on my 2014 year end predictions; I dare say that this is above average.

"Proven wrong all times" calls for examples imo, and when you find some (which you most certainly will), it is still a very heavy statement (and blatantly false at that) to say that I'm wrong all the time. Needless to say; I believe the vast majority of users will disagree with you on that one.

Do you agree with Groundking that the One will be at only 8 million by the end of the year? About 10% above the Wii U's horrible 2013 figures sounds reasonable to you? Only another 2.1-2.2 million for all of Q4? I think you'll be very surprised if that's the case. The way I see it; his 15 million by year end 2015 hinges upon only 8 million lifetime by this year, which simply isn't going to happen, his actual figure then comes out to around 7 million sales in 2015. The One will likely end up in the 9-10 million range by year's end, having sold  6-7 million; not only could that entail no growth in the case of 7 million for next year, but since his prediction is 15 million, that would mean only 5-6 million sales next year, which is; you guessed it: flat or even quite heavily down yoy.

If you agree with his numbers, you also believe that the One will do 10% better or so than the Wii U did last year and that could mean more or less a death sentence, and if you don't agree with his actual numbers and believe the sales can be higher than 8 million by year's end, you also have to concede that 7 million for next year is flat (or really, really tiny increments up) yoy or even down yoy if you accept case of 15 million by year's end. This would imply practically no growth or even a sizeable fall in the console's second CY, which is quite simply unheard of and only another 2.1-2.2 million sales for all of Q4 is even more ridiculous and would very likely mean being outsold by the Wii U by a few hundred thousand for this quarter, so you're caught in the scissors of frail reasoning regardless of which path you choose.

I respect that you can disagree with me, but why pick such unrealistic examples to back up?

Edit; I see you're also still entertaining the possibility of the PS4 reaching 20 million this year, which is an average of over 615.000 every week for all of Q4, that puts things into perspective for me. That would be about 10% over the Wii's first bonkers Q4 without anywhere near the madness and supply constraints (the Wii had over 1.4 million in a single week in holidays 2007) and coming off of a much slower Q2 and Q3. Also, for some more perspective on the 2.1-2.2 million, the One sold over 1/3 of that in September, meaning that you would need no improvement on average for October, November or December. Yes, it launched in tier 2 countries but this did not attribute huge figures at any rate. It has actual sales potential, 2.1 million for Q4 would be an epic disaster for MS and the One.

Tag.

You may have predicted that WiiU would do bad on Pad or that PS4 would be above X1... but you underestimated PS4 sales and overestimated X1 for some time besides predicting the dawn of console gaming. Unless I took you for a different user, but I don't think so, I remember you quite some times in prediction, selling weeks and what not saying how bad PS4 was doing and how low it would sell in the next periods.

On WiiU sale and X1 for the end of the year I think both will be closer to 10M than anything else (but going for normal Oct-Dec being equal months prior that would make X1 around 8.8M- for year end, so 5.7M for Y14 so 7M would be a growth (small one) and still wouldn't cross 15M. But anyway I think because of deskinect and Halo MCC X1 will have better than OCt-Dec = prior, so for me it could achieve 10M  (meaning 6.9M Y14) and then 8-10M in Y15. As you may have saw in my range I predict X1 to be 15-20M for end of 15 and PS4 18-20M (just if production pick up, but considering closer to 18M). So for me it is a small possibility of PS4 being over X1. At October 4th we were around 12M PS4 (more or less 7.6M on Y14. so a Oct-Dec=previous months give us 19.6M so from the normal rule of thumbs 18-20M isn't out of possibility).

I wouldn't put much weight over Tier 2 and China numbers that may be quite off and next year won't see the same impact. If X1 keeps October with not many loss in weekly average than September that is a tremendous win.

For X1 to hit 10M it would need 4.1M in 12 weeks or 340k weekly and you think it is close to reality but thinks PS4 needing 8M or 666k average isn't even though PS4 have been seeling 3x what X1 sells on average?

Look at your signature PS4 at 15.5M and X1 at 11M for this year and tell me you aren't doing exactly what I said in understimating PS4 and overstimating X1???? For PS4 to hit your 15.5 it needs only 3.5M or average less than 300k weekly and X1 needs 425k... tells me you have been proven wrong in your predictions about both.

17-19 year end PS4 million is as much as strech as 8-9 year end XB1 million, considering typical console trends of Q1+Q2+Q3=Q4.

2years of 9 mill = 18 million < ~18.5

When considering +7 million ytd PS4 and +11 million PS4 before October

Granted XB1 should increase next year, as long as the PS4 doesn't hamper its sales as much as it has this year especially because of that dreaded friend effect.