I think yes. It'll be close.

Easy prediction, so yes of course

Yup, sounds very reasonable. Even if the X1 picks up in NA, it's going to continue being dead everywhere else (except little US).

Come on get crazy! PS4 end of 2015>Xbone end of 2016! I base this on absolutely NOTHING

OT: Your math checks out if what you say is true about 50% during the holidays. Surely there have been some years where that has been a lot different (360 in 2011?). What if Xbox has one of those years this year (though I don't see much pushing it other than a collection that's being grossly overestimated). Sunset looks great but Insomniac never sells systems for some reason (I'm the exception because I bought PS3 for ToD). Meanwhile PS4 makes deals with all the major 3rd parties and will get a bigger boost than usual from September and basically equals out the One's exclusives with their own driving game and cooky game (LBP3 will be heavily advertised as PS4 exclusive and personally I wouldn't even think of buying it on PS3 at this point)

I think Xb one will do 6 million this year and 8 million next year. So by my reckoning PS4 needs to be over 17 million at the end of the year for this prediction to come true. I don't think PS4 will quite get there, but the fact that it's within the realms of possibility is quite something.

Seems plausible but I wouldn't put money on it.

Many people disagreeing in the poll but not many trying to give me some numbers to back it up :/

It could happen. XBOne sales could be more than decent anyway even in this case, though, 15.5M in two full years plus one Xmas isn't stellar, but it isn't bad either, particularly for a 3rd ranking console that at launch was quite expensive too. If we put between them Wii U, that after a bad start is slowly taking off towards more than decent sales too, we get the picture of a generation that can be nice and healthy. Now we can say that just PSV still needs to be saved, because 3DS alone, smaller than DS even if it thrives, can't keep the portable market healthy and viable without some more help from the 2nd ranking, too many 3rd parties switching to mobiles would be bad for Ninty too in the long run, despite its 1st parties still able to dominate and profit.

As little as they'll do for the XB1, T2 countries should still raise the numbers used for 2015 relative to the ones we have now at least to raise your 15.5M to 16.5M or 17M

Sony's greatest enemy in the race is actually production limitations. I see shortages possible this holiday given strong global demand (basically every market that isn't Japan, lol).

If they can make enough, this will be easy.