So far no counter arguments as to why they think he's wrong... I mean the PS4 baseline sinking will probably be wrong I'll give you that.

The launch in new countries will give xbox a boost, just remember that many EU gamers already imported their xbox from the UK. Even Danish retailers imported the xboxes since Titanfall launched.

You read it wrong, he says that PS4 will be ahead by 110k, so if he predicts XOne's baseline at 90k, it means that PS4 will be at 200k, which is reasonable, acceptable, and still beating XOne handily by more than 2:1 margin.

It will give a temporary boost, and then will go down again. If they get a 5k weekly boost from Europe + Japan they've done good.

Not true in Europe (where most sales would come from). The EU is a single market. No customs, no taxes, no currency exchange, and trying to limit the movement of goods is illegal (Nintendo got fined for attempting this). Large European retailers like MediaMarkt move their HW across Europe as they please and sell it for RRP, so MS not officially releasing in those countries doesn't mean much.

Also, sales in mainland Europe are at about 5k per week. Even if those countries were to increase sales by 20% (more than the Xbox 360 got, so I'm being generous), it would only increase sales by 1k.

Countries outside of Europe are gonna matter even less.

Not a snowball's chance in hell it will be anything more than a failure in tier 2 markets. Why do you think they're tier 2 to begin with? They're already getting clobbered in tier 1 markets outside of US/UK. Besides, the tiny demand from these markets is already well filled by exporters. It's not exotic like here in the states to have an 'import' console, it's easy. Major retailers have them available, and the majority of EU gamers speak two or more languages fluently anyway. This is particularly true in Scandinavian countries, but in the continent also. So the sales to these markets is ALREADY in the numbers, all that will change is taking sales from Germany/etc, and moving that trickle to the tier 2 country instead.

I am thinking a solid million consoles in the first month of these countries (all of them together). Then, a steady extra 30k every week from those countries, from now on, for a long time.

No, Belgium is a Tier 2 country and you can get an Xbox One for 399 which is the regular price for a couple of months already. Only when I talk to people nobody (I'm exaggerating) wants an Xone. The people with a 360 moved to PS4 and the PS4 hype is just getting bigger and bigger here. Same in the Netherlands where I see that all my X360 relatives moved to PS4 and that is more than enough to convince friends, family who usually wait for their purchase to get a PS4 now.

Example:

Person buys 7th gen console (any brand) after 3-4 years even if family member/friend has one at launch.
Nowadays: Person buys PS4 after hearing from family member/friend that he got a PS4 as well (as if Sony brainwashed us lol)

So I don't think that Xbox One stands a big chance over here. Will move a few k at launch and that's it.

what day do they launch in sept?

VGC will prob. Show it giving the console a boost. In real life though, nope, it'll do next to nothing. It's already available (and not selling) in those countries. There is zero appeal