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Forums - Sales - When will Wii U pass up GameCube?

 

When will Wii U pass GameCube?

2015 (we know its not this year) 81 12.96%
 
2016 138 22.08%
 
2017 127 20.32%
 
2018 47 7.52%
 
2019 18 2.88%
 
never 214 34.24%
 
Total:625
gcube2000 on 07 August 2014
ICStats said:

At the current rate, and with the sparse game line up I think never.

What's going to drive sales to nearly double in 2015?


If what my prediction says happens.. Wii U would've sold through 4.87m units through 2014. 6.07m units is not double of 4.87m.

the 3.44m number is from Oct 2014-Dec 2014.. If GameCube could do 3.5m in Q4 2003 then I don't see why Wii U can't with smash bros

Zelda will drive sales. Splatoon and Xenoblade Chronicles X are in the first half of 2015. There's still games not announced yet. 2015 will also have the post-smash bros effect. Baseline in the first half of 2015 will be at least twice as high as it was in 2014. The baseline in the second half of 2015 could also be around 60k-70k. There's a lot of reasons why it can sell more than 2014 anyways.



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gcube2000 on 07 August 2014
Shadow1980 said:

It's improbable, perhaps impossible, for the Wii U to catch up with the GC at this point. It could still (barely) breach 20 million, but 25 million is right out.

Looking at actual sales figures from the U.S. and Japan (European GC sales are unavailable), by the end of 2003 the GameCube had sold 6.87M in the U.S. and 3.12 million in Japan. As of the end of this past June, the Wii U is sitting at 2.65M in the U.S. and 1.81M in Japan, and assuming my projections pan out its lifetime sales will likely be sitting at between 4 to 4.5 million in the U.S., maybe 2.25 to 2.5M in Japan, and around 9.5M give or take globally. Depending on how quickly its sales taper off after this year (which should be the peak), it could still pass 20 million globally, but it has a snowball's chance in hell of passing the GC. Had it sustained enough momentum after last Christmas, I might say otherwise, but it dropped like a rock again in January. With MK8 & Smash, it may retain better momentum after the coming holiday season, and another price cut could provide a boost (or at least slow the decline), and Zelda and a "proper" 3D star-hunting Mario game could help boost sales temporarily as well, but GC-level sales ain't happening. It's unfortunately, as it's a great system with lots of good games, but Nintendo dropped the ball. Had it gotten better marketing, or had it not had such a terrible drought in the first half of 2013, or if it started off a bit cheaper, or if it had NSMBU as the original pack-in, or any combination of these things, the Wii U might have done better. It had a great launch, and had things gone better I think it could have easily sold somewhere in the 30-40 million unit range.


So if it has a chance of passing 20m then why the hell can't it sell 1.74m more than 20m. It can.. its easy if its possible to pass 20m. and damn. The GameCube already sold 3.12m in Japan at the end of 2003.. that means in the next 3 years it sold only 880k in Japan



Burek on 07 August 2014

Never, and maybe not even then...



Ouroboros24 on 07 August 2014

October 25th, 2016. 24.01 Million.

After a flurry of new games old and new, games like Smash U, Splatoon, Bayonetta( a surprise hit), Legend of Zelda U, and the one that knocked them to tipping point, Starfox U, the Wii U is flying high with both core and casual. The Wii U is the gaming darling that connects to the QOL like no platform Nintendo has ever created. Amiibos are running rapid amongst the kids on the playground and even among the most superficial gaming collector, the centerpiece of a new gaming dynamic that no one ever could conceive being into play that only Nintendo could bring mass appeal to. With new innovative games that have not been played like this on any system before it, Wii U is the sleeping giant the DS was in it's generation and Reggie is again playing games and taking names. And here's the kicker, PS4 is at 38 million.

PS; Time Magazine names Satya Nadella named the bane of Microsoft's woes.



oniyide on 07 August 2014

maybe toward the end. Even then thats not good. less 25mil that means it would would sold almost a FIFTH of what Wii sold. Has a system ever sold that much lower than its predecessor?



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benji232 on 07 August 2014

Never, I see the system selling roughly 16M units lifetime. I think 2015 will be it's last year of great first party support. 2016 for wiiU will be the equivalent of 2011 for wii (barely any games).



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

gcube2000 on 07 August 2014
oniyide said:
maybe toward the end. Even then thats not good. less 25mil that means it would would sold almost a FIFTH of what Wii sold. Has a system ever sold that much lower than its predecessor?


I don't think so.. which is sad.. Wii U deserves better sales than selling only 1/5 of the Wii



binary solo on 07 August 2014

Well my son is going to buy a GC next year for SSBM, so I'm going with never.

But if it does have any chance of passing GC it'll be late 2017 or after.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

jlmurph2 on 07 August 2014

Never



ICStats on 07 August 2014
gcube2000 said:
ICStats said:

At the current rate, and with the sparse game line up I think never.

What's going to drive sales to nearly double in 2015?


If what my prediction says happens.. Wii U would've sold through 4.87m units through 2014. 6.07m units is not double of 4.87m.

the 3.44m number is from Oct 2014-Dec 2014.. If GameCube could do 3.5m in Q4 2003 then I don't see why Wii U can't with smash bros

Zelda will drive sales. Splatoon and Xenoblade Chronicles X are in the first half of 2015. There's still games not announced yet. 2015 will also have the post-smash bros effect. Baseline in the first half of 2015 will be at least twice as high as it was in 2014. The baseline in the second half of 2015 could also be around 60k-70k. There's a lot of reasons why it can sell more than 2014 anyways.

Those GC numbers are shipments.  Real sell-through is going to follow an average of several quarters so I wouldn't use the max 3.5M or the min 0.08M shipped quarters as best indicators of GC sell-through numbers.

I think Wii U will sell between 2.0~2.5M in Oct14~Dec14.  Wii U is $300 and is missing games to broaden appeal much beyond Nintendo fans who would already buy for Mario, MK and Smash anyway.



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