I'm still thinking 17 M is just out of reach right now. But people who think 15 million is where PS4 maxes out just don't understand how these things work. 15 million from here to 1 Jan means only 3.6M and that's 0.4M less than PS3 (PS3!) at the same stage of its life. Does anyone sane really think no gaemez PS3 is going to have done better than PS4 will?  I don't think so. At this point it's a fairly sure bet that PS4 will sell another 5 million before the end of the year. meaning 16.5 milion as I have estimated for a while now. But 5.5 or even 6 million is in the realms of possibility, though without really compelling software (LPB isn't quite that) I don;t think it will get much beyond 5 million.

Pff...The PS4 will sell more than 20 million by end of year.

Worst Scenario: 18 million
Best Scenario: 22 million

Somewhere between 15~16M by january 2015 is my guess. Great result for a console that isn't cheap (Price over $299) and that still hasn't gotten its best games.

Throughout this year, the PS4's weekly average has been 171k. That's in a horrible year (software-wise), and even factoring in the summer, which is always a low period for consoles.

BTW The PS3 (yes the PS3) sold 3 million in those same 12 weeks last year. You seriously don't think that the PS4 can't do 2 million more than the PS3 did last holiday? It's got a ton of releases upcoming: Far Cry 4 (including a bundle), GTA V HD (also including a bundle), COD:AW, DA:I, LBP3 (is there a bundle for this?), Driveclub (i know it's released, but VGC hasn't added numbers yet), NBA 2K15, WWE 2K15, AC:U, The Crew, The Evil Within etc...

It will be just over 17m by the end of the year, I think.

Thats not even the craziest part of his post.... he predicts the PS 4 would sell an extra 3mil if it was launched in China over the next 3 months.  Wouldnt put much stock in His perediction

Well, I didn't say 15 max. It could very well reach 16m but that would already be quite a feat.

Ive come to relize the most accurate way to predict the PS4s sales is to take the Avg of what most believe s it wil do so arourd 16mil and tak on about a 1-1.5mil. Seriously it seems this thing was made solely to beat sales expectations

YTD 7.0

LTD 11.4

Holidays can match YTD = 7.0 mil

11.4 + 7.0 = 18.4 + month

Likely, hell if October is 600k, no way, we'd see 19mill by 2015.

But you're still posting as if 16 million is a fairly unlikely prospect, when in fact 16 million is highly likely. So while 15 million might not be your max what you're writing indicates that 15.X million is your effective max because you think higher than that is not ver realistic. But I'm saying 16 million really represents a fairly modest achievement for holiday sales in the context of how PS4 has sold Jan-Sept. 4.6 million for the holiday period for a console selling as well as PS4 up to now is really more like a minimum expectation, not a maximum. Supply issues won't stop holiday sales from reacing as high as 6 million, but beyond 6 million you are probably going to start to see supply problems. So there's nothing on the supply side that could prevent PS4 from surpassing 16 million.