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Forums - Sales - xbone + wii u closing the gap with ps4!

 

what will the distribution be closest to?

70-20-10 81 12.02%
 
70-15-15 23 3.41%
 
60-25-15 134 19.88%
 
60-20-20 74 10.98%
 
50-30-20 173 25.67%
 
50-25-25 38 5.64%
 
40-30-30 122 18.10%
 
40-40-20 25 3.71%
 
Total:670
RubberWhistleHistle on 13 August 2014
Zanten said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:
 

so you think that there is going to be 4 years in a row where ps4 sells 20m or more? starting in 2016? thats a pretty bold prediction.and then 37 million more after ps5 comes out.. that really is a lot. and there are going to be so many factors occurring in the next 10 years that we cant really say for certain how likely it is, but as it stands, i really dont think there is a chance. thats a toooon of fucking consoles. the ps5 also has to be dropping before 2020. there is no way this generation is going to be as long as the seventh. i think all consoles will be out 2019 at the latest. the big three will have their release years being either 2018/2019. 

anyways, ps4 will probably be around 70-80 million. x1 and wii u somehwere around 40. very rough estimates, but thats because there is way too much that can happen. microsoft can drop xbox all together for all we know and ps4 will end up with 70% marketshare or something. who knows.


Wait... why would the PS4 sell less at the end of the generation than the PS3? o.O It had some launch problems, but they weren't RROD-level epidemic, so I don't think it would bloat the PS3 numbers much and, when we get right down to it, the PS3 had every possible disadvantage last gen. Frankly, I'm kind of amazed it caught up to the Xbox 360 at all (before anyone jumps me, I love my console, but Jesus, it was getting its aaaaaass kicked in the early years xD ) regardless of its European advantage. Without all of that holding it back, and with surprisingly strong sales during one of the quietest parts of the year, during what will likely be the weakest year of its lifespan, just seem to be lowballin it even to say it would break even with the PS3. o.O

Xbox One numbers I have no real comment for, because I am curious how the next couple of years is going to go. Microsoft's done a very good job climbing out of the trench they dug for themselves last year, but at the same time, the series of titles being ported to PC suggest that they might be headed for some tripwire. -_- I'm reserving judgement until I see if Quantum Break and Sunset Overdrive are staying on X1, or also hopping to PC. I know that Halo is a big seller, but if Microsoft ends up relying on Halo/Gears/Forza/Fable again, they're liable to continue to get their butt kicked since they don't have the sales momentum advantage in the U.S. this time to compensate for a lack of varied exclusives.

Anyway, hopefully they intend to invest in some new IPs, and bolster their first party studios instead of relying too heavily on third parties.


im more confident in my ps4 numbers than anything. the ps3 is going to end up having a longer shelf life than the ps4. this generation isnt going to be nearly as long, and i dont care how much sony is going to want the ps4 on shelves for 8, 9, 10 years.. i dont think the market is going to allow for that to happen. the ps3 on the other hand, was built for the future. in fact, it was built too much for the future. it wasnt until 2009 that people were ready for ps3. ps4 is just going to be a different story. people are going to buy the shit out of it from beginning to end, but i dont think its going to have a long shelf life. those are my thoughts on that.

x1 numbers can vary tremendously depending on what ms does. first of all, they need to STOP losing exclusives to the PC. and second, like you said, they need to invest in new IPs. the x1 isnt going to sell by being a cable box, its going to sell because of software. i think MS is starting to realize that, and they placed their bets wrong at the start.

wii u, i dont know, we'll see.



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DonFerrari on 13 August 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:
Teeqoz said:
RubberWhistleHistle said

 sorry, i meant that the other way around. ps5 is coming out BEFORE 2020. thats what i meant. ps4 isnt going to be able to last that long without a successor. yes, i live in america, so i dont know what it does for europe's numbers.

yeah, bets are on.

x1 is going to put up a good fight, and really, i wouldnt be surprised if nintendo owned this holiday season. are you going to be surprised if wii u sells the most in november or december? i really wouldnt be. 


Yes, the x1 and the Wii US biggest advantage is the holidays, But I Expect this to be largely offset by the face that the PS4 is the, to sur the words of others 'The go-to console' of the 8th gen. Parents will buy what others buy, and so far that is the PS4.

I will be surprised if the Wii U sells the most in Nov/Dec. I think both the Wii U and the XO might get a larger percentage boost than the PS4, But I still expect the PS4 to sell the most units.

What's your thoughts about next year possibly being the Wii Us peak year? Zelda, despite how awesome it is, doesn't sell as many consoles as SSB and MK.

its a tough call. 2015 or 2016 could be its peak year. the sales will probably be pretty close both years. 

if its peak year is 2015 with like six million consoles sold that year.. then yeah, youre going to end up winning all aspects of the bet lol. so yeah, it has to be more than that. 

honestly, i just dont have faith in the ps4 whatsoever. the hype for this console has been insane, and i dont understand why. i really just dont get it and maybe its kind of blinding my judgement, here. i dont see why people are losing their shit over this console and i cant see the hype lasting if the comin. rs are as dry as this one was. i think people will get worn out and be looking for different kinds of experiences. i guess this is the basis of my entire prediction.

your mistake is thinking 2015 and beyound will be dry. Sony will start releasing more 1st parties and a lot of multiplats will also release.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Teeqoz on 13 August 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:


im more confident in my ps4 numbers than anything. the ps3 is going to end up having a longer shelf life than the ps4. this generation isnt going to be nearly as long, and i dont care how much sony is going to want the ps4 on shelves for 8, 9, 10 years.. i dont think the market is going to allow for that to happen. the ps3 on the other hand, was built for the future. in fact, it was built too much for the future. it wasnt until 2009 that people were ready for ps3. ps4 is just going to be a different story. people are going to buy the shit out of it from beginning to end, but i dont think its going to have a long shelf life. those are my thoughts on that.

x1 numbers can vary tremendously depending on what ms does. first of all, they need to STOP losing exclusives to the PC. and second, like you said, they need to invest in new IPs. the x1 isnt going to sell by being a cable box, its going to sell because of software. i think MS is starting to realize that, and they placed their bets wrong at the start.

wii u, i dont know, we'll see.


Check my Sig with market share after Sony announced 10 million sold through to customers at gamescom. Our bet is going to be very interesting. The PS4s total marketshare is 45,6%.



RubberWhistleHistle on 13 August 2014
DonFerrari said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:

its a tough call. 2015 or 2016 could be its peak year. the sales will probably be pretty close both years. 

if its peak year is 2015 with like six million consoles sold that year.. then yeah, youre going to end up winning all aspects of the bet lol. so yeah, it has to be more than that. 

honestly, i just dont have faith in the ps4 whatsoever. the hype for this console has been insane, and i dont understand why. i really just dont get it and maybe its kind of blinding my judgement, here. i dont see why people are losing their shit over this console and i cant see the hype lasting if the comin. rs are as dry as this one was. i think people will get worn out and be looking for different kinds of experiences. i guess this is the basis of my entire prediction.

your mistake is thinking 2015 and beyound will be dry. Sony will start releasing more 1st parties and a lot of multiplats will also release.


i understand that, but sony first party titles have never really proven to do much for console sales. maybe this generation will be different, but there has only been a couple that have sold a lot on ps3. (GT, uncharted, tLOU)



RubberWhistleHistle on 13 August 2014
Teeqoz said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:


im more confident in my ps4 numbers than anything. the ps3 is going to end up having a longer shelf life than the ps4. this generation isnt going to be nearly as long, and i dont care how much sony is going to want the ps4 on shelves for 8, 9, 10 years.. i dont think the market is going to allow for that to happen. the ps3 on the other hand, was built for the future. in fact, it was built too much for the future. it wasnt until 2009 that people were ready for ps3. ps4 is just going to be a different story. people are going to buy the shit out of it from beginning to end, but i dont think its going to have a long shelf life. those are my thoughts on that.

x1 numbers can vary tremendously depending on what ms does. first of all, they need to STOP losing exclusives to the PC. and second, like you said, they need to invest in new IPs. the x1 isnt going to sell by being a cable box, its going to sell because of software. i think MS is starting to realize that, and they placed their bets wrong at the start.

wii u, i dont know, we'll see.


Check my Sig with market share after Sony announced 10 million sold through to customers at gamescom. Our bet is going to be very interesting. The PS4s total marketshare is 45,6%.

it is going to be interesting. im also taking in to account the destiny bundle which is going to do wonders for ps4, im sure. but i think MCC is going to sell X1s like crazy. i could see more x1s selling because of MCC than ps4s because of the destiny bundle. also, hyrule warriors will be a nice bump for wii u in japan, and people are going to buy the shit out of smash bros. also, with smash bros + mario kart both being available this holiday, nintendo will probably sell around as many wii u's as sony sells ps4s, if not more. so all that will level the playing field a bit. from september, onwards, the sales are going to be out of whack because of all this, but once the end of jan, february hits, we will get a good idea of what these consoles new baselines will be, and that will show how good of a shot ps4 has of outselling the other two combined.



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jnemesh on 13 August 2014

I'm sorry...but how is it not antagonistic to say the PS4 is a "false prophet"?  Also, the entire premise of your post is inaccurate as it's nowhere NEAR a close fight.  Globally, PS4 sales > XB1 + WiiU sales...or they are close enough where the difference would be splitting hairs.

Sony is DOMINATING this generation so far, and, given the number of titles they are announcing compared to either of their competitors, not to mention PS Now and Morpheus, I don't see this trend reversing itself any time soon!

Finally, even the TITLE of your post is wrong!  The "gap" is the difference in total units sold between the PS4 and the Xbox + WiiU, correct?  Well, how do you CLOSE the gap when the sales of the PS4 are greater than the sum of the Xbox 1 + the WiiU?  That would mean that the gap is WIDENING.

In short, this post is nothing more than flamebait, and I don't understand how you got the mods to approve it.  It needs to be closed and/or removed.



Zanten on 13 August 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:


im more confident in my ps4 numbers than anything. the ps3 is going to end up having a longer shelf life than the ps4. this generation isnt going to be nearly as long, and i dont care how much sony is going to want the ps4 on shelves for 8, 9, 10 years.. i dont think the market is going to allow for that to happen. the ps3 on the other hand, was built for the future. in fact, it was built too much for the future. it wasnt until 2009 that people were ready for ps3. ps4 is just going to be a different story. people are going to buy the shit out of it from beginning to end, but i dont think its going to have a long shelf life. those are my thoughts on that.

x1 numbers can vary tremendously depending on what ms does. first of all, they need to STOP losing exclusives to the PC. and second, like you said, they need to invest in new IPs. the x1 isnt going to sell by being a cable box, its going to sell because of software. i think MS is starting to realize that, and they placed their bets wrong at the start.

wii u, i dont know, we'll see.

Aaah, fair enough. ^_^ I can't really speak as to the long-term lifespan of the consoles; I think that it's largely going to boil down to how long developers and publishers consider it financially viable to produce content for them, and how long it is before Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo decide they want to move on. Though the previous gen might have been future proofed, it hasn't kept the Xbox 360 and PS3 from getting pretty much obliterated in terms of hardware power the last few years. But them getting obliterated in terms of hardware power hasn't kept them from producing some pretty impressive games, given the old hardware, and continuing to release titles long after PC had left them in the dust.

Still, there's always a chance that all three platforms' lifespans are going to be shorter than last gen, and the Xbox One, PS4 and Wii U will be discontinued in fewer years. Although given what dire straits Sony was in with the PS3, and how the PS4 is finaaaally looking like a bright spot, they might not be uber eager to give up the platform and take risks with a PS5 before they absolutely have to.



Zanten, Doer Of The Things

Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.

BeElite on 13 August 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:


i understand that, but sony first party titles have never really proven to do much for console sales. maybe this generation will be different, but there has only been a couple that have sold a lot on ps3. (GT, uncharted, tLOU)

LBPs and GOWs 5m plus is not alot to you ?



DonFerrari on 13 August 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:
DonFerrari said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:

its a tough call. 2015 or 2016 could be its peak year. the sales will probably be pretty close both years. 

if its peak year is 2015 with like six million consoles sold that year.. then yeah, youre going to end up winning all aspects of the bet lol. so yeah, it has to be more than that. 

honestly, i just dont have faith in the ps4 whatsoever. the hype for this console has been insane, and i dont understand why. i really just dont get it and maybe its kind of blinding my judgement, here. i dont see why people are losing their shit over this console and i cant see the hype lasting if the comin. rs are as dry as this one was. i think people will get worn out and be looking for different kinds of experiences. i guess this is the basis of my entire prediction.

your mistake is thinking 2015 and beyound will be dry. Sony will start releasing more 1st parties and a lot of multiplats will also release.


i understand that, but sony first party titles have never really proven to do much for console sales. maybe this generation will be different, but there has only been a couple that have sold a lot on ps3. (GT, uncharted, tLOU)

I won't discuss the quality or the appeal of Sony 1st party. I was just saying that you can't say the games will dry from 2015 onwards because that is totally false. Sony have more 1st patty than Ms and have almost all games from relevant 3rd parties while ninty have close to none. And have most indies than both. So anyway you cut Sony will have more games and then for you to say that is dry what about WiiU and X1??? I would bet that summing all games (no duplicates) from X1 and WiiU it won't be much more than PS4, and would even say there is a possibility that total sw sales will be almost 50% on ps4.





duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

RubberWhistleHistle on 13 August 2014
jnemesh said:

I'm sorry...but how is it not antagonistic to say the PS4 is a "false prophet"?  Also, the entire premise of your post is inaccurate as it's nowhere NEAR a close fight.  Globally, PS4 sales > XB1 + WiiU sales...or they are close enough where the difference would be splitting hairs.

Sony is DOMINATING this generation so far, and, given the number of titles they are announcing compared to either of their competitors, not to mention PS Now and Morpheus, I don't see this trend reversing itself any time soon!

Finally, even the TITLE of your post is wrong!  The "gap" is the difference in total units sold between the PS4 and the Xbox + WiiU, correct?  Well, how do you CLOSE the gap when the sales of the PS4 are greater than the sum of the Xbox 1 + the WiiU?  That would mean that the gap is WIDENING.

In short, this post is nothing more than flamebait, and I don't understand how you got the mods to approve it.  It needs to be closed and/or removed.


at the time i wrote it, it was (i believe) the third consecutive week in a row where xbone+wii u outsold the ps4. this thread got revived when the latest sales got updated, im guessing because ps4 outsold both combined and people wanted to come in here and say i was wrong or something.