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Forums - Nintendo - How well will Captain Toad sell?

MTZehvor on 06 July 2014

All of the predictions so far seem incredibly optimistic to me. I'll go 200K holiday, 800K lifetime.



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Skidonti on 06 July 2014
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


I think it will ride on the success of 3D world. 

But 3D World itself is only at like 2.5 million as of now. I don't really see it selling over 4.5 million. (and that's if another 3D mario isn't announced for WiiU)

I think Captain Toad can sell 1.4 million lifetime. It's kinda niche, not the big headliner this holiday, mostly a puzzle platformer, and a little harder to market than other titles, if Nintendo puts anything in its marketing budget at all. For what it is I think 1.4 million is a hit and a good success



KLXVER on 06 July 2014
Skidonti said:
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


I think it will ride on the success of 3D world. 

But 3D World itself is only at like 2.5 million as of now. I don't really see it selling over 4.5 million. (and that's if another 3D mario isn't announced for WiiU)

I think Captain Toad can sell 1.4 million lifetime. It's kinda niche, not the big headliner this holiday, mostly a puzzle platformer, and a little harder to market than other titles, if Nintendo puts anything in its marketing budget at all. For what it is I think 1.4 million is a hit and a good success


3D World will keep selling as long as the WiiU is alive I think. Im guessing around 8 million at least.



BraveNewWorld on 06 July 2014

There'll be a bunch of digital sales with this game. 3 million lifetime with over a million being digital.



"On my business card I am a corporate president. In my mind I am a game developer. But in my heart I am a gamer." - Satoru Iwata

JWeinCom on 06 July 2014
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


I think it will ride on the success of 3D world. 


3D World is tracking far below pretty much every other 3D Mario game.  Optimistically (without bundling) 3D World will sell about 6-7 million.  I don't think 2/3 of those people are going to buy Captain Toad as many are predicting.



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Moren on 06 July 2014

Abysmally. >1M lifetime.



KLXVER on 06 July 2014
JWeinCom said:
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


I think it will ride on the success of 3D world. 


3D World is tracking far below pretty much every other 3D Mario game.  Optimistically (without bundling) 3D World will sell about 6-7 million.  I don't think 2/3 of those people are going to buy Captain Toad as many are predicting.


Wii Music sold like 3.5 million, so I think Treasure Tracker can beat that.



Spade on 06 July 2014
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.

Completely agreed...

Not seeing how this is going to reach 2, let alone 3 million. 

I mean I guess it seems fun for those interested, but 2-3 million is asking a lot. 

OT: I'd say at most around 1.15M. If it manages over a million I'd be impressed. 



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Soundwave on 06 July 2014

I think it will be one of those cult classic hits that pop up on Nintendo consoles that are well remembered after the fact ... like think Uni Racers on the SNES or Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat on the GameCube.

But not a big seller. I think Hyrule Warriors probably will sell better.

But that's ok, because I think Captain Toad probably didn't cost a ton to make, it's literally built right off the existing Mario 3D World engine and probably has a small subset of EAD Tokyo working on it. It's fine. Nintendo can probably turn a profit on this game selling 300k worldwide. 



Azhraell on 06 July 2014
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.

This. I don't know why people is aiming so high with this game. More than 1.5m Ltd would be a huge success given the things right now.