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Forums - Gaming Discussion - I honestly believe gaming PCs are becoming niche market

Tamron said:
zarx said:

Ok lets clear a couple things up

From this

We can deduce that Nvidia sold ~100 million desktop GPUs alone last year. Nvidia don't actually sell full cards they sell GPU dies to board partners who then manufacture a card which includes a PCP board, RAM, Power supply, ports and connectors etc then they box up the card and sell to retailers. For the $1000 Titan for example the part that Nvidia sells for US $115.79 / piece so given Intrinsic's lowball $1b estemate (GPU sales accounted for $3.2b of Nvidia's sales last year and most of that is consumer GPUs) that would be 8.6 million Titans. According to the Steam hardware survey the GTX 770 is their most popular high end card at the moment one of those is just $65 and keep in mind these prices are via a reseller so Nvida probably charge less.


Indeed, its amazing what googling for facts can do over pulling numbers out of your backside eh?.

I think we're fighting a lost cause though, to be honest.

Funny you should say that... please look at my reply to his post and the link directly to nvidia that i posted and help us explain all this. 



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Tamron said:
Intrinsic said:

Long story short. Don't generalize. It usually never ends well.

Dont generalize

Intrinsic said:

An adult with a job and prorities tends to just want simpler things. Unless said adult is heavily into PC gaming most others just want a small discrete box they can plug into their TV and hammer out an hr or two of use everyday after work or during or around dinner.

Generalizes.

Sigh...... look at a few posts above you at what surveys have shown to make up the average gamer age and income. I doubt yu are really trying to make points here and picking on me as if i were somehow trying to piss on your precious platform whatever it is..... I am not generalizing when what i am saying can be factually backed. What proof is theer to suggest that console gamers are mostly young and don't have their own money as what he was saying suggested?



Intrinsic said:

Sigh...... look at a few posts above you at what surveys have shown to make up the average gamer age and income. I doubt yu are really trying to make points here and picking on me as if i were somehow trying to piss on your precious platform whatever it is..... I am not generalizing when what i am saying can be factually backed. What proof is theer to suggest that console gamers are mostly young and don't have their own money as what he was saying suggested?

It's a generalization regardless of how you tart it up with bunting and ribbon.



Tamron said:
Intrinsic said:

Sigh...... look at a few posts above you at what surveys have shown to make up the average gamer age and income. I doubt yu are really trying to make points here and picking on me as if i were somehow trying to piss on your precious platform whatever it is..... I am not generalizing when what i am saying can be factually backed. What proof is theer to suggest that console gamers are mostly young and don't have their own money as what he was saying suggested?

It's a generalization regardless of how you tart it up with bunting and ribbon.

OK. So one person says (with absolutely nothing to back up their claim)"console gamers will grow up and have money and move onto more sophisticated platforms". Generally insinuating console gamers are young and don't make their own money...etc. So when they do they will gravitiate to PC gaming.

Another person says (based on numerous market research and surveys) "the average console gamer is a working man and usually and maybe even a family man and is not cash strapped but just has different priorities hence consoles makes more financial sense to him".

Yet you can't tell who is generalizing here? Do you even know what the word means I wonder? But tell you what, if you think what i said (which is based on numerous facts that yu can find from simply doing a google search is a generalization? then theer really is no point to argue with you. We have surveys and market research and financial reports for this exact reason my friend, so people wouldn't just take things outta their ass and run with it. Arriving at conclusions based on such analysis.... is the exact opposite of a generalization. But hey.... what do I know?



Intrinsic said:
zarx said:

Ok lets clear a couple things up

From this

We can deduce that Nvidia sold ~100 million desktop GPUs alone last year. Nvidia don't actually sell full cards they sell GPU dies to board partners who then manufacture a card which includes a PCP board, RAM, Power supply, ports and connectors etc then they box up the card and sell to retailers. For the $1000 Titan for example the part that Nvidia sells for US $115.79 / piece so given Intrinsic's lowball $1b estemate (GPU sales accounted for $3.2b of Nvidia's sales last year and most of that is consumer GPUs) that would be 8.6 million Titans. According to the Steam hardware survey the GTX 770 is their most popular high end card at the moment one of those is just $65 and keep in mind these prices are via a reseller so Nvida probably charge less.

Wow.... for someone that seems to be obviously so smart, why do you insist on just ignoring the facts that you have right in front of you. I will only talk based on what you have presented here.

If nvidia made an earning report and announced that it had 4Q total revenue of $1.14B. You know what, lets even make that $2B per quater though that is not what Nvidia said (they said $1.14B). Now for 4Qs thats $8B right? 

So lets use your $115/piece number here and the fact that as you have so kindly pointed out they sold 100M GPUs last year alone. Which so happens to cover the period their earnings report shows. Lets do some math now shall we? 100M x $115.

THAT IS $11.5 BILLION

Can you kindly tell us then, why Nvidia chose to lie about its anual earnings?

Now mind you, this $11.5B was made from selling ONLY discrete desktop GPUs. No tegra, no nvidia shield, no mobile GPUs. Nothing else. You clearly have no idea what you are tal;king about. All I have done is use the date you have provided and compared it to what Nvidia announced themselves.

So please tell us, why will nvidia announce the 2013-2014 finacial 4Q to be their best quater in a while at $1.14B in total revenue, when they somehow make an annual $11B in desktop GPU sales alone?????????? Are you delusional or something? or just plain confused.

Nice try but you're both somewhat off on the sales.

You are comparing final retail prices versus revenue, retail nvidia cards amount for less than 5% of gpu purchases, the rest of the revenue is down to selling GPU dies to third party manufacturers along with specifications for a reference design,. HENCE the term "reference", you can indeed buy them directly on ali express but these are single unit prices, which are high on purpose because theyre intended for people in the business of repairing defective cards, they don't offer any discount on bulk purchases either.

Actually unit cost to third party manufacturers is much, much lower, around $50 for the titan GU and sub $20 for the GTX770 GPU, you calculated 11.5B assuming nvidia sold NOTHING but GTX titans, that's retarded.

Lets assume for the case of the argument, that only 10% of sales are high end cards, thats roughly 100 million, the highest selling high end card is the GTX770 at revenue point of between 16.50-20 usd per unit, depending on arrangements with third parties and if the third parties want to use the reference designs or not, that's 5 million GPU's on just the 10% assumption, moving down the scale to lower end cards, such as GS and GT, die prices drop to sub-$5, so you can easilly end up at around 100m gpus/year sold from that 1.1b revenue for ONE QUARTER.

So even with that drastically cut back estimation of only 10% being high end (despite a 16% growth this year on high end cards alone), that's still 10 million high end cards sold for nvidia alone, factor in AMD too and you have close to 20m high end cards per year.



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Intrinsic said:

OK. So one person says (with absolutely nothing to back up their claim)"console gamers will grow up and have money and move onto more sophisticated platforms". Generally insinuating console gamers are young and don't make their own money...etc. So when they do they will gravitiate to PC gaming.

Another person says (based on numerous market research and surveys) "the average console gamer is a working man and usually and maybe even a family man and is not cash strapped but just has different priorities hence consoles makes more financial sense to him".

Yet you can't tell who is generalizing here? Do you even know what the word means I wonder? But tell you what, if you think what i said (which is based on numerous facts that yu can find from simply doing a google search is a generalization? then theer really is no point to argue with you. We have surveys and market research and financial reports for this exact reason my friend, so people wouldn't just take things outta their ass and run with it. Arriving at conclusions based on such analysis.... is the exact opposite of a generalization. But hey.... what do I know?

You're both generalizing, that's the very nature of consolidating an average based off of a survey.



Tamron said:

Let's consolidate those numbers for Q2 2011.

Nvidia : 23,828,000
ATI/AMD : 28,865,920

I wasn't gonna reply to this cause I felt it should be obvious. But what the hell.

Those are really good numbers for one quater. so that puts the yearly sales at around 160-170M right? You do realize that this includes "everything" PC related. We are talking laptops from every single vendor known and unknown in addition to discrete GPUs. 

I really can't believe that theer are people heer actually having this argument with me. Please do some research, look up how many laptop/prebuilt PC(desktops/all in ones etc) sales were made in the same period. Subtract that from those numbers and then you start to have an idea of how many standalone GPUs were sold.

Tamron said:

You're both generalizing, that's the very nature of consolidating an average based off of a survey.

Wow. You are not "generalizing" if what you are saying is based of actual numbers that come from market research and surveys. cause that means that what you are saying is statistically accurate. A generalization is based primarily off stereotyping. With no statistical eveidence to back what you are saying. In business, statistics and market/focus reserach is good. Generalization is bad.

Surveys deals with specific and thorough examination over a vast area to enable accurate analysis. Generalizations takes one case scenario and extrapolates it over a vast area and groups everything into that subset. 

It is theoritically impossible to generalize off a survey/market research.... don't you get that. Just look up the definitions of generalize and survey and stop making yourself look silly simply cause you are trying to be right.

Surveys/market research are done so you do NOT have to generalize. What I said is based of such an analysis. Sigh.... its  me saying that after market research its been confirmed  that 60% of gamers are male and you coming here to say that making such a claim based on said research that was done across various demographics and geolocations is a generalization.

Either way, we are derailing this thread. So I will not respond to this matter anymore. If you feel I am generalizing... then thats ok. 



Intrinsic said:
Tamron said:

Let's consolidate those numbers for Q2 2011.

Nvidia : 23,828,000
ATI/AMD : 28,865,920

I wasn't gonna reply to this cause I felt it should be obvious. But what the hell.

Those are really good numbers for one quater. so that puts the yearly sales at around 160-170M right? You do realize that this includes "everything" PC related. We are talking laptops from every single vendor known and unknown in addition to discrete GPUs. 

Look at the graph again, buddy.

Nvidia : 23,828,000
ATI/AMD : 28,865,920

Those figures are ONLY the amd and nvidia GPUs, the rest, including "other/unknown" are listed too, but hey, let's pretend that over 75% of laptop gpus aren't Intel right? *rolleyes*

Intrinsic said:

I really can't believe that theer are people heer actually having this argument with me. Please do some research, look up how many laptop/prebuilt PC(desktops/all in ones etc) sales were made in the same period. Subtract that from those numbers and then you start to have an idea of how many standalone GPUs were sold.

It might have something to do with you ignoring clear and obvious evidence, and bending reality to suit your own argument.

This graph is using hard evidence from each manufacturers annual reports, your argument is that based off of nvidias figures, they could not be selling more than 3 million gpus per quarter.

Yet all evidence points to the contrary, but have fun im dreamland, it's clear you're one of those types, so i'm done and will leave it at this:

Nvidia released a revenue report and nvidia released shipment reports, either theyre lying on one of them or your maths is wrong, I don't know about you, but i'm more inclined to believe them.



zarx said:
And yet high end GPU sales are up YoY

Likely people upgrading in the wake of PS4 and Xbone raising the standard.



curl-6 said:
zarx said:
And yet high end GPU sales are up YoY

Likely people upgrading in the wake of PS4 , WiiU and Xbone raising the standard.

Fixed.