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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 To Sell 10M WW From July-Jan? - Update Final 9.8M Sold... Who's Your Daddy

 

How Much Will The PS4 Sell In This Time Period

10 252 38.83%
 
8M 124 19.11%
 
7M 99 15.25%
 
6M 83 12.79%
 
<6M 90 13.87%
 
Total:648
Zero999 said:

bold: a non supply constrained ps4 did that in the last 6 months. see how the bolded has no significance to the discussion?

it's shaping up to sell a little over 1 million in the next 3 months and there's nothing exciting enough during holidays to give it a huge boost. I'd say 5-6, though. 

I like posters like you.... makes it nicer when your bias is made obvious.

First lets take your 5-6M etimate which is just shy of my 6-7M estimate. I am at least in agreement that between july-august it well sell around 1M units. In september though it will sell more thanks to the destiny bundle (read that as thanks to a white PS4). I know that will push sales cause even I would be selling my PS4 and buying a white PS4. But if you feel it can't sell more as much as it did in its launch months, how would you explain the remaining 4-5M of sales that your estimate suggests since you also clearly say it wont have more than 1M of sales in the next 3 months?

Then secondly, please look at every console ever made in the past two generations. Compare their sales during this time of the year and then their sales during the fall season (oct-dec). Sales climb by at least 3-4x monthly  compared to whatever they are  during the mid yar period. If the PS4 is currently averaging like 400k-500k of sales now as a baseline (no high demand, no software pushing sales...etc) then that means in those months it will average around 1.2-2M sales per month worldwide. This is just going of sales patternes of every console before it.

It doesn't matter how much it has sold in the past 6 months. Every console's sales slows down considerably around this time of the year. There are years worth of evidence to back that claim. But how can you dispute the fact that consoles typically sell 3-4 times more than what they do now in those last 3 months of the year.



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I think you're pushing it a little especially for November, I don't see why PS4 sales would suddenly spike especially since 2014 is a bit lackluster in the megahits department. I think 7-8 million is more likely with 9 being the absolute max, it's still going to be a great year overall.



I'm thinking around 8 million



bump 3 weeks in 9.65M to go!

needs 386k average



                                                             

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I doubt Sony will have enough consoles for this. If they did tho...would be interesting.



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6.5 months. Assuming holidays double sales. So that is effectively 9.5 months. It would need to about a million a month, with 2 million in OCT, NOV, and DEC. Even if it has good holidays its unlikely that the PS4 sales will spike like that. 6mil to 8mil is a more reasonable estimate.



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it's ~8



9,5M



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

793k sold so far had some vgc adjustments about 10k or more added to the WW totals for every week of july

 

with my first prediction of 2M sold from july to sept that segment is looking real good now should do 2.5M now which is good cause i need all i can get for the rest of the months



                                                             

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updates up 3rd big VGC update started with 110K weekly in july went to 130k now we're up to 140s

still in line with my prediction of 2M from July to end of Sept 1M down pretty sure it will blow by another 1M in sept



                                                             

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