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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't see the PS4 and the X1 going below $300 price tag for a long time

HylianSwordsman said:

Yeah, lets face it, if the gaming industry were a college campus, the console gamers would be the arts and humanities majors, while the PC gamers would be the hard science majors. So then, does all this basically mean at least a temporary end to the effects of Moore's law and that all these gamers that seem to think we'll see PS5/Nextbox by 2018 are full of shit?

Actually the majority of gamers don't exactly have any sort of secondary education ... While there maybe some more PC gamers who are STEM majors/graduates and myself included there's not a whole lot of differences in education department plus most STEM graduates are too busy making the big bucks rather than going about hobbies such as gaming or going to a forum to participate in consoles wars endlessly bickering.

What will be ending is that we will get no cost reduction when moving on the the next process node temporarily. What I do expect to happen is that once we have 13.5nm EUVL figured out we can get some cost reduction there when manufacturing chips on a smaller process nodes. The gamers that are expecting a PS5/Nextbox in 2018 are indeed full of shit for the most part ...



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phaedruss said:

No because even at the same node process, prices will continue to fall as more and more chips are made.

Didn't I already show a graph proving that your sentiment is extreme ? 



PS4 won't but I could see the X1s price dropping fast considering its current sales.



    

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jnemesh said:

Enough to compensate for inflation...but the relative amounts that you paid vs your annual income is almost identical.

Really ? 



For the most part, I can see them dropping under $300 in 4-5 years, but for it to drop below that before then would take either the complete failure of one of the consoles, and thus fire sales, or for a good portion of the components dropping considerably in price, but averages on gddr5/ddr3, and the apus have remained pretty constant, unless they're phased out entirely by newer tech, and said tech is adopted fast enough to run the new part at mass production and lower it's price, it would have little effect on unit cost.

Could also go the way of DDR2 and temporarilly drive up the unit cost as the part ends it's production lifespan, too.

In short, a sub-$300 ps4 or xbox one comes down to this chance of probability

2014-2016 - 5%
2016-2017 - 8%
2017-2018 - 12%
2018-EOL - 95%



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um you can get a new ps4 shipped for $360 i have a thread in the sony section bout it

i believe one or both MS and sony will get a official cut to at least $349 next year

as far as $299 think you'll see it by fall of 2016



                                                             

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Tamron said:

For the most part, I can see them dropping under $300 in 4-5 years, but for it to drop below that before then would take either the complete failure of one of the consoles, and thus fire sales, or for a good portion of the components dropping considerably in price, but averages on gddr5/ddr3, and the apus have remained pretty constant, unless they're phased out entirely by newer tech, and said tech is adopted fast enough to run the new part at mass production and lower it's price, it would have little effect on unit cost.

Could also go the way of DDR2 and temporarilly drive up the unit cost as the part ends it's production lifespan, too.

In short, a sub-$300 ps4 or xbox one comes down to this chance of probability

2014-2016 - 5%
2016-2017 - 8%
2017-2018 - 12%
2018-EOL - 95%

When do you expect 13.5nm EUVL to reach the fab plants ? 

The key to reducing chip manufacturing costs lies within how good the scanners are ... I could probably see Intel being able to get their hands on a 13.5nm EUV scanner by 2018 but I don't expect either Samsung or TSMC grabbing one until 2020 so I think it'll be a little bit longer until we see official sub $300 prices for current gen consoles. 



fatslob-:O said:
Tamron said:

For the most part, I can see them dropping under $300 in 4-5 years, but for it to drop below that before then would take either the complete failure of one of the consoles, and thus fire sales, or for a good portion of the components dropping considerably in price, but averages on gddr5/ddr3, and the apus have remained pretty constant, unless they're phased out entirely by newer tech, and said tech is adopted fast enough to run the new part at mass production and lower it's price, it would have little effect on unit cost.

Could also go the way of DDR2 and temporarilly drive up the unit cost as the part ends it's production lifespan, too.

In short, a sub-$300 ps4 or xbox one comes down to this chance of probability

2014-2016 - 5%
2016-2017 - 8%
2017-2018 - 12%
2018-EOL - 95%

When do you expect 13.5nm EUVL to reach the fab plants ? 

The key to reducing chip manufacturing costs lies within how good the scanners are ... I could probably see Intel being able to get their hands on a 13.5nm EUV scanner by 2018 but I don't expect either Samsung or TSMC grabbing one until 2020 so I think it'll be a little bit longer until we see official sub $300 prices for current gen consoles. 

relevant:

hexus.net/business/news/components/71929-tsmc-accelerates-development-10nm-process/



You are seeing potential price drops only from the production costs perspective, but mainly supply and demand determine the price of a product.

If the demand stays strong, neither Sony nor Microsoft nor Nintendo would lower their console prices for years, even if the production costs sink... the Wii or PS2 for example in their first years. But if the demand is weak and the competitors get more and more market share they won't have another choice than to lower the price and to hope to make up the losses with software and accessory profits.

Additionally PS4, XBO and Wii U aren't only competing with themselves but also with PC games. Yeah, console and computer gaming (both with their own advantages and disadvantages) have always competed up to a point for decades and consoles are cheaper than PCs. But how much more expensive was a decent gaming PC in the past and now? Every console generation that price advantage toward home consoles got smaller.

Someone in this thread posted a link to that picture:

So how much did a decent gaming PC cost at the same time of a console release? 2x? 5x? 10? Well, you could always buy or build PCs in very different price ranges... from entry level to killer rigs. I tried to find some middle ground and looked up some advertisements in old computer game magazines... setups they thought to appeal PC gamers of that time. CGW has a great archive of all its magazines of 25 years: http://www.cgwmuseum.org/galleries/index.php?year=0&pub=0&id=500

Naturally you could always save 10% - 20% if you built that rig yourself, but these examples are only for a general direction.

In 1986 you would have to be crazy to build a MS-DOS-PC mainly for gaming (if you or your parents needed something IBM-compatible anyways that's another story), an Amiga 1000 or an Atari ST 520 were much better choices for gaming computers. The A1000 costed 7.5x ($1300 without monitor) of a NES, the ST520 costed 4x ($800) of the NES:

 

In Q4/1991 a decent gaming PC with a sound card was in the price range of $2000 - $3000, so 10x - 15x of a SNES:

 

In Q4/1995 a decent gaming PC was still in the price range of $1800 - $3000, so 6x - 10x of a PS1:

 

In Q4/2000 a decent gaming PC was in the price range of $1500 - $2400, so 5x - 8x of a PS2:

 

In Q4/2005 a decent gaming PC was in the price range of $1200 - $1800, so 4x - 6x of a Xbox360 Premium:

 

So where are we now? You can already buy a PC which can keep up with the XBO or PS4 for $800 - $1200, so the 2x - 3x of the new consoles. And the PC costs will fall further the next years, so the console prices can't stand still for years. Graphic cards which can keep up with the PS4 performance already went from high end (GTX 580 / AMD 6970) to upper class (GTX 660 TI / AMD 7950) to upper-middle-class (GTX 760 / AMD 270X). That will continue with a shift to middle-class (GTX 850? / AMD 360X?) to entry cards (GTX 940? / AMD 450?) the next 2 years.




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