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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why I don't see the PS4 and the X1 going below $300 price tag for a long time

zorg1000 said:
I dont know much about specs and what not but I too have felt that once PS4/One reach $299 they will be content to keep them there for awhile. I could see both getting down to $299 by 2016 and remaining there until close to the end of the generation.

The thread itself has little to do with specs but it's still very technical. LOL

As for me though I don't expect them to hit the $300 mark until 2017. I agree that they will most likely not go under $300 until the near end of the generation due to the fact that 13.5nm EUVL isn't coming anytime soon to help reduce wafer prices. 



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The only reason I slightly agree with that is because 360 and PS3 still go for $250.



interesting.
i didnt know about transistors pricing.



fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:
I dont know much about specs and what not but I too have felt that once PS4/One reach $299 they will be content to keep them there for awhile. I could see both getting down to $299 by 2016 and remaining there until close to the end of the generation.

The thread itself has little to do with specs but it's still very technical. LOL

As for me though I don't expect them to hit the $300 mark until 2017. I agree that they will most likely not go under $300 until the near end of the generation due to the fact that 13.5nm EUVL isn't coming anytime soon to help reduce wafer prices. 


welp that proves how little i know about the subject i think 2017 sounds a bit too late but who knows.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

welp that proves how little i know about the subject i think 2017 sounds a bit too late but who knows.

I don't know if this will bother you but the next generation of consoles will most likely end up being the last generation ... The semiconductor and chip designing industry can play every little card they can get their hands on such as die stacking, imrpoving software, or even moving to 13.5nm extreme ultraviolet lithography but nothing will stop the inevtiable end of moore's law. 

The reason why I believe that is due to the fact that we'll get no more or extremely little improvements on the performance per price ratio. 



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I personally think this is way off. Sony and Microsoft went with these APUs because they are cheap and will decrease in price in the near future. The cost will continue to do down on the PS4 especially.



phaedruss said:
I personally think this is way off. Sony and Microsoft went with these APUs because they are cheap and will decrease in price in the near future. The cost will continue to do down on the PS4 especially.

Convince me on why you think this is way off because so far it looks to be that way ... 



I see a price drop of XB1 if there sales still slump after holidays or before. $50-$100. $299 kinectless or $399 kinect and game. There making $28 profit per console as of now, kinect a little more with out kinect. Sony is only making $18 per console. Sony has lost almost 100 billion in the last 7 years. Microsoft just made 8 billion last year. They can afford to drop the price. Sony cannot, but the real money is in the software. So if XB1 doesn't pick up sales quick I see XB1 $100 price drop soon and ps4 will drop $50 soon after if it dramatically boosts XB1 sales. Wii U will drop $100 if XB1 does.



fatslob-:O said:
phaedruss said:
I personally think this is way off. Sony and Microsoft went with these APUs because they are cheap and will decrease in price in the near future. The cost will continue to do down on the PS4 especially.

Convince me on why you think this is way off because so far it looks to be that way ... 


Multiple reasons. Cheap laptop APUs+console bulk quantities+time. It's really as simple as that. These don't change and they'll keep manufacturing more and more of them. More powerful APUs will be more expensive obviously, but the ones in the xbox one and ps4, especially the PS4 since it doesn't have the esRAM, will drop in price pretty quickly. Not to mention the cost of GDDR5 will go down in regards to the PS4 at least. Whether or not DDR3 will continue to go down is another story as I've seen a convincing argument that as DDR4 is adopted DDR3 will get more expensive.

 

EDIT: Also, your entire premise is based on a smaller node process, right? Well you don't need a smaller node process for the current one to get cheaper, in fact it'll probably continue to get cheaper and cheaper.



phaedruss said:

Multiple reasons. Cheap laptop APUs+console bulk quantities+time. It's really as simple as that. These don't change and they'll keep manufacturing more and more of them. More powerful APUs will be more expensive obviously, but the ones in the xbox one and ps4, especially the PS4 since it doesn't have the esRAM, will drop in price pretty quickly. Not to mention the cost of GDDR5 will go down in regards to the PS4 at least. Whether or not DDR3 will continue to go down is another story as I've seen a convincing argument that as DDR4 is adopted DDR3 will get more expensive.

 

EDIT: Also, your entire premise is based on a smaller node process, right? Well you don't need a smaller node process for the current one to get cheaper, in fact it'll probably continue to get cheaper and cheaper.

These APU's are far from cheap ... In fact they are porbably more expensive to manufacture than the AMD kaveri APUs. A 350mm^2 die sure may not be top of the end but it does have a sizeable manufacturing cost. I don't expect the cost of GDDR5 going down significantly and the same goes for DDR3 because they both depended on the free lunch that moore's law provided to get a cost reduction. 

Current node is the cheapest and it is already in an asymptote so don't expect any sort of marignal improvements in cost reduction. I'm giving it 5% improvement at BEST years later down the road.