logic suggests it wont.
eg, if the consoles were at 5m and 8m (just to make life easier), and sold roughly the same:

5m 8m (half is 4m, xbox 1m away from being half)
6m 9m (half is 4.5m xbox 1.5m away from being half)
7m 10m (half is 5m xbox 2m away from being half)

if the ps4 sold 500k more:

5m 8m (half is 4m, xbox 1m away from being half)
6m 9.5m (half is 4.75m xbox 1.25m away from being half)
7m 11m (half is 5.5m xbox 1.5m away from being half)

Basic maths, basically.

Remember, theres a 5 year old and a 10 year old, and th 5 year old is only ever half the age of the 10 year old for that one year, in 30 years they would be 35 and 40, the distance between being half of something grows larger on its own because thats just how numbers work.

It would take a hefty surge in sales in a very one sided way to mke ps4 hit the hallowed "twice as much" thing, and providing the xbox one didnt flop, chances are that by the next sales data the ps4 would lose that status, and slowly move further and further away.

It's possible it can triple it early in the gen (Although it probably won't), but it probably won't be able to do it lifetime.

Most likely by the end of September. There are quite a few games coming out that will increase the gap, as they will sell better on PS4. And XOne doesn't have a system seller until November.
August: TLoU and Diablo
September: Destiny, FIFA (there it doubles around Sept. 30)
October: GTA, Battlefield
November: LBP3, Far Cry 4

The only way Forza or Sunset can sell systems is if they are bundled for free. Halo will probably win November for X1. And return the ratio to below 2:1.

People don't seem to realize just how bad the 2014 numbers are for XB1.

The total numbers are incredibly deceptive due to front-loaded sales in Nov/Dec 13. And people are used to looking at the US numbers and forgetting the global beatdown that PS4 is dishing out.

GLOBAL 2014 numbers :



IF that keeps up, doubling XB1 this year is in the bag easily.

Still sticking to my prediction of never. If PS4 ever doubles it will only be slight and it will not last for long. If PS4 doesn't manage to double this year it will never.

I think by October or November 2014.

With the games starting to roll out pretty regularly now, and the PS4 versions continuing to out perform XBO versions, I think it will be soon. June may be a little bit of a set back due to the Kinectless model, but it should still be better than 2:1 in favor of PS4. September does look like the most reasonable time for it to happen IMO.

I think PS4 will finish the year almost 3:1. Should see PS4 near 18M with XBO around 7M. I see this winter being rough for XBO as the die hards will have already picked one up last year, and the remaining gaming crowd, and casual-core gamers will choose PS4 in mass numbers due to noticeably better versions of multi-plats social media dominance.

Remember, PS4 sold 4.2 Million units on 6 weeks last year with no big software announced, and large supply issues. I think 5 million WW in December this year is not out of the question as long as stock holds.

On purpose or not, their is big flaws in your math. You don't only assume that the ps4 is selling 500k more, you assume also that the xbox one is selling 1  million a month, and the PS4 1.5 millions. That's a pretty big assumption.

First, 1.5 millions and 1 million is quite a lot on average. Second, it makes the ps4 selling only 50% more, even if it's currently selling more than 2:1 on average. It can even sell up to 4:1 in worst/best case.

The real math is the following. Whatever xbox one and ps4 sell, if the PS4 sell :

- exactly twice as much, the gap will keep forever, but the total will more and more close to twice as much. For example 15m/28m, 25m/48m, 50m/98m.
- more than twice as much, the gap to make it twice as much will reduce, then disappear. Total will be twice as much, or more.
- less than twice as much, the gap will grow forever, the answer is never. That's the assumption you are making.

For a long time, the PS4 has been selling more than twice as much, if it continues to do so, PS4 will at some point have sold twice as much, that's math.

Let's make a simple (very rough) calculation for example. I heard that in 2013  the PS4 sold 4.2 millions and the xbox one 3 millions.
It would mean 3.9m vs 1.5m sales for current year. For 6 months, so it makes it an average of 650K vs 250K a month.
If we keep the same monthyl sales, and want to know how long it take to sales twice, we get something like that, X the number of month, m for millions, k for 1000 :
8.1m+650k*X = 2 * (4.5m+250k*X)
→ 8,100,000 + 650,000X = 9,000,000 + 500,000X
→ X = 6  (ie 6 months, 12m versus 6m)
So it would take 6 months if it kept the yearly average sales. It should be selling quite less on average, we add christmas and 6~8 months is possible.
If you disagree on the calculation data or want to cover different months to calculate the sale average, please provide.
NB: I fixed the calculation

As long as the PS4 sells more a month WW than the XBO then over time the gap will increase in favour of PS4. It's just the speed of that gap that we don't yet fully know.

I think without the price drop it would have been a massive chance of it happening this year. With the price drop and launching in other countries, i think that will slow it down somewhat.

May, I think we can expect that the PS4 to be over double the XBO worldwide.
June, I think we can expect the PS4 to be over the XBO - though closer.
July... Gap starts to increase slightly again as price cut rush drops off, and TLOU comes out.
August ... Gap continues to increase slightly.
September... Massive gap change in favour of PS4.
October... Massive Gap change in favour of PS4.
November... Gap closes again due to Halo.
December... Gap stabilises.

So for me, I really don't see on a WW basis where MS will beat Sony this year. So in theory the doubling to XBO will improve on sony's side... we just don't know yet how much :)

September

I think that even with TLOU, all hardware numbers will be a bit dry during the summer due to the lack of big releases