Which month will it happen? | |||
| June | 16 | 2.45% | |
| July | 56 | 8.58% | |
| August | 77 | 11.79% | |
| September | 146 | 22.36% | |
| October | 46 | 7.04% | |
| November | 54 | 8.27% | |
| December | 78 | 11.94% | |
| 2015 | 81 | 12.40% | |
| 2016+ | 16 | 2.45% | |
| Never | 83 | 12.71% | |
| Total: | 653 | ||
Sometime next year. Or outstandingly this holiday.
e=mc^2
Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)
RolStoppable said:
3.6m plus 400k is not 4.5m. But even if you assume that the PS4 adds at least 150k units to its lead over the X1 each month, you didn't take into account that the X1 total will increase, meaning that the necessary 4.5m lead to double X1 sales only holds true as long as the X1 sits at 4.5m units. |
Sorry I meant 900k.
900k is how much more of a lead the PS4 needs to make up to double the XB1. The only way that number gets higher than 900k is if the XB1 starts selling better than the PS4 worldwide.
And with my 150k estimate i was actually lowballing it. The PS4 has been consistently doing more than 2:1 sales over the XB1 all year so far. That means even if you take intio account the XB1 sales going up, as long as the PS4 keeps doing more close to 2:1 worldwide sales over the XB1 it will still double it in sales by at least the end of this year. Especially during the fall season when sales are known to sometimes be 4 times as much as the mothly average during the the slower months.
If MS would act smart(which is unlikely) and continue to push x1(which is likely), then "Never", otherwise - 2015.
Well if it doesn't manage to do it in June July or August then It won't do it at all this year.
It needs to sell 900,000 units and the Xbox One needs to stand still. It will be close by the end of August but then the Xbox One will have it's phase 2 launch along with Destiny and Forza Horizon 2.
PS4 will get a bigger boost from Destiny + Bundles than the Xbox One, but the fall line-up looks stronger on the Xbox One.
CoD getting the best on Xbox treatment, Sunset Overdrive and Master Chief Collection.
Top 5 Most Anticipated Games:
- Quantum Break
- Cyberpunk 2077
- Destiny
- The Division
- Final Fantasy XV
well if the 399 dosent change the trajectory of the one too much then it should be Aug but if it holds out due to that then Sept is a safe bet with Destiny launching
| shikamaru317 said: The June boost will make doubling very unlikely at any point in time. Xbox One should sell at least 350k in June and pass 5 million by the end of July, and 5.2-5.3 million by the end of August. There's no way that PS4 will sell 2.3-2.5 million units in the next 3 months. Then in September Xbox One releases in tier 2 countries which should provide a pretty significant boost, and then in October we'll start seeing a boost from Xbox One's holiday exclusives (late September Forza Horizon 2, October Sunset Overdrive, November Halo Collection). PS4 will not double the Xbox One at any point this year, and quite possibly not at any point this generation. |
This is so wrong it's painful to witness.
There is basically zero June boost, this is basically proven by the Gamestop/Amazon numbers only showing a small blip for 1-2 days (with ZERO stock shortages, it's just the demand fell right back into the tar).
Tier 2 countries with any disposable income at all have had access to XB1 since launch, so the people that can afford them can already easily buy them if they choose. They also are Tier 2 for the specific reason that the 360 did horribly in those countries last gen, AND are smaller/lower income places generally. Now add in X1 to the mix, which is doing FAR FAR worse in Europe than the 360 did vs PS3, and you have a recipe for GAF's infamous 'It's f*cking nothing' gif.
The exclusives are meh. FH2 is countered by Drive Club, Sunset Overdrive isn't attracting much in the way of preorders (and has one of the most unfortunately chosen release dates in gaming history, it's going to get TOTALLY buried), and even Halo MCC isn't likely to do much beyond sell to the core Xbox fanbase that already has XB1s (this is PRECISELY what happened with Titanfall by the way, which is why the software sales of TF were good, but XB1 barely twitched on the sales charts).
Add to this, the PS4 has DC, LBP3, TLOU:HD, Infamous : First Light, Guilty Gear Xrd, Samurai Warriors 4, Planetside 2, yadda yadda AND the best versions of a plethora of massive multiplats that will probably dwarf all the PS4/XB1 exclusives for 2014. COD:AW and Destiny will sell mountains of copies, and Destiny alone will cause a mass upswing for PS4 AHEAD of the holiday season.
XB1 can't stop the global trends, it can't even jump start at $399 for more than a day or two on the sales charts. Doubling will likely happen within 45 days. REmember that the gap is actually LARGER than the VGC numbers have it listed at the moment because it takes time for the figures to come in.
As the holidays come and sales ramp up globally, XB1 will do okay numbers in the US, but nada elsewhere except the UK. Europe will be 6 to 1 against in the most optimistic light for XB1, and probably closer to 8-1+.
Doubling? By Jan 1st, 2016 we will see a TRIPLING of XB1 globally.
| Arkaign said: This is so wrong it's painful to witness. There is basically zero June boost, this is basically proven by the Gamestop/Amazon numbers only showing a small blip for 1-2 days (with ZERO stock shortages, it's just the demand fell right back into the tar). Tier 2 countries with any disposable income at all have had access to XB1 since launch, so the people that can afford them can already easily buy them if they choose. They also are Tier 2 for the specific reason that the 360 did horribly in those countries last gen, AND are smaller/lower income places generally. Now add in X1 to the mix, which is doing FAR FAR worse in Europe than the 360 did vs PS3, and you have a recipe for GAF's infamous 'It's f*cking nothing' gif. The exclusives are meh. FH2 is countered by Drive Club, Sunset Overdrive isn't attracting much in the way of preorders (and has one of the most unfortunately chosen release dates in gaming history, it's going to get TOTALLY buried), and even Halo MCC isn't likely to do much beyond sell to the core Xbox fanbase that already has XB1s (this is PRECISELY what happened with Titanfall by the way, which is why the software sales of TF were good, but XB1 barely twitched on the sales charts). Add to this, the PS4 has DC, LBP3, TLOU:HD, Infamous : First Light, Guilty Gear Xrd, Samurai Warriors 4, Planetside 2, yadda yadda AND the best versions of a plethora of massive multiplats that will probably dwarf all the PS4/XB1 exclusives for 2014. COD:AW and Destiny will sell mountains of copies, and Destiny alone will cause a mass upswing for PS4 AHEAD of the holiday season. XB1 can't stop the global trends, it can't even jump start at $399 for more than a day or two on the sales charts. Doubling will likely happen within 45 days. REmember that the gap is actually LARGER than the VGC numbers have it listed at the moment because it takes time for the figures to come in. As the holidays come and sales ramp up globally, XB1 will do okay numbers in the US, but nada elsewhere except the UK. Europe will be 6 to 1 against in the most optimistic light for XB1, and probably closer to 8-1+. Doubling? By Jan 1st, 2016 we will see a TRIPLING of XB1 globally. |
I'm not saying you're wrong, but you say that as if you think Xbox One has no chance of selling over half of what PS4 does in the whole gen. How much do you think they'll sell lifetime?
After the Destiny + Gta5 pack probably.
Double pack with the most anticipated new Ip with White ps4 (even for that, i want to buy this pack...erk) and probably another pack with gta5 + exclusive content or goodies.
I think it will be enough for double the Xone numbers, after gta 5 is released, so huh...november ? Something like that ?
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