| shikamaru317 said: The June boost will make doubling very unlikely at any point in time. Xbox One should sell at least 350k in June and pass 5 million by the end of July, and 5.2-5.3 million by the end of August. There's no way that PS4 will sell 2.3-2.5 million units in the next 3 months. Then in September Xbox One releases in tier 2 countries which should provide a pretty significant boost, and then in October we'll start seeing a boost from Xbox One's holiday exclusives (late September Forza Horizon 2, October Sunset Overdrive, November Halo Collection). PS4 will not double the Xbox One at any point this year, and quite possibly not at any point this generation. |
This is so wrong it's painful to witness.
There is basically zero June boost, this is basically proven by the Gamestop/Amazon numbers only showing a small blip for 1-2 days (with ZERO stock shortages, it's just the demand fell right back into the tar).
Tier 2 countries with any disposable income at all have had access to XB1 since launch, so the people that can afford them can already easily buy them if they choose. They also are Tier 2 for the specific reason that the 360 did horribly in those countries last gen, AND are smaller/lower income places generally. Now add in X1 to the mix, which is doing FAR FAR worse in Europe than the 360 did vs PS3, and you have a recipe for GAF's infamous 'It's f*cking nothing' gif.
The exclusives are meh. FH2 is countered by Drive Club, Sunset Overdrive isn't attracting much in the way of preorders (and has one of the most unfortunately chosen release dates in gaming history, it's going to get TOTALLY buried), and even Halo MCC isn't likely to do much beyond sell to the core Xbox fanbase that already has XB1s (this is PRECISELY what happened with Titanfall by the way, which is why the software sales of TF were good, but XB1 barely twitched on the sales charts).
Add to this, the PS4 has DC, LBP3, TLOU:HD, Infamous : First Light, Guilty Gear Xrd, Samurai Warriors 4, Planetside 2, yadda yadda AND the best versions of a plethora of massive multiplats that will probably dwarf all the PS4/XB1 exclusives for 2014. COD:AW and Destiny will sell mountains of copies, and Destiny alone will cause a mass upswing for PS4 AHEAD of the holiday season.
XB1 can't stop the global trends, it can't even jump start at $399 for more than a day or two on the sales charts. Doubling will likely happen within 45 days. REmember that the gap is actually LARGER than the VGC numbers have it listed at the moment because it takes time for the figures to come in.
As the holidays come and sales ramp up globally, XB1 will do okay numbers in the US, but nada elsewhere except the UK. Europe will be 6 to 1 against in the most optimistic light for XB1, and probably closer to 8-1+.
Doubling? By Jan 1st, 2016 we will see a TRIPLING of XB1 globally.
