Arkaign said:
It's hard to say. We'll certainly know more when they both drop to the $299 range (maybe fall 2015ish imho is likely). That's when a good number of 7th gen holdouts will start coming to join the party. Remember that a lot of people only recently bought 7th gen consoles, and there are a huge number of people who like to play games that don't have a lot of discretionary income at all.
Anyway, back to your Q, I'd estimate 95-115M PS4, with XB1 running about 40% of that total, plus or minus a few million. It could turn out worse for both of them. The ratios appear pretty locked in though, so it's severely unlikely that anything will change the gap. Europe is dead to XB1, so is Japan/China for various reasons (ditto PS4 to be honest, that's a mobile world for Japan and a PC/pirate world for China). So that leaves the US/UK. Even IF (and that's a HUGE HUGE HUGE "IF") the XB1 magically manages to pull close to the PS4 in the US/UK, it won't be enough to get anywhere in the same universe of closing the gap globally.
Install bases snowball, as people want to play with their friends, and the lead in Europe is so huge that XB1 may start to suffer from stores not even stocking them within a year or two, or at the very least severely limited shelf space, merchandising, advertising.
Right now people are still living in a partial fantasy land because 360 was so popular in the US last gen. But if you look at the numbers, XB1 had a great Nov/Dec, and has been in a tailspin ever since. It was front-loaded to their most dedicated fanbase, but isn't capturing the attention of the wider market at all. If they can't change that, they're as good as dead. Their business model isn't built like Nintendo where they can fly under the radar a bit, their operations are immensely expensive and built on mass adoption.
|
