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Forums - Nintendo - Bayonetta 2: Lifetime Sales? Also How Many Sales Would It Need To Not Be a Flop? (Cuz Many Believe its Doomed)

 

Bayonetta Needs to Sell At Least ___ To Not Bomb!

200k 7 4.76%
 
300k 7 4.76%
 
400k 10 6.80%
 
500k 33 22.45%
 
600k 17 11.56%
 
700k 15 10.20%
 
800k 21 14.29%
 
1mil 35 23.81%
 
Total:145
ToxicJosh on 11 June 2014

I dunno, let's say it cost $25 million to develop (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_development average multiplat is $18-25).

Let's also say wholesale price is $45. Disk, shipping etc. $5. So Nintendo would get $40 per copy sold.

It would need to sell 625k to break even.

Seems plausible to me.



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drake_tolu on 11 June 2014
Fusioncode said:
The W101 sold 200k so I'll be optimistic and say this will do 500k.


based on sales of W101 is a stupidity.

Also, TW101 will sold 300-400 K in the end of generation, the Nintendari don't buy much on D1.



bananaking21 on 11 June 2014

400k.



small44 on 11 June 2014

300k



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

bananaking21 on 11 June 2014
ToxicJosh said:
I dunno, let's say it cost $25 million to develop (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_development average multiplat is $18-25).

Let's also say wholesale price is $45. Disk, shipping etc. $5. So Nintendo would get $40 per copy sold.

It would need to sell 625k to break even.

Seems plausible to me.

nintendo would actually get 34$ not 40$ from a 60$ game sale. 



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TheLastStarFighter on 11 June 2014

I think over 500k should be expected. I expect it to sell over 1 million.



ToxicJosh on 11 June 2014

Hey, wasn't far off!

735k then, assuming it cost the top end of the multi-plat average.



Lawlight on 11 June 2014

It sold around 1.5M on the PS3 and 360 and Sega didn't think that was enough. I'd say 1M.



binary solo on 11 June 2014
bananaking21 said:
ToxicJosh said:
I dunno, let's say it cost $25 million to develop (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_development average multiplat is $18-25).

Let's also say wholesale price is $45. Disk, shipping etc. $5. So Nintendo would get $40 per copy sold.

It would need to sell 625k to break even.

Seems plausible to me.

nintendo would actually get 34$ not 40$ from a 60$ game sale. 

So the developer gets nada? I think that pie is missing a slice.

In my view it will only be a true flop if it reviews poorly. The sales will be underwhelming whatever they are because the game won't sell anything like B1, but that's fully expected so you can't say it'll be a sales flop when it sells according to expectations. I think it will be lucky to reach break even to make it not a financial flop. The current majority of the Wii U install base is NOT the target audience for B2. B2 is intended to get last gen's PS360 only owners to buy Wii U, and B2 isn't enough of a draw for that so I think <500K.

B1 was not a great seller to start with, which is why it was denied a sequel until Ninty stumped up the cash. So I don't see B2 achieving anything but modest sales.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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Burek on 11 June 2014

Developer is not a part of the pie. They take a contractual bite from the publisher's slice, whether it's a preset amount they receive upfront, or a variable amount dependant on sales.
As far as this game, I believe its content is far outside of an average WiiU owner's comfort zone, and will sell accordingly, between 200-300K. However, I believe that's enough for it to be profitable, as it is probably not a terribly expensive game, and its marketing budget will most likely be in single digits...