I have a Gamepro account with the exact same user name as this, lol. Well I could just spend more time on Gamepro enjoying the one month vacation if it does occur.
Anyway Nintendo is struggling to produce enough consoles so anywhere between 40 million to 45 million would be an estimate for sales at end of the year.

Well from April onwards I expect a massive production increase. Nintendo's financial year ends in April, they made, or even slightly surpassed, their sales projections and will announce new, higher sales projections for the coming Quarter, make those, raise production again, etc....

It's been like this in 2007 and will continue this year.

45 million bet is no different from tossing-a-dice bet. What's the point?

Get JL here and I will bet 1 year ban for his 500 million Wii LT bet.

This bet is way too plausible, with the utmost certainty, Wii will hit 45 mil.

Like KoW said, I'd make a ban bet for a month with JL for that 500 mil lifetime sales of the Wii. That would be a lot more fun.

Considering that it reached 20 million by this year, and the trend for consoles is to increase sales each year, 45 million is hardly unreasonable, especially after we had John Lucas come withing a margin of error in his totally scoffed at prediction that Wii would reach 20 million last year. He basically set the bar at 60 million for this year, even if you thought john Lucas was over estimating, 50 million would be a safe bet, 45 is almost guaranteed when you look at past performance.

I've seen many people saying Wii won't sell much this year (MGS4, GTA4, recession, Nintendo won't increase production, the list goes on). Some people even say demand will drop significantly when some of those things happen. This bet was mostly a way to probe how many people believed it enough to risk something. BTW if you see above, you'll see where the 45m number comes from.

It's a weak bet, NJ5. It's like betting against the PS3 selling 18m units this year. 45m will be sold with ease. 50m seems likely to me.

@kingofwale: If you think it's like tossing a coin, I can give you 2:1 odds (2 months ban for me vs 1 month ban for you, or 1 month vs 15 days). Does that seem more attractive? :P

Ban bets seem masochistic to me... If I loose, I am hurt with a ban... If I win, I don't gain anything, and I don't really want to see someone else banned... Now if there is someone who really annoys me it might be interesting, but generally I just find people I disagree with as funny and so I would miss their entertaining posts. lol