mornelithe said: There are over 100 million PS3/360's out there, and less than 20 mil X1/PS4's. Do the math. |
Doing the math, let us presume that the 20million PS4/X1 owners are dedicated gamers - which is a fair presumption - that takes the numbers for potential last-gen sales down to around 80million. Then let us take into consideration the fact that the failure rate of the Xbox 360 was enormous, and that we do not know whether replacement systems are counted amongst total sales, so lets say that shaves 30% off the total for Xbox 360 (and presume that the users are an equal split between consoles) then the total userbase drops to roughly 68million. Then let us say that general wear and tear, accidental damage, amongst other things mean that a further 30% of people had to go out and buy a new console (a fairly low/average percentage considering the eight years the consoles were available), and that shaves off an additional 20.4million users, bringing the total down to roughly 48million users. Then of that 48million user-base, lets say a quarter are casual gamers that only pick up a few annual franchises such as Call of Duty, Gran Turismo, Forza, MLB: The Show, and you lose a further 12million users. Suddenly you are down at a potential user-base of 36million people. Take into consideration that people who have bought new-generation hardware are FAR more likely to pick up new games as they are actively looking for something to play on their new systems, and the numbers seem to work more and more in favour of new-generation titles only.