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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Does Sony win every generation by default?

padib said:
Soundwave said:

When this generation is done, Sony will have routed Nintendo in 3 out of 4 consecutive home console generations. 

And even in the one generation Nintendo "won", which required a miracle novelty to pull off, Sony may actually end up selling more PS3s than Wiis when all is said and done. 

"Lack of games" for Nintendo is actually apt, but what Nintendo fans never want to admit is that's from a lack of third party support. Nintendo never makes the console that third parties want, they always try to be cute and do it their way and end up paying the price for being stubborn. Mario/Zelda/Mario Kart/Smash do not appeal to enough people to win a console generation on their own. 

They won't even get the Wii U to 20 million. The differeniator for the first Wii was the casual Wii Sports/Fit crazes, but the above poster is correct, Nintendo is unable to repeat their success with that crowd now that there is a much more attractive gaming medium availble to give that type of audience their daily/weekly gaming fix -- smartphones/tablets. So that avenue has been cut off for Nintendo, now they're back to their usual GameCube like sales (worse actually).

If you're Sony it's very easy to beat up on Nintendo in the console business: 1.) Just sit back, wait for Nintendo to make some silly, arbitrarily strange decisions with their console 2.) make your own console with straight forward design decisions that the majority of the dev community backs 3.) beat up on Nintendo for the next 5-6 years. Nintendo is easy pickings for Sony, they always shoot themselves in the foot a couple of times with at least 2-3 stupid, completely unforced decisions each generation. 

I am a Nintendo fan and I admit that Nintendo home consoles don't get nearly as much 3rd party support as other home consoles.

However, Nintendo can sell consoles on their own, and don't need 3rd parties. The proof systems for that are Nintendo's portable line and the Wii. This thread has the data -> http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=183687

@underlined. You don't know that. You are speculating. It's much more clear, however, that Nintendo is able to sell to that market as they always have, again I will point you to the portable line and the Wii.

Your last paragraph is your personal fantasy. Nintendo makes their decisions based on the market they are aiming. You intend for Nintendo to aim a market which they don't intend to reach, and as such project what you believe are the best decisions to target that market on Nintendo's decisions while they are targeting another market. It's the same mistake repeated over and over on the internet.

The portable and home console markets are very different, equating one to the other is false. It would be like saying "well Sony should beat Nintendo with handhelds one of these days because they have no problem beating Nintendo's consoles". Which I'm sure you'd claim "no" to even though it's the same logic you're trying to push. These are different markets. 

And Sony has not just beaten Nintendo, they've quite frankly WHUPPED them in the console arena. Nintendo hasn't even made them sweat, I mean the PS1, 2, and 4 are going to run away from their Nintendo counterparts by a country mile and not even look back. 

The console market is more driven by older consumers in the household (usually the teenager of the house is the one who makes  the console choice IMO, the little 8 year old is just happy with anything that they can play LEGO/whatever on). 

Sony's been in the console business for basically 20 years now, and really they've had no problem dominating Nintendo here for basically 16-17 of the 20 years. The only blip on the radar was the 2006-09 spurt from Nintendo. This is not a "coincidence" anymore, this is not "Nintendo just needs to fix a few things" ... this is consistent domination. 

I'm sorry, but there's no way else to put it, the way the PS4 just sprinted past the Wii U like it was nothing just hammers it home even more. 



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padib said:
Soundwave said:

When this generation is done, Sony will have routed Nintendo in 3 out of 4 consecutive home console generations. 

And even in the one generation Nintendo "won", which required a miracle novelty to pull off, Sony may actually end up selling more PS3s than Wiis when all is said and done. 

"Lack of games" for Nintendo is actually apt, but what Nintendo fans never want to admit is that's from a lack of third party support. Nintendo never makes the console that third parties want, they always try to be cute and do it their way and end up paying the price for being stubborn. Mario/Zelda/Mario Kart/Smash do not appeal to enough people to win a console generation on their own. 

They won't even get the Wii U to 20 million. The differeniator for the first Wii was the casual Wii Sports/Fit crazes, but the above poster is correct, Nintendo is unable to repeat their success with that crowd now that there is a much more attractive gaming medium availble to give that type of audience their daily/weekly gaming fix -- smartphones/tablets. So that avenue has been cut off for Nintendo, now they're back to their usual GameCube like sales (worse actually).

If you're Sony it's very easy to beat up on Nintendo in the console business: 1.) Just sit back, wait for Nintendo to make some silly, arbitrarily strange decisions with their console 2.) make your own console with straight forward design decisions that the majority of the dev community backs 3.) beat up on Nintendo for the next 5-6 years. Nintendo is easy pickings for Sony, they always shoot themselves in the foot a couple of times with at least 2-3 stupid, completely unforced decisions each generation. 

I am a Nintendo fan and I admit that Nintendo home consoles don't get nearly as much 3rd party support as other home consoles.

However, Nintendo can sell consoles on their own, and don't need 3rd parties. The proof systems for that are Nintendo's portable line and the Wii. This thread has the data -> http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=183687

@underlined. You don't know that. You are speculating. It's much more clear, however, that Nintendo is able to sell to that market as they always have, again I will point you to the portable line and the Wii.

Your last paragraph is your personal fantasy. Nintendo makes their decisions based on the market they are aiming. You intend for Nintendo to aim a market which they don't intend to reach, and as such project what you believe are the best decisions to target that market on Nintendo's decisions while they are targeting another market. It's the same mistake repeated over and over on the internet.

The portable and home console markets are very different, equating one to the other is false. It would be like saying "well Sony should beat Nintendo with handhelds one of these days because they have no problem beating Nintendo's consoles". Which I'm sure you'd claim "no" to even though it's the same logic you're trying to push. These are different markets. 

And Sony has not just beaten Nintendo, they've quite frankly WHUPPED them in the console arena. Nintendo hasn't even made them sweat, I mean the PS1, 2, and 4 are going to run away from their Nintendo counterparts by a country mile and not even look back. 

The console market is more driven by older consumers in the household (usually the teenager of the house is the one who makes  the console choice IMO, the little 8 year old is just happy with anything that they can play LEGO/whatever on). 

Sony's been in the console business for basically 20 years now, and really they've had no problem dominating Nintendo here for basically 16-17 of the 20 years. The only blip on the radar was the 2006-09 spurt from Nintendo. This is not a "coincidence" anymore, this is not "Nintendo just needs to fix a few things" ... this is fairly consistent domination on Sony's part. I mean these console cycles aren't even *close*, it's not like the N64 sold 85 million and the PSOne at 100 million or GameCube at 90 million and PS2 at 150 million. PS4 is doing the same thing to the Wii U, blowing past it's 1 year lead like it was nothing. 

Nintendo really isn't much in the way of competetion for a Sony console the majority of the time. Whatever Sony's philosophy is for making a home console, it simply resonates with a global audience a heckuva lot more than Nintendo's vision. 



COnsidering this is the only 4th home console generation for Sony, and they won 2, lost 1, I don't think it's a good enough sample to claim "every generation". Plus, their handheld systems have failed against their rival Nintendo offerings. So out of 5 existing systems, they won 2. Far from "every generation". Heck, they were desperate when they even went as far as to copy Nintendo and make their failed "Move" controller. That was a true low point for Sony.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

http://www.thecarnivalofshadows.com 


Raze said:

COnsidering this is the only 4th home console generation for Sony, and they won 2, lost 1, I don't think it's a good enough sample to claim "every generation". Plus, their handheld systems have failed against their rival Nintendo offerings. So out of 5 existing systems, they won 2. Far from "every generation". Heck, they were desperate when they even went as far as to copy Nintendo and make their failed "Move" controller. That was a true low point for Sony.


It's been a 20 year sample now almost (Playstation launched in Japan in 1994). Of those 20 years, Nintendo's had really 3 or 4 years where they've been the dominant console maker, the rest of the time they've been beaten fairly soundly. 

Do we need 50 years to declare that Nintendo has problems competing with Sony home consoles? 

The N64 and GameCube weren't even competetive with the Playstation 1/2, and the Wii U looks like the same exact story. 



Soundwave said:
Raze said:

COnsidering this is the only 4th home console generation for Sony, and they won 2, lost 1, I don't think it's a good enough sample to claim "every generation". Plus, their handheld systems have failed against their rival Nintendo offerings. So out of 5 existing systems, they won 2. Far from "every generation". Heck, they were desperate when they even went as far as to copy Nintendo and make their failed "Move" controller. That was a true low point for Sony.


It's been a 20 year sample now almost (Playstation launched in Japan in 1994). Of those 20 years, Nintendo's had really 3 or 4 years where they've been the dominant console maker, the rest of the time they've been beaten fairly soundly. 

Do we need 50 years to declare that Nintendo has problems competing with Sony home consoles? 

The N64 and GameCube weren't even competetive with the Playstation 1/2, and the Wii U looks like the same exact story. 

Years don't matter when talking about generation sales. Simplified to the amount of console generations that have passed, we are talking about 3 generations. 2 of 3 home consoles, Sony dominated, no question there. Handheld systems, Sony couldn't compete at all.  Current generation is still new, we can discuss when the NEXT generation comes along.

The Wii U isn't horribly behind the PS4, granted they are moving systems at a slower rate. Yet with the flagship Mario Kart released today, that gap may shrink. A lot of people have been waiting for games they wanted. Heck, I waited until Ocarina of Time came out before getting a N64, and that was in 1998 (the N64 released in 1996). With another big title, Super Smash Bros coming out later this year, I believe that sales are going to pick up to be competitive.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

http://www.thecarnivalofshadows.com 


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yes



Raze said:
Soundwave said:
Raze said:

COnsidering this is the only 4th home console generation for Sony, and they won 2, lost 1, I don't think it's a good enough sample to claim "every generation". Plus, their handheld systems have failed against their rival Nintendo offerings. So out of 5 existing systems, they won 2. Far from "every generation". Heck, they were desperate when they even went as far as to copy Nintendo and make their failed "Move" controller. That was a true low point for Sony.


It's been a 20 year sample now almost (Playstation launched in Japan in 1994). Of those 20 years, Nintendo's had really 3 or 4 years where they've been the dominant console maker, the rest of the time they've been beaten fairly soundly. 

Do we need 50 years to declare that Nintendo has problems competing with Sony home consoles? 

The N64 and GameCube weren't even competetive with the Playstation 1/2, and the Wii U looks like the same exact story. 

Years don't matter when talking about generation sales. Simplified to the amount of console generations that have passed, we are talking about 3 generations. 2 of 3 home consoles, Sony dominated, no question there. Handheld systems, Sony couldn't compete at all.  Current generation is still new, we can discuss when the NEXT generation comes along.

The Wii U isn't horribly behind the PS4, granted they are moving systems at a slower rate. Yet with the flagship Mario Kart released today, that gap may shrink. A lot of people have been waiting for games they wanted. Heck, I waited until Ocarina of Time came out before getting a N64, and that was in 1998 (the N64 released in 1996). With another big title, Super Smash Bros coming out later this year, I believe that sales are going to pick up to be competitive.

Wii U is not even going to sniff PS4's LTD. N64 at least was competetive with the PSOne for a little while, Wii U is just another GameCube, Mario Kart will maybe let Nintendo enjoy PS4-size sales for a 2-4 week period and then sink back down, Smash Bros. will do even less, after that what else does Nintendo have? *crickets*

I like Nintendo games but objectively looking at their market chances here, they're not good. NSMBU and Wii Fit U should've done a lot more if there really was any momentum carried over from last gen. Fickle casuals come and go, that's the problem with relying on them. 



padib said:
DonFerrari said:
Evidence for Nintendo being capable for selling home consoles only with the 1st party is the Fluke and handhelds, excellent... let's just ignore N64 (where Sony was a newcomer and Sega was lost in HW nightmare) and GC (where are our fans) or even WiiU (the worst selling curve of any Nintendo HW besides the real floppy virtual boy, that also doesn't count as Nintendo not able to sell alone)... so we keep at Wii, that fell from the skycrapper after 3 years in the sky and handhelds that unfortunately are contracting.

You must be excited for my next thread, where I prove that Nintendo hits almost consistently 40% publisher ratio on all its consoles.

Excellent.


By that you mean 40% of all sw sold on any nintendo platform is 1st party? And you don't see that as basically the biggest reason for the lack of support of 3rd parties?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

padib said:
DonFerrari said:
padib said:
DonFerrari said:
Evidence for Nintendo being capable for selling home consoles only with the 1st party is the Fluke and handhelds, excellent... let's just ignore N64 (where Sony was a newcomer and Sega was lost in HW nightmare) and GC (where are our fans) or even WiiU (the worst selling curve of any Nintendo HW besides the real floppy virtual boy, that also doesn't count as Nintendo not able to sell alone)... so we keep at Wii, that fell from the skycrapper after 3 years in the sky and handhelds that unfortunately are contracting.

You must be excited for my next thread, where I prove that Nintendo hits almost consistently 40% publisher ratio on all its consoles.

Excellent.


By that you mean 40% of all sw sold on any nintendo platform is 1st party? And you don't see that as basically the biggest reason for the lack of support of 3rd parties?

Of course I see that as the biggest reason for lack of 3rd party support. (and also the same reason why I argue that 3rd party support is secondary on Nintendo consoles, unlike Sony and MS, despite what fans consistently argue).

However it's far from being the reason why the Wii was a fluke and the portables are "just portables". Nintendo games are popular, and the U will sell well it is only a matter of time. On the U, Nintendo is at 70% publisher ratio. The thread will be posted next week, it was already completed last Tuesday.

So let me get it... 3rd party support is secondary for Nintendo platforms (I do agree with that). So how to explain that N64, GC and WiiU never done great on the LTD of HW (altough the N64 and GC had a healthy sale on the SW side for nintendo)???



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

padib said:
DonFerrari said:

So let me get it... 3rd party support is secondary for Nintendo platforms (I do agree with that). So how to explain that N64, GC and WiiU never done great on the LTD of HW (altough the N64 and GC had a healthy sale on the SW side for nintendo)???

I'll give you a sneak peak of the thread, it will explain some of it.

You will notice that for N64 had 58% and cube 38% publisher ratio. If you look at the total software sold by Nintendo on those two platforms, it's low (130m and 80m respectively). The U is currently at 70% (that is high) and has sold 23.71m units. This means that when Nintendo software does poorly on a console, the whole console does poorly.

Nintendo

Home consoles (Nintendo)

Platform Platform sales Sales as publisher Ratio
NES 501.48 189.52 37.79%
SNES 379.06 97.28 25.66%
N64 225.16 129.95 57.71%
GC 208.61 79.47 38.10%
Wii 918.40 396.44 43.17%
WiiU   23.71 17.32 73.05%
Totals -> 2256.42 909.98 40.33%

So when a Nintendo console ends up selling badly, it's often when Nintendo is not able to sell their own games. If the U had niche games like the cube's experimental offerings, I'd understand your point. But the U is being offered every game (not just in name, but also in content quality) that makes Nintendo consoles sell. So, the result should be that SW sales will also be high.


N64 have more Nintendo games sold than Snes and even tough it done worst in general... Your whole point revolves around Wii doing good... But its average is close to the other less selling console... actually nintendo doing 40% shows that it depends 60% on third parties (less than PS and even less than Xbox) but still depends to do "great".



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."