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Forums - Sales - Will WiiU or Kinect X1 ever pass LTD PSV?

DonFerrari on 24 May 2014
Skidonti said:

The WiiU is significantly ahead of the Vita aligned launch. Even with Nintendo's conservative estimates it will be ahead over 1.7 million units for 29 months. I'd think it quite plausible, aiming above Nintendo's expectations, it'd be well over two million ahead for first two and a half years.

I don't think Vita will have the legs of the PSP in Japan (PSP only sold 35% LT in 36 months, I think Vita 50% LT in 36 months is more likely and even generous. I guess it could, though.)

Even if leg ratios somehow match PSP's outside Japan (Why in god's name should they be anywhere near that high? I'd need to see  massive curveball to say it could.), we're looking at sub 16 million LT for the Vita. So Vita's probable best case is I think WiiU's probable worst case.

For Kinect who knows... it'll have almost 5 million pack in users, but it would still need to sell 8-10 million solo to start beating the Vita for sure. I think that's best case scenario for it. I can't see why people would go out of their way to buy it.

PSVita probably will have weak legs, but WiiU seems to be in an even worst situation so far.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Skidonti on 24 May 2014
DonFerrari said:
Skidonti said:

PSVita probably will have weak legs, but WiiU seems to be in an even worst situation so far.

We'll see. It'll obviously grow this year, but I think most of 2015 will be up YoY again as well. So even trailing off fast with two really weak years after that puts it ahead of where I think Vita will be.



DonFerrari on 24 May 2014
Skidonti said:
DonFerrari said:

PSVita probably will have weak legs, but WiiU seems to be in an even worst situation so far.

We'll see. It'll obviously grow this year, but I think most of 2015 will be up YoY again as well. So even trailing off fast with two really weak years after that puts it ahead of where I think Vita will be.

So you think this will be the first Nintendo console to bounce twice from peak and valley?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Skidonti on 24 May 2014
DonFerrari said:
Skidonti said:

 

We'll see. It'll obviously grow this year, but I think most of 2015 will be up YoY again as well. So even trailing off fast with two really weak years after that puts it ahead of where I think Vita will be.

So you think this will be the first Nintendo console to bounce twice from peak and valley?

Sorry, I don't follow exactly what you mean.



DonFerrari on 24 May 2014
Skidonti said:
DonFerrari said:
Skidonti said:
 

 

We'll see. It'll obviously grow this year, but I think most of 2015 will be up YoY again as well. So even trailing off fast with two really weak years after that puts it ahead of where I think Vita will be.

So you think this will be the first Nintendo console to bounce twice from peak and valley?

Sorry, I don't follow exactly what you mean.


WiiU have peaked and then started dropping, is having a small peak now and probably will decend... do you expect it to bounce again?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Skidonti on 24 May 2014
DonFerrari said:
Skidonti said:
DonFerrari said:

So you think this will be the first Nintendo console to bounce twice from peak and valley?

Sorry, I don't follow exactly what you mean.


WiiU have peaked and then started dropping, is having a small peak now and probably will decend... do you expect it to bounce again?

Well, I expect 2014 will sell more than 2013, and I think 2015 will sell more than 2014.
Example Sales:

2012: 2.3

2013: 3.2

2014: 3.9

2015: 4.2

2016: 2.0

2017: .7



AZWification on 24 May 2014

Vita sales are really awful in the US/Europe, so it's not going to be that hard for the WiiU to surprass it!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

DonFerrari on 24 May 2014
Skidonti said:
DonFerrari said:
Skidonti said:
DonFerrari said:
 

So you think this will be the first Nintendo console to bounce twice from peak and valley?

Sorry, I don't follow exactly what you mean.


WiiU have peaked and then started dropping, is having a small peak now and probably will decend... do you expect it to bounce again?

Well, I expect 2014 will sell more than 2013, and I think 2015 will sell more than 2014.
Example Sales:

2012: 2.3

2013: 3.2

2014: 3.9

2015: 4.2

2016: 2.0

2017: .7


So you also expect that for the first time in quite sometime Nintendo will go above their estimative... 



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

hunter_alien on 24 May 2014
NintendoPie said:
EricFabian said:
I still think Wii U will outsell Vita. Nintendo wants 3,6mil for next year and Sony hopes 0,77 (?) for PSP + Vita. And Kinect will easily do this

Is Sony seriously expecting only 770k? If that's true (which it doesn't seem to be), maybe that's fact enough for Seece.

They are expecting 3.5 million portables for the entire fiscal year, which means ~3 milion Vitas and 500k PSPs.

http://gamingeverything.com/details-from-sonys-latest-financial-results-3/

That 700k shipment is rubbish info.

That means that the Vita will probably reach 10 million sold this yera, and puts it on track to finish ahead of the WiiU.

If MK8 and Smash dont push it ahead of the Vita, then nothing will. IMO Vita will sell the most followed by the WiiU and Kinect in 3rd.



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DonFerrari on 24 May 2014
hunter_alien said:
NintendoPie said:
EricFabian said:
I still think Wii U will outsell Vita. Nintendo wants 3,6mil for next year and Sony hopes 0,77 (?) for PSP + Vita. And Kinect will easily do this

Is Sony seriously expecting only 770k? If that's true (which it doesn't seem to be), maybe that's fact enough for Seece.

They are expecting 3.5 million portables for the entire fiscal year, which means ~3 milion Vitas and 500k PSPs.

http://gamingeverything.com/details-from-sonys-latest-financial-results-3/

That 700k shipment is rubbish info.

That means that the Vita will probably reach 10 million sold this yera, and puts it on track to finish ahead of the WiiU.

If MK8 and Smash dont push it ahead of the Vita, then nothing will. IMO Vita will sell the most followed by the WiiU and Kinect in 3rd.

We have an agreement here. Vita seems a little less doomed than the other 2.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."