I think the most important number here, is not the lead of overall hardware sales, but rather the month to month pace of system sales.

 If If Xbox maintains a 6 million console lead over PS3 over 5 years, then 50 million over 44 million isn't that big of a deal.  But if Xbox continued to outpace PS3 over 5 years, then you see those crazy numbers where Xbox will have a definite lead of 70 million to 30 milllion or whatever.

I saw Wii numbers jump today from 6.66 to 6.92 Million. Did anyone catch what the other numbers were for Xbox and PS3? If PS3 is keeping pace with Wii, then it's doing ok. But if its getting outpaced, then its digging itself a hole.

 Xbox still has a 3 million unit lead over Wii, so if it can match Wii's pace with big games, then it could nurse its lead to victory.

Wii is pretty much outpacing both the 360 and PS3 in all the major markets

The 360 will need a miracle to hang onto its lead. As more Wii games hit in Japan and Europe, the Wii's momentum can only increase, and that doesn't even include the fact that Wiis are still very hard to find right now. The 360 could hang onto a US lead, but a worldwide lead just ain't gonna happen.

Halo 3 + GTAIV could be that miracle. I think the 360 will do quite well at the end of this year. However, if Nintendo releases all their big guns (and gets their production working), it might still not be enough.

In the weekly data you can see the actual pace for at least America and Japan. It shows, that the Wii is outselling PS3 and XBOX360 constantly in both regions. More difficult for XBOX360 vs. PS3. XBOX360 sells faster in the USA, PS3 in Japan. To declare a winner WW in momentum we would need weekly data for the other regions.

why? Do you think the 360 will just stop releasing games?

This seems to be a common misconception around these forums, "when XYZ happens console A will take off" like the other companies are going to sit there and let it happen. 360 will keep plenty of releases going. 

The Wii will probably overtake the 360 in 2008, but that would be because of the Worldwide appeal of the Wii, when compared to the USA only appeal of the 360.

Obviously they'll keep releasing games, but the next six months are lining up to be outstanding for the 360. I think that those games will help MS hold off Nintendo, who is outselling them in every market, and in Japan 20 fold.

Once those games are done, I expect the Wii to surpass it in overall sales. I just don't see how anyone can hold off the Wii for an extended period of time given its mass appeal and price point.

I'm not knocking the 360s upcoming sales, not at all. I just think that the Wii is unstoppable.

Besides, I said the Wii wouldn't overtake the 360 until 2008, unlike some people here who think it's going to magically happen in July, despite the fact that it would be hard for Nintendo to manufacture enough units to do so, even if MS stopped manufacturing the 360 today. :D

The odd thing about the 360 is that despite most significant game releases, the hardware sales don't vary much. The only 2 games that I would say that DEFINITELY will affect the hardware sales are GTA4 and Halo 3. The other titles, while they will do very well, may or may not have a significant impact on the hardware sales.

it could be quite possible that the xbox360 might be at a saturation point. The people who buy games like GTA4 and Halo 3 would probably be the same ones who bought GTA3 and Halo2, and those people might already own Xbox360's. How many people who are *new* to videogames would geek out over GTA4 or Halo3? Probably a number, but it probably doesn't compare to the number of people who have played through the prequels.