This thread is still going? Will you guys stop indulging the OP? He's been completely ignoring facts and logic this entire thread. It's like trying to talk to a brick wall.
Sigs are dumb. And so are you!
The gap is already about 500k. Probably a lot more after May NPD hits. So 10k/WK x 50 weeks minimum to close gap. How many weeks left in 2014 again? :)
The gap will hit 1m+ by 12/31/14
| Arkaign said: The gap is already about 500k. Probably a lot more after May NPD hits. So 10k/WK x 50 weeks minimum to close gap. How many weeks left in 2014 again? :) The gap will hit 1m+ by 12/31/14 |
I bet it won't.
The gap will Shrink to ~ 100k by end of 2014.
| Fusioncode said: This thread is still going? Will you guys stop indulging the OP? He's been completely ignoring facts and logic this entire thread. It's like trying to talk to a brick wall. |
I think it is alive more for the laughing material... no one is really making this serious (besides maybe the OP poster) we are all laughing about the crazyness here.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
The gap may be big now, but I feel that it will close a lot during the holiday season.
Both consoles have similar manufacturing rates and I would think that both consoles will sell-out during Nov and Dec.
There might be a lot more Xbones on retail shelves, but that would mean that Xbone will sell more during the holidays.
I can actually think of a scenario where xb1 wins in the fall, and that's with a $299 price.
There are not infinite people willing to pay $399 + online + game level of pricing. You are mostly talking about hardcore fanbase and wealthy casuals at that level. The general market will come at $299 and under.
$299 a sellout of one is possible again, $399 not a chance in hell. Stock will be massive this holiday as well, and weirdly ps4 may even have an advantage thanks to the stock blunders of early 2014 for xb1. They made waaaaay too many, resulting in more than could be sold through, and then they had to idle the lines. Then the diskinect model was added. It adds up to stale inventory that could accelerate into the fall with the supply suddenly becoming short.
| Arkaign said: I can actually think of a scenario where xb1 wins in the fall, and that's with a $299 price. There are not infinite people willing to pay $399 + online + game level of pricing. You are mostly talking about hardcore fanbase and wealthy casuals at that level. The general market will come at $299 and under. $299 a sellout of one is possible again, $399 not a chance in hell. Stock will be massive this holiday as well, and weirdly ps4 may even have an advantage thanks to the stock blunders of early 2014 for xb1. They made waaaaay too many, resulting in more than could be sold through, and then they had to idle the lines. Then the diskinect model was added. It adds up to stale inventory that could accelerate into the fall with the supply suddenly becoming short. |
I don't think investors will be too happy with ANOTHER gen of making billions in losses. I do believe MS stated clearly that this is the gen where they expect to turn a profit on the Xbox division.
With the Xbone already costing more than the PS4 to manufacture and the PS4 only making a few dollars in profit off hardware sales with its current pricetag, I highly doubt either company will drop the price to $299.
That is true, and if Microsoft doesn't cut to $299 this holiday season along with amazing inventory management there is no way they're going to win NPD. The desire for next gen is tempered by economic reality, and every sale at $399 eliminates a higher income consumer from the pool. Those left in the potential buyers pool are less and less wealthy.
Look at sales history, the $300 barrier in the USA is a HUGE one. It's basically a 2nd race. Last gen was odd because ps3 was late and god awful expensive, so ms held to $299/$399 for ages. This gen $399 was hit within months, and $449+game even earlier. You're correct in the probability that $299 is unlikely in 2014, but I'll bet improved bom numbers in 2015 will make it possible then. It will be massive.
Barring a miracle this Nov/DEC will see lower ps4/xb1 sales than 2013. WiiU should see a sizable boost compared to same time last year though if an expected price cut comes. $249 bundle would attract both value buyers and 2nd console hardcore guys who already have either a 4 or a one.
TheDrill said:
I included Destny to show that the percentage difference in preorders is consistent with the total hardware sold, and still very competitive in the US.
|
In other words you you ignored the games that didn't fit your argument. Although Destiny doesn't really fit it all that well. Especially when Destiny got 2/3 of its preorders last year when hardware was closer.
In the OP you said that it would take 32 weeks or 8 months. That is not "a few months". Those VGC numbers were also inaccurate which plenty of people tried to tell you. With the current numbers it would catch up on the 44th week, and that will likely increase next week. It will increase even more in all likelihood when we get May NPD numbers. Right now VGC has it down against their April numbers, but up against the NPD april numbers. If VGC brings the X1 numbers in line with the April NPD that will add another 4 weeks. "A few months" is looking like almost a year. Now obviously real world sales won't be a constant 10k a week, but that was your scenario.
Here is a rundown of the market share between PS4 and XB1
From the beginning...
| XB1 & PS4 Only | XB1 & PS4 Only | |||||||||
| PS4 - Cumulative Market Share | XB1 - Cumulative Market Share | |||||||||
| Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | |
| ESTIMATE | 67-76% | 55-65% | 75-85% | >90% | ESTIMATE | 24-33% | 35-45% | 15-25% | <10% | |
| 4-Jan-14 | 58.9% | 51.7% | 68.6% | - | 4-Jan-14 | 41.1% | 48.3% | 31.4% | - | |
| 11-Jan-14 | 59.2% | 51.9% | 69.0% | - | 11-Jan-14 | 40.8% | 48.1% | 31.0% | - | |
| 18-Jan-14 | 59.5% | 52.0% | 69.3% | - | 18-Jan-14 | 40.5% | 48.0% | 30.7% | - | |
| 25-Jan-14 | 59.8% | 52.3% | 69.6% | - | 25-Jan-14 | 40.2% | 47.7% | 30.4% | - | |
| 1-Feb-14 | 60.1% | 52.6% | 70.0% | - | 1-Feb-14 | 39.9% | 47.4% | 30.0% | - | |
| 8-Feb-14 | 60.5% | 52.9% | 70.4% | - | 8-Feb-14 | 39.5% | 47.1% | 29.6% | - | |
| 15-Feb-14 | 60.7% | 53.0% | 70.7% | - | 15-Feb-14 | 39.3% | 47.0% | 29.3% | - | |
| 22-Feb-14 | 62.2% | 53.1% | 70.9% | 100.0% | 22-Feb-14 | 37.8% | 46.9% | 29.1% | 0.0% | |
| 1-Mar-14 | 62.5% | 53.0% | 71.1% | 100.0% | 1-Mar-14 | 37.5% | 47.0% | 28.9% | 0.0% | |
| 8-Mar-14 | 62.4% | 53.0% | 71.0% | 100.0% | 8-Mar-14 | 37.6% | 47.0% | 29.0% | 0.0% | |
| 15-Mar-14 | 62.0% | 52.5% | 70.6% | 100.0% | 15-Mar-14 | 38.0% | 47.5% | 29.4% | 0.0% | |
| 22-Mar-14 | 62.2% | 52.7% | 70.7% | 100.0% | 22-Mar-14 | 37.8% | 47.3% | 29.3% | 0.0% | |
| 29-Mar-14 | 62.4% | 52.8% | 70.9% | 100.0% | 29-Mar-14 | 37.6% | 47.2% | 29.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5-Apr-14 | 62.5% | 52.9% | 71.1% | 100.0% | 5-Apr-14 | 37.5% | 47.1% | 28.9% | 0.0% | |
| 12-Apr-14 | 62.5% | 52.8% | 71.1% | 100.0% | 12-Apr-14 | 37.5% | 47.2% | 28.9% | 0.0% | |
| 19-Apr-14 | 62.7% | 53.1% | 71.3% | 100.0% | 19-Apr-14 | 37.3% | 46.9% | 28.7% | 0.0% | |
| 26-Apr-14 | 62.8% | 53.2% | 71.4% | 100.0% | 26-Apr-14 | 37.2% | 46.8% | 28.6% | 0.0% | |
| 3-May-14 | 62.9% | 53.3% | 71.5% | 100.0% | 3-May-14 | 37.1% | 46.7% | 28.5% | 0.0% | |
| 10-May-14 | 63.0% | 53.3% | 71.6% | 100.0% | 10-May-14 | 37.0% | 46.7% | 28.4% | 0.0% | |
| 17-May-14 | 63.1% | 53.4% | 71.7% | 100.0% | 17-May-14 | 36.9% | 46.6% | 28.3% | 0.0% |
Annual market share
| XB1 & PS4 Only | XB1 & PS4 Only | |||||||||
| PS4 - Year to Date Market Share | XB1 - Year to Date Market Share | |||||||||
| Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | Week | Global | US | EU | Japan | |
| ESTIMATE | 67-76% | 55-65% | 75-85% | >90% | ESTIMATE | 24-33% | 35-45% | 15-25% | <10% | |
| 4-Jan-14 | 61.6% | 48.0% | 73.7% | - | 4-Jan-14 | 38.4% | 52.0% | 26.3% | - | |
| 11-Jan-14 | 63.8% | 51.5% | 75.1% | - | 11-Jan-14 | 36.2% | 48.5% | 24.9% | - | |
| 18-Jan-14 | 65.2% | 53.1% | 76.2% | - | 18-Jan-14 | 34.8% | 46.9% | 23.8% | - | |
| 25-Jan-14 | 66.3% | 55.1% | 76.8% | - | 25-Jan-14 | 33.7% | 44.9% | 23.2% | - | |
| 1-Feb-14 | 67.3% | 56.9% | 77.5% | - | 1-Feb-14 | 32.7% | 43.1% | 22.5% | - | |
| 8-Feb-14 | 68.2% | 58.0% | 78.4% | - | 8-Feb-14 | 31.8% | 42.0% | 21.6% | - | |
| 15-Feb-14 | 68.6% | 58.2% | 78.9% | - | 15-Feb-14 | 31.4% | 41.8% | 21.1% | - | |
| 22-Feb-14 | 73.0% | 58.2% | 79.2% | 100.0% | 22-Feb-14 | 27.0% | 41.8% | 20.8% | 0.0% | |
| 1-Mar-14 | 72.9% | 57.3% | 79.1% | 100.0% | 1-Mar-14 | 27.1% | 42.7% | 20.9% | 0.0% | |
| 8-Mar-14 | 71.4% | 56.5% | 78.3% | 100.0% | 8-Mar-14 | 28.6% | 43.5% | 21.7% | 0.0% | |
| 15-Mar-14 | 69.3% | 54.2% | 76.5% | 100.0% | 15-Mar-14 | 30.7% | 45.8% | 23.5% | 0.0% | |
| 22-Mar-14 | 69.2% | 54.8% | 76.3% | 100.0% | 22-Mar-14 | 30.8% | 45.2% | 23.7% | 0.0% | |
| 29-Mar-14 | 69.2% | 54.9% | 76.4% | 100.0% | 29-Mar-14 | 30.8% | 45.1% | 23.6% | 0.0% | |
| 5-Apr-14 | 69.1% | 55.0% | 76.6% | 100.0% | 5-Apr-14 | 30.9% | 45.0% | 23.4% | 0.0% | |
| 12-Apr-14 | 68.7% | 54.6% | 76.4% | 100.0% | 12-Apr-14 | 31.3% | 45.4% | 23.6% | 0.0% | |
| 19-Apr-14 | 69.0% | 55.4% | 76.6% | 100.0% | 19-Apr-14 | 31.0% | 44.6% | 23.4% | 0.0% | |
| 26-Apr-14 | 69.0% | 55.5% | 76.6% | 100.0% | 26-Apr-14 | 31.0% | 44.5% | 23.4% | 0.0% | |
| 3-May-14 | 69.0% | 55.7% | 76.6% | 100.0% | 3-May-14 | 31.0% | 44.3% | 23.4% | 0.0% | |
| 10-May-14 | 69.0% | 55.8% | 76.8% | 100.0% | 10-May-14 | 31.0% | 44.2% | 23.2% | 0.0% | |
| 17-May-14 | 69.0% | 55.9% | 76.9% | 100.0% | 17-May-14 | 31.0% | 44.1% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
Summary
In US, PS4 has gradually increased from 51.7% to 53.4% overall, and from 48% to 55.9% this year.
In US, XB1 has gradually decreased from 48.3% to 46.6% overall, and from 52% to 44.1% this year.
Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%
About Us |
Terms of Use |
Privacy Policy |
Advertise |
Staff |
Contact
Display As Desktop
Display As Mobile
© 2006-2024 VGChartz Ltd. All rights reserved.
