Nintendo hasn't hit thier forcasts in years... And you are predicting higher than them? What do you know that they don't? We should replace Iwata with you.

This tells me:

1. There will be no redesign for WiiU ala GBA->GBA-SP this year.
2. The only WiiU potential million sellers they have lined up for this year is Mario Kart 8 and Smash.
3. There will be no pricedrop.
4. No huge spendings on marketing.

It could also be this amazing new Miyamoto ip has moved to maybe the QOL platform, and they will not be making a huge marketing push and will rather ride it out and try to be profitable banking on the 3DS/2DS making them some money.

They also should have a pretty good idea what 3rd parties have lined up for the WiiU in the second half, and that it's probably only Just Dance and Skylanders type games.

It's amazing (in a bad way) how Nintendo has been able to go from their most successful console ever to what looks to be their least successful one.

And as other have said, I doubt Nintendo will bring a new home console in the near (2 years) future as the competition would simply destroy it before launch. It's a really bad situation.

I'd say the evidence of potential "surrender" lies with their software forecast.  They are only expecting 6% growth YoY with MK8, Smash, and the natural software boost consoles get as they get a larger install base.

Software shipments in their second full fiscal years

PS3 up 79.1%
Wii up 58.5%

That was even without the disastrous first full fiscal year of software that the Wii U had.  Maybe they are just lowballing the number, but if not it could suggest that software releases will be thin outside of what has already been announced.

Again, that's why they have to think laterally. Nintendo isn't built to fight the likes of Sony and Microsoft on their terms, and that has been clear since the dawn of PlayStation. Every time Nintendo has tried to fight, they've done worse and worse. The one time they didn't was when they exploded.

Now yes, it's not as simple as saying "Well, we'll just make another Wii/DS," but the ingredients are there. The Quality of Life platform in that sense is a very smart move (implemented right, of course. We know nothing about it). But the core of their business is still in the traditional gaming sphere, which is under assault from several quarters.

1) They need to accept that no handheld system can get mainstream penetration anymore without being integrated to Windows, iOS, or Android (with Nintendo's style, Droid is the best)

2) Put all or mostly all of their software resources into this new platform. No more splitting efforts.

3) Thus make it possible to put the games on the big-screen for people who are accustomed to that.

Focus on low-cost, optimizing their long-term returns on Wii U tech. Put maybe a graphics booster of some sort in the home dock for maybe a higher-end experience for those who choose it. Nintendo experience, get the Android software support, lots of different stuff going on there.

The problem of the lateral thinking is that it doesn't guarantee success. Wii and DS were successful, but WiiU has resulted in the opposite (I see the 3DS a mid term of both ways of thinking).

As for the rest of your post, and judging from past Nintendo briefings and interviews, we can say that they are already doing that

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=177610

For a new console to be ready by the holiday season next year, they would have had to have been pretty deep into the R&D process right after the Wii U came out. 2016 sounds a lot more realistic.

I also finds this very low.. But one thing.

Not long ago nintendo started a big share buyback program.. mayby thay are not done..  (Higher estimate=Lesser share to Nintendo

Just looked at nintendo share value.. Actully they get 1/3 more at the moment than the norm 2 month before they annunced the program.. 1/3 more share.. thats pretty big.. could be a "motiv" to just keep to a "trend" estimate.. just saying :)

They need to start fully supporting firstly.

I think it's probably better for Nintendo fans to just assume that Nintendo made this low estimate in good faith and it's likely they don't see a big turn around coming in the future rather than postulate that they're concocting some kind of dubious scheme to decrease their share price to better fit their own needs which sounds dishonest at best and if it isn't illegal already it certainly should be.