Why did you have to be so slow with HD, Nintendo? WHY!?!?

Assuming Kart 8 & Smash are of typical Nintendo high quality,then it all hinges upon the online/fun experience of those titles. So if Kart & Smash are a big hit,Wii U will easily cruise to GC level sales. But if these games don't move units, it might be time to consider moving the Zelda, Metroid and next 3D Mario to the new console in 2016.

GameCube was very front-loaded, though i'll agree the window is narrowing to change the fate on that.

Which is quite sad, honestly. Nintendo managed to top themselves in creating a system that could be more directionless than the GameCube, after finally making the system that got it all *right*.

I said yes, because I believe the Wii U will be on the market longer than the Gamecube was, and could peak in it's 3rd year. It's only the second year, and the big titles haven't hit yet. Smash will technically release in Wii U's 3rd year, as will Zelda, so I think it will peak there, and probably close to double those sales over it's remaining lifetime, getting close to but not quite 30 mil. Of course, the marketing has to improve drastically.

Yes, I honestly think so.

The gamecube was just a flop having followed the N64.

The Wii U had to follow the hugely successful Wii. Let's be honest, most people who own a Wii don't even know what a Wii U is. When their Wii breaks or becomes obsolete (in there eyes it would have to be useless to merit replacing), they will buy a Wii U. This may take a few years. The Wii U will be the latest bloomer we will ever see. At some point "the Wii is dead, long live the Wii U". It plays wii games and if you own a pile of Wii stuff and your wii breaks.....well.....

The Wii U is yet to see it's best pieces of software in the form of Bayonetta 2, Mario Kart and super smash bros. The game cube was great, but it's mario kart was weak. It also offered very little compared to the PS2. At least the Wii U has something different and it plays wii games.

The Wii U has no momentum i.e it is in few homes. Nintendo sells by a kid (or there dad/mom) going there friends house, trying it and wanting one. A ps4 or xbox sells because of what they are. The Nintendo always looks less cool in adverts, always lacks luster on the shelf, but once momentum grows, it will bloom into late gen.

Speaking of late gen, this cycle will be LOOOONG. Lets talk future capabilities. Simply possibilities not things that Will happen but things that could.

1. The Wii U uses tech for it's gamepad similar to the tech used for the virtual reality headset link.

2. The Wii U can function as a streaming device for a pc to tv link.

3. The gamepad looks like and can function awesomely as a F1 style steering wheel.(project cars and mario kart, I'm looking at you). This is an amount of "Cool" that could catch on with kids, teens and adults. That "cool" that the wii had. Just a little bit of it anyway for driving enthusiasts.

4.  The Gamepad would be epic for a stragety game either turn based or otherwise. Check out the likes of the upcoming hex heroes.

5. The 3DS has a MASSIVE install base. Nintendo will think of a way to connect both worlds (Wii U and 3ds) to bring 3DS owners on board.

6. Lets me honest, those of us who now have kids and a wife. We don't have piles of money anymore and we don't have time. If we own a playstation, our very young kids can't play it with us and our wives ignore it. At best they might play crash bandicoot 2. We own a nintendo Wii U and we can play black ops 2 on the game pad, can play games with our kids local multiplayer, can play mario or whatever with the wife rather than her hogging the tv watching revenge or whatever, but hey, we are still broke. But in a few years (when the wii breaks) we will be able to afford a Wii U.

 The gamecube was ugly, purple, was marketed horribly, the controller looked cheap, lacked a dvd player when that was important and existed in a time when playstation was king. The Wii U is nice looking, black or white, marketed horribly, controller looks "odd", lacks a blu ray player when no one really needs one or has one already and exists in a time when playstation is king.

Close call but Wii U will edge it. Then again, the Wii U could suddenly spike. Who knows.

I think it will, because 1) I don't believe this generation will be any shorter than the last one, thus following its spread out sales patterns, and 2) on the sixth generation, both the XB and the GC were very front loaded.

I don't expect it to outsell GC, but it still has some small windows to change.

MK8 & SSB need to sell to a lot more than the current install base, and create a lot of momentum. Right now I think 2014 will be peak year for Wii U, as PS4 & XB1 will get more games & more mind share by 2015.

If Nintendo did what the 360 did with the Kinect then MAYBE.

And if the console gaming audience that enjoy Nintendo games have expanded and are not being lured away with Smart Phone gaming, then MAYBE as well.

I doubt it. I'm guessing it tops off around 20 million. So it will at least be close. It's easier to be front loaded as the Gamecube was. Now, the WIi U has to deal with loss of nearly all third party support due to a poor first 18 months. And it's hard to cut costs because of the Gamepad, while removing the Gamepad would hurt as well.

But I do feel if the Wii U had Smash and Mario Kart 8 out in the first year, before the X-box and PS4, it could have twice the sales it has now at least. Nintendo blew a big opportunity that first year.

I think it will. Gamecube software wasnt all that compelling! Launched with a luigi game then a weird cel shaded loz the hen a weakish mario kart.