The prophecy has come to pass at last. Aside from a few super-blockbuster franchises, the AAA business model is no longer sustainable.

It's all about the indies now, baby.

MGS and Final fantasy were never sony franchises. They were exclusive by choice. Sony said they have 20 exclusives in 2014. So there's still a lot more.

Wait about 50 days.

Either are possible, I guess we'll see.

You're correct in that Sony does not have to write one $500m check in one quarter and be done with it.  But, those costs are substantial, even when spread across two years worth of quarters.  They are also very conservative, the bigger games these days can cost upwards of $100 million per game.

Which ones would be working on just ports, and what game would they be porting?

OP is going to try to grow a garden, but give up because the seeds don't do anything after a few hours.

Gooch? Gooch is a PlayStation supporter, he was just posting this thread to see the reactions lol.

I couldn't possibly name them.  Just as no one can name the high budget/high quality/high sales/*insert your preferred AAA metric here* games that any of the others are working on - not being Sony Computer Entertainment's CFO and all!

Naughty Dog - Uncharted PS4

Polyphony - GT 7

Santa Monica - Cory Barlog's game (God of War IV also??)

Guerilla - Brand new AAA IP already confirmed.

San Diego - I think these guys only do MLB soooo yeah.

Sucker Punch - Def not doing ports, AAA game next (inFAMOUS 3??)

Quantic Dream - Working on AAA PS4 game Confirmed - http://www.dualshockers.com/2014/04/20/quantic-dream-working-on-aaa-ps4-game-with-real-time-hair-and-cloth-and-physically-based-materials/

Media Molecule - Working on AAA title confirmed - http://www.officialplaystationmagazine.co.uk/2012/06/26/media-molecule-working-on-next-aaa-title-involving-different-platforms/

London Studio - New game. Ad says they want someone with AAA game experience - http://www.dualshockers.com/2014/04/16/sony-london-studio-working-on-morpheus-title-with-high-quality-audio-content-based-on-unity/

Japan Studio - The Last Guardian PS4??I dunno lol

Sony Bend - Job ad that says worked on AAA games is prefered, they are working on a AAA PS4 game - http://www.dualshockers.com/2014/02/07/sony-bends-unannounced-ps4-game-to-provide-a-cinematic-experience-and-advanced-animation/

Guerilla Cambridge - I think these guys are a handheld developer.

The problem is, that doesn't really tell us much, except that we don't know much!

As we've seen in this thread, what constitutes AAA varies.  You seem to feel it is AAA if a studio says so (happy to be corrected if you have a more specific view).

One thing we do know based on the PS+ terms of use is that Sony seems to believe it consitutes a high-rating game, which in turn (to them) consitutes a 70+ meta.  Now, whatever we don't agree on, I am sure we can both agree that the vast majority of users on this site would not believe that 70+ metagames should receive anything like a AAA labelling (excepting those users who explicitely view AAA as an indication of budget).  So at best we know that Sony hopes that many of these studios are going to produce a game that could be called AAA - but we also know that regardless of how that turns out, Sony is likely to call the product AAA.

Hell, I am inclined to call Infamous: Second Son AAA.  I used to consider AAA games to be big-budget titles over 90+ with system selling capability (by that metric, the WiiU is winning the gaming war).  I don't necessarily believe that now. But many gamers do!

I guess my point is this: Right now the PS4 does not have much in the way of impressive, big budget experiences period, letalone exclusive ones. Will they get some? Sure.  But there is virtually no chance those studios are all going to produce at least one such title - not all Sony studios are Naughty Dog after all!