I think it'll manage 1 million sales lifetime maybe 1.5.

That's what you say when you have no choice in the matter ;)

yes

It's actually pretty good, when was the last time a casual game hit top 10?

then carl would deserve a ban, because only you should make " X Sony game is a MAJOR flop, we need to talk about it". 

I believe its a combination of Rare wanting to tackle Kinect because they are the first party group that probably would put their first effort first.  From the work they have done I believe they succeeded.  There games are high quality, well developed and fun.  I do believe that they have the option to do what they want so it will be good to see what else they want to tackle in the next few years.  The fact that MS is stocking them up to more than one team might mean we see more output from Rare which probably be good for MS and their fans.

Kinect Sports Rivals is more aimed at a wider market, the original was released at a time when that part of the market cared. These people don't stick around long enough to buy sequels and new hardware to play them on, just ask Nintendo.

I'm sure they wanted to make a Kinect game, but at the same time it's also very likely Microsoft wanted them to make another hit Kinect Sports title.

Hmm, well it was expected and I expect weak sales in all other regions as well. The kinect fad is over. I'm happy if it flops because then its more likely that Rare will make something else.

Even on Amazon USA, it's currently only the ninth best-selling Xbox One game, so I guess it's really not that popular.

Then again, it's true that this is simply not the time of the year for Kinect games. Kinect hardware and software sales were always huge around christmas and rather lousy the rest of the year, because Kinect hardware and software is typically being bought as christmas presents for small kids.