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Forums - Gaming - Do We Still believe XBO can't pass WiiU 2014?

Torillian said:

edit: scratch that I did the gap math wrong it's actually 1.6m at the moment.  Decreasing the time it would take to pass the WiiU to 1.1 years.  With that in mind and likely boosts from the holidays I'd put my money on Xone passing the WiiU this year.  

Only ~0.6 of this year left you know, and MK8 will change the numbers a bit.

I always thought they would be nick-in-neck end of the year though.



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Why is the op center aligned? I find it offputting. Anyway, I think wii u can maintain a slim lead over xbone which will be lost early 2015. It would not surprise me at all if xbone overtakes it before that though.



ICStats said:
Torillian said:

edit: scratch that I did the gap math wrong it's actually 1.6m at the moment.  Decreasing the time it would take to pass the WiiU to 1.1 years.  With that in mind and likely boosts from the holidays I'd put my money on Xone passing the WiiU this year.  

Only ~0.6 of this year left you know, and MK8 will change the numbers a bit.

I always thought they would be nick-in-neck end of the year though.


yeah I'm assuming that the holiday boosts will make up for the fact that we don't have a full 1.1 year left in 2014 (obviously).  MK8 could change that, but at the moment I'm assuming that it will have a relatively small baseline boost after the initial boost of a new large game release.  



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Torillian said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
Torillian said:

You really think it might never catch up?  I think at the current pace it will certainly catch up this year.  So unless Nintendo really does get a nitable boost from upcoming games to atleast put them on par with where XONE seems to sell on a weekly basis MS almost has to catch up at some point.  

I really don't. With ALL of 360's advantages nuetralized I don't see how they can have as great holiday seasons.  They already stuffed the retail channel this holiday.  Retailers aren't gonna take that years in a row.  Even at 30k more than what Wii U is doing weekly(last weeks extra) it would take 34 weeks to erase 1 million of that lead... so 3-4 years.  

Smash bros and MK will be available for Wii U. They wont raise the console to some crazy level but enough that x1 might never be able to erase that 3 million lead until nobody even cares anymore.  


Well the current gap seems to be 2.6m so that would be 87 weeks to pass or about 1.7 years.  That said the current weekly difference is more than more than 40k and we both know that seasonal changes particularly when the holidays come around will vastly change that weekly difference and I don't think it'll be in Nintendo's favor.  I'd be surprised if MS doesn't pass Nintendo in 2015 at the latest.  

I am a firm believer VGChartz over tracks the X1 sales. So what you see as 2.6 million difference I think is closer to 3.6. You are right about last weeks difference(looking something more like 46k instead of 30k) and that shaves quite a bit of time off. But that doesn't sway me much considering that I think it's overtracked. 

I don't think any game or series of games Nintendo releases will push Wii U above the GC.  I don't anything MS relesing any game or stream of games pushing X1 over the original Xbox.  I know many people think the latter a grievous statement but they spent 1.6 billion the quarter that TF launched and it hardly made a dent week to week.  They don't have the size 1st party that Sony did to dig themselves out of a PS3.  Their brand doesn't have the international audience the way Playstation does.  The battle is in the US and it's lost. I don't think they can continue to spend that way over the course of the console life without real spinoff ramifications.  PS4's userbase is moving at a point where exclusive content will become more and more expensive to compensate opportunity costs for not developing for PS4.  



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drake_tolu said:
For me only in 2016...


WiiU is projecting 3.6m shipping by March 31st 2015.  This means WiiU will almost definitely be below 10m by the end of 2014.  How much are you expecting XBO to have sold by the end of 2014?  I can understand you saying not until 2015 but do you have a reason for 2016?




       

JayWood2010 said:
drake_tolu said:
For me only in 2016...


WiiU is projecting 3.6m shipping by March 31st 2015.  This means WiiU will almost definitely be below 10m by the end of 2014.  How much are you expecting XBO to have sold by the end of 2014?  I can understand you saying not until 2015 but do you have a reason for 2016?

this is my opinion, not a fact.
Nintendo knows that the Wii U sells a lot more than 3.6 million, with the various games that come out and other price drop Wii U will sell more 10 milion, not only in March 2015, but even in December 2014.

His predictions are INTENTIONALLY low because they want to make it look like the future results of the Wii U like more aove the expectations.

Personally, i think Wii U will passed 10 milion on the end of November 2014, maybe will sold even 11 milion in this year.

I think XO will sold 8 milion on 31 December 2014.

In 2015, i think Wii U will sold more in 2014, and I think will be the year in which it reaches its peak, with 18/19 milion, maybe 20 milion(I think this is very difficult, but not impossible), and for me XO will sold 16 milion on 31 December 2014.

So, on half/the end of 2016, XO will passed Wii U, and the final number for me XO will sold only 10 milion of more of Wii U...

Repeat: this is my opinion.



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It might happen in November or December but i'm not sure if it's possible. Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros will outmatch anything Microsoft has to offer this year I think. Titanfall was supposed to be Xbox One's big game this year and its dropping off now



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I think it's pretty safe to assume the Wii U will be ahead for 2014. Well, unless MS does something drastic, like a $100 price cut. I'm just expecting a $50 cut in late 2014, as well as decreased sales over the summer. Wii U also has some heavy hitters in the coming months, which probably won't create huge boosts, but will still help the gap from decreasing as quickly. So, I think the Wii U will be able to remain slightly ahead. It'll probably be some time in early to mid 2015 before the One passes the Wii U.