TLDR in final paragraph.

If you've read my past threads about the xb1 and how the system is tied in to their strategy, this might be simpler, but for now I'll just summarize and try to explain how I came to my conclusion.

xb1 attacks a lot of markets simultaneously, and is their "foot in the door" or wedge support for much of their strategy going forward.
(this is based on original xb1 reveal)
1. to get the Azure Cloud into every major retailer
2. to control the secondary market (used games)
3. to gain software support for budding phone dev environment
4. to create all-encompassing OS
5. to act as a cable/media entertainment competitor
6. to get kinect 2 into households, where it can become a new app environment

MS has cut 2 of these things already...things that are actually pretty important to their overarcing strategy.
Now, given Microsoft's past history with modular xbox parts, this is what I predict for 2014/possibly 2015.

A return to the original xbox1 idea.
Online-only, new family-plan, larger hard-drive, and....drumroll...no blu-ray. I believe it may also come with a dvr built in.

Now, they aren't "scrapping" the xb1...instead they will be introducing a second SKU to sell alongside the xb1.
Current SKU will have a hard-drive upgrade, and come with a game, and stay at the 499$ price.
New SKU will have the same size hard-drive, game suite already installed (indies possibly), no BR Drive, sell at 399$...MS will introduce their digital trade-in program, or possibly digital auction house over azure. Family plan will be introduced, though it will be much different than what is expected (MS will say, "things have changed, so we had to change the way the family plan worked too").
They will also introduce upgradeable hard-drives, DVR system upgrade (possibly subscription based), and alternative Blu-Ray Drive add-on.

Do you agree? What do you think they'll do? Post below. 

That would be good, since you said it would be $399.

Way too many SKUs, it'll just confuse the consumer. Microsoft should offer an XBO with Kinect, and one without it. Simple.

? It's only 2 SKUs. Last gen they had 3-4 running concurrently.

There will not be a xb1 without kinect. It's not happening.

Kinect is integral to the strategy. MS already cut out two market strategies by abandoning the digital xb1.
1. Azure integration
2. Control of secondary market

Removing another pillar is the last thing they want to do. They will be focussing on strengthening those pillars, and trying to add other ones back in. They can afford a price cut depending on contracts and hardware. Kinect is worth too much potential earnings to remove. It'll save somewhere in the area of 100$, but it'll cost them more than that in the long term.

If they made a SKU without blu-ray it would be even less of an all-in-one console than it already is.

I have said it before but they blew it when they retraced their steps.
A discless SKU would have been +-30 bucks cheaper, been smaller and actually be a step in the right direction

I believe they still have a chance to do this. And I agree, it is a step in the right direction.

I'll be honest if it was up to selfish me i'd had made the XO purely for highspeed connections only, letting their first party devs experiment with offsite rendering and all the azure bullshit^^

Not going to happen most people over 95% still don't have or have access to fast enough internet to be interested in a drive less console. Also it wouldn't make much sense in the US where a lot of internet providers have data caps and X1 games are pretty massive in size and only going to get bigger as the generation goes on.

I think it would be a good idea but the chance of complete failure is just too high. It could very well backfire on them completely. "Digital only" is practically THE paradigm for DRM and no used games. And you know how well that went with the crowd last year.